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Author Topic: LA-Sen (R2k/Daily Kos): Vitter ahead, but not by a lot  (Read 5182 times)
JohnnyLongtorso
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« on: March 05, 2009, 07:02:38 pm »
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Exciting polling action:

Primary:

David Vitter - 43
Jay Dardenne - 32
Stormy Daniels - 1

General:

David Vitter (R) - 48
Charlie Melancon (D) - 41

David Vitter (R) - 48
Don Cazayoux (D) - 39

Jay Dardenne (R) - 49
Charlie Melancon (D) - 40

Jay Dardenne (R) - 50
Don Cazayoux (D) - 38

Vitter's at 49/42 favorability, Dardenne at 48/22, Stormy Daniels at 7/6, Melancon at 43/18, and Cazayoux at 41/21.
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« Reply #1 on: March 05, 2009, 07:05:54 pm »
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Obama also has a net favorable of +3 (47-44).
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« Reply #2 on: March 05, 2009, 07:11:14 pm »
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Another epic fail for DailyKos not even being able to identify the Democratic Challenger most likely to get the nomination.  I mean, it takes, what, five seconds of Google searching?

Bernhardt, a CEO of a Fortune 500, is itching to drop millions against Vitter.  Considering Melancon isn't looking to run (unfortunately, we'd have a far better chance at this seat with a Cajun), this is what we get.

I mean, obviously he'd have low name ID, but you could substitute in some information (businessman, etc) to get a general idea.
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Ronnie
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« Reply #3 on: March 05, 2009, 07:39:12 pm »
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I'd say Vitter is in a pretty good position.
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« Reply #4 on: March 05, 2009, 07:41:51 pm »
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49/42 favorabilities isn't really that good...

But it matters where them's coming from, and that's where the news improves.

Also, this poll missed that Focus on the Family guy thinking about challenging Vitter.
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Ronnie
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« Reply #5 on: March 05, 2009, 07:44:12 pm »
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49/42 favorabilities isn't really that good...

But it matters where them's coming from, and that's where the news improves.

Also, this poll missed that Focus on the Family guy thinking about challenging Vitter.

Well, Vitter is at almost a majority with plenty of room of improvement for the GOP and undecideds.
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« Reply #6 on: March 05, 2009, 08:29:20 pm »
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Another epic fail for DailyKos not even being able to identify the Democratic Challenger most likely to get the nomination.  I mean, it takes, what, five seconds of Google searching?

Bernhardt, a CEO of a Fortune 500, is itching to drop millions against Vitter.  Considering Melancon isn't looking to run (unfortunately, we'd have a far better chance at this seat with a Cajun), this is what we get.

I mean, obviously he'd have low name ID, but you could substitute in some information (businessman, etc) to get a general idea.

What about Cazayoux? It'd be the logical thing for him to do. Unless he's running for the House seat again, I suppose.
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« Reply #7 on: March 05, 2009, 08:37:20 pm »
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he's been utterly silent.

Maybe the stronger Democratic candidates will emerge if Vitter looks weak and doesn't look like he's going to be beaten in the primary.  But I'm skeptical.

One good thing for Democrats is that Vitter has become the most conservative Senator in the Senate (in an attempt to fight off primary challengers), making it possibly a little easier to capture the idealogical center of Louisiana.
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« Reply #8 on: March 06, 2009, 01:21:12 am »
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Obama also has a net favorable of +3 (47-44).

While they were at it, they could have polled Obama vs. Jindal as well (probably Jindal+10) ...
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« Reply #9 on: March 06, 2009, 01:23:01 am »
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Diapers wants to defund Planned Parenthood.
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« Reply #10 on: March 06, 2009, 04:59:01 am »
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Diapers wants to defund Planned Parenthood.

He is trying to be the #1 conservative Senator, especially socially conservative, to prevent himself from being primaried from the right.  He's really going above and beyond the call of duty IMO but I doubt anyone in Louisiana has noticed yet that he was one of the, what, two people, to reject Hillary's candidacy? 
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« Reply #11 on: March 06, 2009, 08:11:12 pm »
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Diapers wants to defund Planned Parenthood.

He is trying to be the #1 conservative Senator, especially socially conservative, to prevent himself from being primaried from the right.  He's really going above and beyond the call of duty IMO but I doubt anyone in Louisiana has noticed yet that he was one of the, what, two people, to reject Hillary's candidacy? 

He's tacked to the right a little bit, but he wasn't that far from "#1 Most Conservative Senator" to begin with.
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« Reply #12 on: March 07, 2009, 04:18:48 pm »
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Yeah but he didn't try and like out-conservative McConnell previously.  It's actually pretty silly.

I'd say it's significantly more silly than Gillibrand's tack to the left since Vitter's constituency hasn't changed.
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« Reply #13 on: March 07, 2009, 05:15:02 pm »
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Louisiana is the worst state in the Union if they re-elect diaper-Dave.
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« Reply #14 on: March 07, 2009, 05:20:00 pm »
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Louisiana is the worst state in the Union if they re-elect diaper-Dave.

That's already the most likely scenario given the current track of things.

And Louisiana likes its politicians with a little gruff around the edges.
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« Reply #15 on: March 08, 2009, 12:17:07 pm »
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Louisiana hadn't a Republican senator since 1872 until it elected Diaper Dave in 2004, which heralded from yours truly an anguished cry. Is there nothing sacred for Democrats down in Dixie any more?

Diaper Dave has got to go - for sanctimonious hypocritical scumbagacy if nothing else

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« Reply #16 on: March 09, 2009, 10:10:45 am »
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Louisiana is the worst state in the Union if they re-elect diaper-Dave.

That's already the most likely scenario given the current track of things.

And Louisiana likes its politicians with a little gruff around the edges.

I just find it disturbing that so many Louisianians approve of a guy like Vitter.
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« Reply #17 on: March 09, 2009, 10:16:05 am »
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Landrieu got hit by endless commercials calling her openly corrupt (and Obama tanked in that state) but no one cared.

Hell, if Dollar Bill Jefferson,  who had $90k in his freezer when the government knocked their way into his house, had his election on November instead of a special election when no one turned out, he would have easily been reelected.  As it was, he still almost won.
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« Reply #18 on: March 10, 2009, 05:35:21 pm »
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Louisiana hadn't a Republican senator since 1872 until it elected Diaper Dave in 2004, which heralded from yours truly an anguished cry. Is there nothing sacred for Democrats down in Dixie any more?

Diaper Dave has got to go - for sanctimonious hypocritical scumbagacy if nothing else

Dave

I wonder the same. But if 2008 is any indication, the Democratic wave is slowly but surely seeping its way into the South with the Senate wins of Mark Warner in Virginia and Kay Hagan in North Carolina. Democrats may well oust Richard Burr and completely control North Carolina in 2010. Throw in Jim Bunning in Kentucky and it's just a matter of time before we go into the Deep South. I think Democrats stand a better chance of winning a Senate seat in Georgia than South Carolina, though, if we're speaking of geography in terms of the direction that that wave is flowing Smiley

As for David Vitter, if he wins in 2010, I will officially certify the state of Louisiana as STUPID. Hell, they're already nuts down there for electing that scary neoconservative Bobby Jindal as their Governor. And what about this whole prostitution thing? Doesn't that go against "morality and family values" that the Republican Party allegedly stands for? Tongue I'd personally like to see Lt. Gov. Mitch Landrieu challenge Vitter. I think he'd be a strong candidate with name recognition and a colleague in the Senate whom I'm sure would campaign for him in a heartbeat Smiley I'd do that for my brother...
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« Reply #19 on: March 11, 2009, 08:27:12 am »
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I wonder the same. But if 2008 is any indication, the Democratic wave is slowly but surely seeping its way into the South with the Senate wins of Mark Warner in Virginia and Kay Hagan in North Carolina.

What we see more in 2008 is the bifurcartion of the South between those states that have seen huge in-migration from the northeast and midwest, and which have diverse economies, from the rest of the south.

I exclude Florida and Texas from any considerations here because they are so big and diverse to begin with. Given the rest of the South, you have Virginia and North Carolina on one hand, and to a lesser extent South Carolina and Georgia, vs. AL/MS/LA/AR/TN/KY. In the former states, we saw swings to Obama and Congressional Dems on Election Day based on the Obama coalition. In the other states, the white vote stayed put or shifted even more Republican, and Congressional wins came in spite of Obama's winning coalition or were denied.

This is a long way of saying that Kay Hagen offers no hope or model to Louisiana that I can see.
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« Reply #20 on: March 11, 2009, 11:41:37 am »
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Besides, the "South" that is becoming part of the "Democratic wave" is the Atlantic seaboard, including South Carolina, not all of the South.  Clearly Landrieu was the only vulnerable incumbent Democrat and merely did ok while Obama did far worse than expected in every Southern state without a sizable black population.  Look at Missouri or even Arkansas.


I'm also not sure how well Landrireu would have done if her last name was something like Landon.  She probably still would have won, but there's a rule of Cajun voting that all else being equal you back the Cajun
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« Reply #21 on: March 11, 2009, 03:39:11 pm »
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Besides, the "South" that is becoming part of the "Democratic wave" is the Atlantic seaboard, including South Carolina, not all of the South.  Clearly Landrieu was the only vulnerable incumbent Democrat and merely did ok while Obama did far worse than expected in every Southern state without a sizable black population.  Look at Missouri or even Arkansas.


I'm also not sure how well Landrireu would have done if her last name was something like Landon.  She probably still would have won, but there's a rule of Cajun voting that all else being equal you back the Cajun

Seems to be an ever-weakening rule, though...
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« Reply #22 on: March 11, 2009, 03:41:32 pm »
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true dat
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« Reply #23 on: March 11, 2009, 03:44:28 pm »
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http://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?fips=22&year=2007&f=1&off=6

:\
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« Reply #24 on: March 11, 2009, 03:55:17 pm »
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Sammy Kershaw is from Vermillion parish (which, amusingly, he lost despite running well in Cajun country overall).
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