DE-Sen: Castle(R) 44% - Biden(D) 36%

[Rowan]

PPP

Mike Castle(R) 44%
Beau Biden(D) 36%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_DE_310.pdf

[Lunar]

Not that it's relevant, given that Castle is a sick elderly man that has been friends with the Biden family for how many decades?  Four and counting?

[OC]

This probably will be a 2nd tier battleground, but Beau has the advantage.

[Keystone Phil]

Wasn't there talk that Beau might not even run? If Castle thinks he can run despite his medical issues and faces Carney, this will be a good match.

[Lunar]

I think if Castle runs, no matter who is opponent is, it'll be an easy tossup in an off-year.

Ironically, Castle is on track to face Carney for his House seat this year.  I think Carney is just doing it to further build name recognition, connections, relevance, and an off-chance at a House seat if Castle bows out [voluntarily or not].

Does Castle have another six years in him before retirement?

[I'm Not a Witch]

Given how blue Delaware is, I think under normal circumstances it would be easy for any Democrat to carry the seat but Castle is definitely a strong candidate for the Republicans. What generally happens in these scenarios, i.e. when you have a red or blue state in which case the state's lone representative in the House challenges a Senate incumbent or newbie from the party that the state favors? The poll shows that Castle is favored over Beau Biden; think that's because Castle has won statewide election in a blue state or that voters in Delaware don't feel the need to crown Biden out of nepotism? Beau may hope to ride to victory on his daddy's coattails in the state but I'll give it to the Republicans, they do have a good (and moderate) candidate who may very well win. Right now, though, despite the poll, I give the edge to Biden.

A similar situation may occur with the South Dakota Senate race. John Thune just narrowly squeaked by in 2002 in a red state. There's been speculation that the state's sole congresswoman, Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D-S.D.), may challenge him. She, too, has experience at winning statewide election running as a Democrat in a fairly red state. Maybe if Castle wins in Delaware, she could win in South Dakota and this would cancel out each party's "gains."

[Former Moderate]

A similar situation may occur with the South Dakota Senate race. John Thune just narrowly squeaked by in 2002 in a red state. There's been speculation that the state's sole congresswoman, Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D-S.D.), may challenge him. She, too, has experience at winning statewide election running as a Democrat in a fairly red state. Maybe if Castle wins in Delaware, she could win in South Dakota and this would cancel out each party's "gains."

It was actually Johnson who squeaked by in 2002 against Thune, but the point is taken.  Thune defeated Daschle in 2004, and that one was close.  (But Daschle was the incumbent, not Thune.)

[I'm Not a Witch]

Thanks for the clarification, Mr. Moderate.

I just saw somewhere where Christine O'Donnell (R), the right-wing neoconservative who's against "pornography and premarital sex" who ran against Joe Biden in 2008 and was crushed by a two-to-one margin, is going to run again in 2010. Maybe if she gets into a primary battle with Castle, they'll bloody each other up and this will make it much easier for Beau Biden to win election to his daddy's seat.

[BeccaM]

Christine was obviously a token opposition candidate and wouldn't have enough of a chance to bloody up Castle, and she might even bow out if he entered the race.  Not that I think Castle is actually going to run for this.  The Biden fiefdom will most likely continue.

[Lunar]

No Republican could bloody up Castle.  Bloodying mostly only works if the victim is being bloodied from someone more centrist than himself -- or if the general election opponent holds certain anti-partisan positions to lure them away like a pro-life Democrat against a pro-choice Republican -- although perhaps five to ten dissatisfied Republicans could stay home (it's hard to imagine them not wanting to beat Beau though).