New Poll: Christie Up 9!!

[Verily]

Frankly, investment banker & related occupations against anyone (other than an estate agent, perhaps) presumably equals trouble right now.

New Jersey has had tax revolts before and will have one again. The Democrats have been in power long enough--total control since 2003, dominance since 2001--for people to consider kicking them out.

Ah, so New Jersey might be serious this time. It's an off-year election also, so that presumably counts for something.

It's certainly possible, although I still am not convinced. Perhaps I just fail to see what Corzine has done wrong (as opposed to what plenty of other people have).

[DownWithTheLeft]

When it comes down to polling in NJ, its basically just an attempt to screw around with Republicans.

I'm inclined to agree and I hate letting myself fall into these traps year after year, but this one seems to be different.  We haven't led by this much in many many years.  Whitman didn't even lead by this much.  I think just this once I'll let myself get excited despite the rule I set for myself not to.

I agree with this, Kean never lead by anything close to this.  For the record FDU nailed Menendez's margin of victory in 2006 and had the exact, EXACT margin of 18 points for Obama.

[Zarn]

I would dare say that Christie winning would be good for both parties down the road.

[Lunar]

I would dare say that Christie winning would be good for both parties down the road.

Well, it'd be bad for the Democrats because it could be spun as very bad news for them, especially considering that they are currently at a disadvantage in the two other big races in 2009, New York City and Virginia (although VA may change, we'll see).

[DownWithTheLeft]

FDU is a terrible pollster.

I assumed so too, but the facts don't back that up

They nailed, and I mean exactly nailed, 2006 and 2008

[Smash255]

FDU is a terrible pollster.

I assumed so too, but the facts don't back that up

They nailed, and I mean exactly nailed, 2006 and 2008

When were those polls taken?  The polls right before Election day traditionally aren't all that bad in NJ.  However, further out its a different story.  Granted its the same in almost all races, polls closer in are going to be more accurate than polls further out, but NJ takes it to a whole new extreme in that the NJ polls this far out are horrendous.  Also while Kean's margin may not have been quite this high it was pretty close and that was much closer to election day than this poll.

[DownWithTheLeft]

For reference, the March polls in Menendez/Kean showed the following:

D+4, R+2, D+5 or an average of D+2.3

Also known as an 11.3% swing from Kean's numbers to Christie's

[Rowan]

Just for a little heads up, Rasmussen should be in the field this week(most likely Friday) and will have results by Sunday.

[Rowan]

In case anyone was wondering, Christie already has the line in Essex, Union, Middlesex, Monmouth, Burlington, and Camden Counties.

He will easily waltz through the primary without having to spend much if any money, which will leave him in good position against Corzine.

[DownWithTheLeft]

In case anyone was wondering, Christie already has the line in Essex, Union, Middlesex, Monmouth, Burlington, and Camden Counties.

I believe he has Bergen or near sown it up too

[Former Moderate]

I would dare say that Christie winning would be good for both parties down the road.

Well, it'd be bad for the Democrats because it could be spun as very bad news for them, especially considering that they are currently at a disadvantage in the two other big races in 2009, New York City and Virginia (although VA may change, we'll see).

No question, Democrats losing New Jersey is bad for Democrats at the decade level.  Though New Jersey has independent redistricting, the current State Legislature lines were drawn to favor Democrats, so perhaps this means the next set of lines will be more fair.  In any case, new lines mean a high number of retirements in 2013.

In any case, the main problem for New Jersey Republicans since 2001 has been the fact that they simply have no money and no major fundraiser to help level the field—the gap is surprisingly brutal.  With a GOP Governor, the party has a real shot to gain back ground they never should have lost in the first place.

[Zarn]

I said down the road, not immediately.

[DownWithTheLeft]

I cannot believe how little attention this race is getting, I don't think I have ever heard one mention of it on the local news.  That's probably good for Christie, he doesn't want to have to spend early.  He probably blew all his money on Mickey D's anyway

[Lunar]

I cannot believe how little attention this race is getting, I don't think I have ever heard one mention of it on the local news. 

media markets

[Zarn]

Will you be supporting Corzine?

[Lunar]

me? not really, although it'd be amusing to see Corzine win from some of DWTL's earlier crazy comments, as I've said.

[Zarn]

I see.

I can't stand him. LOL

[DownWithTheLeft]

I cannot believe how little attention this race is getting, I don't think I have ever heard one mention of it on the local news. 

media markets

News 12 New Jersey?

[Verily]

In case anyone was wondering, Christie already has the line in Essex, Union, Middlesex, Monmouth, Burlington, and Camden Counties.

He will easily waltz through the primary without having to spend much if any money, which will leave him in good position against Corzine.

No surprise. The only county Christie might not get the line in is Bergen, but Lonegan isn't a serious threat.

[Lunar]

I cannot believe how little attention this race is getting, I don't think I have ever heard one mention of it on the local news. 

media markets

News 12 New Jersey?

Ah, my bad (no need for the bold, I remember New Jersey is in New Jersey).

It'd be interested to compare coverage to Virginia, LA, and NYC

[DownWithTheLeft]

I cannot believe how little attention this race is getting, I don't think I have ever heard one mention of it on the local news. 

media markets

News 12 New Jersey?

Ah, my bad (no need for the bold, I remember New Jersey is in New Jersey).

It'd be interested to compare coverage to Virginia, LA, and NYC

The bold was for emphasis

I also have not heard much on NYC since the whole uproar over the term limit removal

[Lunar]

I cannot believe how little attention this race is getting, I don't think I have ever heard one mention of it on the local news. 

media markets

News 12 New Jersey?

Ah, my bad (no need for the bold, I remember New Jersey is in New Jersey).

It'd be interested to compare coverage to Virginia, LA, and NYC

The bold was for emphasis

I also have not heard much on NYC since the whole uproar over the term limit removal

I was vaguely involved in some L.A. city council and such races and the only race that matters, the Democratic primary, was last Tuesday.  I don't think it  really made the news, even though all of the competitive elections just happened and everyone who won is essentially [whatever]-elect.

[Rowan]

Qunnipiac released a poll today on the budget, and I would have to imagine that they asked a question about the election, so hopefully that will get released tomorrow.