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Author Topic: Latest unemployment figures  (Read 4390 times)
CARLHAYDEN
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« on: March 06, 2009, 01:13:54 pm »
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A few months ago I predicted that the unemployment rate would reach 7.6% by February.  The majority of posters on the thread at that time scoffed and suggested that the unemployment rate would not reach 7.6% under Obama.  So, I was 'conservative' in my estimate of how much damage that B.O. could do to the economy.

Now the question is whether Obama can drive the economy into a full fledged depression?

Regretably, it seems quite possible that 'yes he can'!

AP
Jobless rate bolts to 8.1 percent, 651K jobs lost
Friday March 6, 12:29 pm ET
By Jeannine Aversa, AP Economics Writer 
Jobless rate jumps to 8.1 percent in Feb., highest since late 1983; employers cut 651,000 jobs


WASHINGTON (AP) -- The U.S. unemployment rate bolted to 8.1 percent in February, the highest since late 1983, as cost-cutting employers slashed 651,000 jobs amid a deepening recession.

Both figures were worse than analysts expected and the Labor Department's report shows America's workers being clobbered by a wave of layoffs unlikely to ease in the coming months.
 
"There is no light at the end of the tunnel with these numbers," said Nigel Gault, economist at IHS Global Insight. "Job losses were everywhere and there's no hope for a turnaround any time soon."

February's net job loss came after even deeper payroll reductions in the prior two months, according to revised figures released Friday. The economy lost 681,000 jobs in December and another 655,000 in January.

Employers are shrinking their work forces and turning to other ways to slash costs -- including trimming workers' hours, freezing wages or cutting pay -- because the recession has eaten into their sales and profits. Customers at home and abroad are cutting back as other countries cope with their own economic problems.

Since the recession began in December 2007, the economy has lost 4.4 million jobs, more than half of which occurred in the past four months. President Barack Obama called that tally "astounding," but urged the American people to give him time to let his economic revival plans take root.

"This recovery plan won't turn our economy around or solve every problem," Obama said. "All of this takes time and it will take patience."

With employers showing no appetite to hire, the unemployment jumped half a percentage point from 7.6 percent in January. That was the highest since December 1983, when the jobless rate was 8.3 percent.

All told, the number of unemployed people climbed to 12.5 million. In addition, the number of people forced to work part time for "economic reasons" rose by a sharp 787,000 to 8.6 million. That's people who would like to work full time but whose hours were cut back or were unable to find full-time work.

If part-time, discouraged workers and others are factored in, the unemployment rate would have been 14.8 percent in February, the highest on records dating to 1994.

The pain hit blue- and white-collar workers, those without a high-school diploma and those highly educated. The jobless rate for people with a bachelor's degree or higher jumped to 4.1 percent last month from 3.8 percent in January. That's the highest on records dating to 1992.

Meanwhile, the average work week in February stayed at 33.3 hours, matching the record low set in December.

Job losses were widespread last month.

Construction companies eliminated 104,000 jobs. Factories axed 168,000. Retailers cut nearly 40,000. Professional and business services got rid of 180,000, with 78,000 jobs lost at temporary-help agencies. Financial companies reduced payrolls by 44,000. Leisure and hospitality firms chopped 33,000 positions.

The few areas spared: education and health services, as well as government, which boosted employment last month.

Disappearing jobs and evaporating wealth from tanking home values, retirement plans and other investments have forced consumers to retrench, driving companies to lay off workers. It's a vicious cycle in which all the economy's negative problems feed on each other, worsening the downward spiral.

A new wave of layoffs hit this week.

General Dynamics Corp. said Thursday it will lay off 1,200 workers due partly to plummeting sales of business and personal jets that forced it to cut production. Defense contractor Northrop Grumman Corp., and Tyco Electronics Ltd., which makes electronic components, undersea telecommunications systems and wireless equipment, also are trimming payrolls.

The U.S. is getting bloodied by fallout from the housing, credit and financial crises-- the worst since the 1930s. And there's no easy fix for a quick turnaround, economists said.

Obama is counting on a multipronged assault to lift the country out of recession: a $787 billion stimulus package of increased federal spending and tax cuts; a revamped, multibillion-dollar bailout program for the nation's troubled banks; and a $75 billion effort to stem home foreclosures.

Even in the best-case scenario that the relief efforts work and the recession ends later in 2009, the unemployment rate is expected to keep climbing, hitting 9 percent or higher this year. In fact, the Federal Reserve thinks the unemployment rate will stay elevated into 2011. Economists say the job market may not get back to normal -- meaning a 5 percent unemployment rate -- until 2013.

Businesses won't be inclined to ramp up hiring until they are sure any economic recovery has staying power.

The economy contracted at a staggering 6.2 percent in the final three months of 2008, the worst showing in a quarter-century, and it will probably continue to shrink during the first six months of this year.

Given Friday's grim figures, Gault predicted the economy would probably shrink in the first quarter at a pace of at least 6 percent, and that the unemployment rate will rise as high as 10 percent in the first half of 2010.




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BushArizona
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« Reply #1 on: March 06, 2009, 01:28:43 pm »
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Unemployment Predictions:

March: 8.3%
April: 8.1%
May: 7.9%
June 7.5%
July 7.4%
August 7.4%
September: 7.3%
October 7.2%
November: 7.2%
December 6.7%
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StatesRights
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« Reply #2 on: March 06, 2009, 01:30:43 pm »
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Unemployment Predictions:

March: 8.3%
April: 8.1%
May: 7.9%
June 7.5%
July 7.4%
August 7.4%
September: 7.3%
October 7.2%
November: 7.2%
December 6.7%

Based on your hope for this idiot president?
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jamespol
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« Reply #3 on: March 06, 2009, 01:31:47 pm »
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Unemployment Predictions:

March: 8.3%
April: 8.1%
May: 7.9%
June 7.5%
July 7.4%
August 7.4%
September: 7.3%
October 7.2%
November: 7.2%
December 6.7%

Based on your hope for this idiot president?

He is better then President Palin would have been.

And Hillary would have not oversaw the economy getting an 8.1% unemployment.
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StatesRights
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« Reply #4 on: March 06, 2009, 01:34:44 pm »
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You're probably right. Hillary probably wouldn't have thrown any chance for my children to have a successful economic future down the toilet like the current moron in chief (to be fair) is doing.
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jamespol
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« Reply #5 on: March 06, 2009, 01:36:40 pm »
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You're probably right. Hillary probably wouldn't have thrown any chance for my children to have a successful economic future down the toilet like the current moron in chief (to be fair) is doing.

Thank you!

I am now very angry at Obama again. The country was doomed. And just to think, back in 2006, I hated Shrillary.
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« Reply #6 on: March 06, 2009, 01:37:19 pm »
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I predict Obama wins the War on Prosperity.
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Nhoj
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« Reply #7 on: March 06, 2009, 01:53:48 pm »
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ah yes obama is the sole cause of the high unemployment not like it hadnt already hit 7%  under bush...
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jamespol
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« Reply #8 on: March 06, 2009, 02:00:01 pm »
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ah yes obama is the sole cause of the high unemployment not like it hadnt already hit 7%  under bush...

Hillary would not have allowed this to happen.

She is a Clinton, she has her ways.
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Nhoj
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« Reply #9 on: March 06, 2009, 02:01:53 pm »
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ah yes obama is the sole cause of the high unemployment not like it hadnt already hit 7%  under bush...

Hillary would not have allowed this to happen.

She is a Clinton, she has her ways.
Hillary isnt god either.
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« Reply #10 on: March 06, 2009, 02:03:39 pm »
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ah yes obama is the sole cause of the high unemployment not like it hadnt already hit 7%  under bush...

Hillary would not have allowed this to happen.

She is a Clinton, she has her ways.
Hillary isnt god either.

But she would not have let Pelosi be in charge of the current stimulus.

In fact, she would have steamrolled the House of Representatives. She would have been very annoying, mean, touchy, arrogant, cruel, hostile, and torturing to the HoR. She probably would have had a good relationship with the US Senate, however.

She would have no way, no how, had the current stimulus, which is ed up.
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Nhoj
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« Reply #11 on: March 06, 2009, 02:14:35 pm »
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ah yes obama is the sole cause of the high unemployment not like it hadnt already hit 7%  under bush...

Hillary would not have allowed this to happen.

She is a Clinton, she has her ways.
Hillary isnt god either.

But she would not have let Pelosi be in charge of the current stimulus.

In fact, she would have steamrolled the House of Representatives. She would have been very annoying, mean, touchy, arrogant, cruel, hostile, and torturing to the HoR. She probably would have had a good relationship with the US Senate, however.

She would have no way, no how, had the current stimulus, which is ed up.
i think your missing what im saying unemployment would be rising regardless of who is president you are not going to be able to stop a global downturn in under 30 days no matter if you implement policies to do so the effects will not be immediate and for the record im not making an argument for the stimulus which will likely end up not helping that much.
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Smash255
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« Reply #12 on: March 06, 2009, 02:49:37 pm »
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Ahh yes because the current economic situation is Obama's fault, yup that is it...  Nevermind the fact the economy was in an absolute free fall when he took over, or the Stimulus package hasn't even had a chance yet........   Its going to take awhile to clean up the utter disaster the Bush economic policies have left us in.
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opebo
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« Reply #13 on: March 06, 2009, 03:28:56 pm »
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As president Obama obviously has had no causative effect or even influence on the unemployment, which was caused by right wing economic policy from 1981 to January of this year.

But certainly the rate should go up into the mid to upper teens, perhaps even over 20%, just as it did before.
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J. J.
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« Reply #14 on: March 06, 2009, 04:18:38 pm »
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Ahh yes because the current economic situation is Obama's fault, yup that is it...  Nevermind the fact the economy was in an absolute free fall when he took over, or the Stimulus package hasn't even had a chance yet........   Its going to take awhile to clean up the utter disaster the Bush economic policies have left us in.

Actually, while not great, it wasn't in "free fall" either (and I say, still isn't).
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J. J.

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« Reply #15 on: March 06, 2009, 06:14:38 pm »
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Ahh yes because the current economic situation is Obama's fault, yup that is it...  Nevermind the fact the economy was in an absolute free fall when he took over, or the Stimulus package hasn't even had a chance yet........   Its going to take awhile to clean up the utter disaster the Bush economic policies have left us in.

Actually, while not great, it wasn't in "free fall" either (and I say, still isn't).

The rate of job loss acceleration is staggering however.
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« Reply #16 on: March 06, 2009, 06:42:43 pm »
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As president Obama obviously has had no causative effect or even influence on the unemployment, which was caused by right wing economic policy from 1981 to January of this year.

But certainly the rate should go up into the mid to upper teens, perhaps even over 20%, just as it did before.

Are you hoping for some 'proletarian' revolt against the 'bourgeois' in the event of unemployment being that high?

Dave
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« Reply #17 on: March 06, 2009, 06:49:07 pm »
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So, I was 'conservative' in my estimate of how much damage that B.O. could do to the economy.

The rate of unemployment is at the stage it was at in December 1983. I'm surprised you're not cheering the fact that Obama is now on par with your hero; indeed, IIRC, the rate of unemployment may actually have been higher still earlier in Reagan's presidency

There is, of course, a world of difference between a Democratic president being in office six to seven weeks and a Republican president being in office three years, however Wink

And if conservatives can blame Carter for what happened under Reagan, then liberals, and pragmatic moderates, can blame George W Bush for what is happening now

I'm not surprised unemployment is continuing to rise - but its causation predates this president. Such is the severity of the sh**tty hand which he was dealt

Dave
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« Reply #18 on: March 06, 2009, 07:32:38 pm »
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Unemployment Predictions:

March: 8.3%
April: 8.1%
May: 7.9%
June 7.5%
July 7.4%
August 7.4%
September: 7.3%
October 7.2%
November: 7.2%
December 6.7%

Based on your hope for this idiot president?

Welcome back.  You've been missed.

Jamespol passes for the comic relief here at this time.

Are you far from Clearwater?  Apparently the city government there has gone nuts.  Do you have any insight?
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« Reply #19 on: March 06, 2009, 08:08:47 pm »
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So, I was 'conservative' in my estimate of how much damage that B.O. could do to the economy.

The rate of unemployment is at the stage it was at in December 1983. I'm surprised you're not cheering the fact that Obama is now on par with your hero; indeed, IIRC, the rate of unemployment may actually have been higher still earlier in Reagan's presidency

There is, of course, a world of difference between a Democratic president being in office six to seven weeks and a Republican president being in office three years, however Wink

And if conservatives can blame Carter for what happened under Reagan, then liberals, and pragmatic moderates, can blame George W Bush for what is happening now

I'm not surprised unemployment is continuing to rise - but its causation predates this president. Such is the severity of the sh**tty hand which he was dealt

Dave

This is the right one. I feel like especially when it comes to the economy the causation for what is currently happening goes back quite awhile, not the less than two months of the Obama administration.

We need to be a bit patient, these are desperate times and likely we will not see even the begginning of a recovery for another 6-12 months.
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« Reply #20 on: March 06, 2009, 08:52:23 pm »
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Unemployment Predictions:

March: 8.3%
April: 8.1%
May: 7.9%
June 7.5%
July 7.4%
August 7.4%
September: 7.3%
October 7.2%
November: 7.2%
December 6.7%

Based on your hope for this idiot president?
As if the Republicans are doing any better, they are offering no solutions to the main occuring problems, they are just offering up talking points. There needs to be real action taken on the economy in some places. Besides it isn't Obama's fault that this recession happened, blaming him for the current bad news is just stupid.
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« Reply #21 on: March 06, 2009, 08:55:38 pm »
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Ahh yes because the current economic situation is Obama's fault, yup that is it...  Nevermind the fact the economy was in an absolute free fall when he took over, or the Stimulus package hasn't even had a chance yet........   Its going to take awhile to clean up the utter disaster the Bush economic policies have left us in.

Actually, while not great, it wasn't in "free fall" either (and I say, still isn't).
How is it not in free fall? When the GDP goes down by 6.2% in one quarter isn't that free fall?
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« Reply #22 on: March 06, 2009, 09:48:06 pm »
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Based on your hope for this idiot president?

As if the Republicans are doing any better, they are offering no solutions to the main occuring problems, they are just offering up talking points. There needs to be real action taken on the economy in some places. Besides it isn't Obama's fault that this recession happened, blaming him for the current bad news is just stupid.

The Republicans can think of nothing beyond cutting taxes (Bush did that in 2001 and 2003 and look at the point to which he's taken the American economy) and "pork" Roll Eyes

BTW, many of these Republicans, who oppose the Omnibus Appropriations Bill and will vote against have filled it with earmarks for their districts or states to take back home should it pass and be signed into law. It's time their hypocrisy was called out

I don't dispute there are items, which one could deem "frivolous" - but, unfortunately, the line-item veto was struck down by the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Line_Item_Veto_Act_of_1996

In the absence of that, all any president can do is weigh the pros and cons, and if the former outweighs the latter, all he can do is sign it

Until George W Bush came along, government was living within its means. That's how there was a budget surplus

Republicans, of course, claim Clinton dealt Bush a sh**tty hand, economically, but it doesn't come close to what Bush bequeathed this president

Dave
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« Reply #23 on: March 06, 2009, 10:04:21 pm »
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I can't believe some people are actually blaming Obama for this mess. Just look at the December and January job figures you numbnuts. Obama can't be expected to change everything in a month. He hasn't even had a chance to get anything passed and implemented. That will take months if not up to a year. If the economy is still sh**tty in 2011 then its a different story. If unemployement isn't below 8% by 2012 I think Obama has a hard time getting re-elected.
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Smash255
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« Reply #24 on: March 06, 2009, 10:24:36 pm »
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I can't believe some people are actually blaming Obama for this mess. Just look at the December and January job figures you numbnuts. Obama can't be expected to change everything in a month. He hasn't even had a chance to get anything passed and implemented. That will take months if not up to a year. If the economy is still sh**tty in 2011 then its a different story. If unemployement isn't below 8% by 2012 I think Obama has a hard time getting re-elected.

One thing to keep in mind, is unemployment was barely down heading into the 84 election compared to where it was when Reagan took office (couple tenths).  Not comparing 2012 to 1984, but interesting to note nonetheless.
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