South Africa 2009

[ottermax]

Elections are set for April, 22nd.

This is mainly here to start a topic since I could not find any. There is a new party, COPE, the Congress of the People, that is formed of defectors from the ANC. It will be interesting to see if the ANC loses their massive majority, but it is unlikely to do so suddenly. Jacob Zuma, however, the likely new president is corrupt but popular, drawing some similarities to Robert Mugabe...

Anyways, please discuss, South Africa is a country in transition still, but it could be approaching a new era of prosperity and hope as the World Cup approaches and these elections take place.

[Linus Van Pelt]

Somewhat counterintuitively, Zuma is actually more anti-Mugabe than Mbeki and the traditional ANC, even though he is sketchier on internal matters. I think that this may have something to do with his base being the unions and the left more generally. (The MDC in Zimbabwe is heavily union-backed).

[Hash]

It will be very interesting to see what COPE's voter base ends up being. Many say it will be "middle-class blacks".

[Hash]

Not sure how reliable polls are in South Africa (not very much, methinks), but this one doesn't sound too off.

ANC 61%
DA 16%
COPE 15%
Others 8%

[Dan the Roman]

Not sure how reliable polls are in South Africa (not very much, methinks), but this one doesn't sound too off.

ANC 61%
DA 16%
COPE 15%
Others 8%

Would be a good performance for the DA and COPE. Though those are exactly the two parties I would expect to be exaggerated in a phone poll their supporters actually being literate and likely having telephones and all. Also early results will favor both the DA and I would assume COPE. The initial results had the DA on 14.5% last time and they fell back to 12.5%.

[Verily]

That's a big underestimate on the Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP), too, I would imagine. The split in the ANC will benefit them somewhat, and they should get close to 10%. Plus there are a bunch of small parties which will manage at least 5% total.

Did the UDM merge with the COPE? They seem like two variants of the same party.

[Linus Van Pelt]

That's a big underestimate on the Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP), too, I would imagine. The split in the ANC will benefit them somewhat, and they should get close to 10%.

Hmm, not sure about this. Zuma, unlike Mandela or Mbeki, is Zulu, and his strongest base is among Zulus. Wouldn't surprise me if he brought along a bunch of IFP voters over. (Though Dan's point about not having a phone would particularly apply to IFP voters too).

[Dan the Roman]

That's a big underestimate on the Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP), too, I would imagine. The split in the ANC will benefit them somewhat, and they should get close to 10%. Plus there are a bunch of small parties which will manage at least 5% total.

Did the UDM merge with the COPE? They seem like two variants of the same party.

The IFP has the problems Linus brought up, but even at its height it was only getting around 7% nationally. There is just not enough base for tribal party that basically runs in one province to rack up those numbers. Its like the BQ in Canada, no matter how popular it is capped on how well it can do, and its the type of party PR discriminates against.

As for COPE being like the UDM, well in official appearance yes. But the UDM was a reformist party formed by politicians who dislike the corruption and cronyism of the ANC and National Party. COPE on the other hand is formed by some of the most corrupt ANC hacks who lost out in an internal power struggle. They are being backed out of convenience by the open government people because they fear Zuma, and don't believe that COPE can actually win, only weaken the ANC.

Make no mistake though. Lekota and company are bad apples, and they were the most pro-Mugabe people in the ANC, and would have liked to go the ZANU route against their internal opponents if they could have. They are liberals of convenience for the moment and for the moment only.

[Hash]

I still think 8% for Others is an underestimate. Firstly, there's the IFP, which, even though I strongly doubt they will make gains, remains a viable force that hovers around 7-8% nationally. And then you need to consider all the other parties from the UDM to VF+, which can all add up to a small but sizable share of the vote.

[Hash]

Maybe 8% isn't much of an underestimate after all, according to a Ipsos poll for the provincial polls in KwaZulu-Natal:

KwaZulu-Natal
ANC 64.3% (47%)
IFP 15.2% (36.8%)
DA 8.7% (8.4%)
ACDP 2.1% (1.8%)
MF 1.4% (2.6%)
ID 0.6% (0.5%)
UDM 0.3% (0.8%)
VF+ 0.1% (0.3%)
Others 0.2% (1.85)
0% support for PAC
7.1% undecided
14% of ANC supporters "indicated that they might vote for an opposition party in the 2009 election."

On the topic of provincial politics, here is an old poll by Ipsos (prior to COPE, methinks). Interesting stuff.

Western Cape
DA 42.8% (27.1% in 2004)
ANC 26% (45.3%)
ID 7.9% (7.8%)
ACDP 1.8% (3.4%)
PAC 1.2% (0.4%)
VF+ 1.1% (0.6%)
IFP 1.1% (0.1%)
AMP 0.9% (0.7%)
UDM 0.4% (1.8%)
Other 1.6% (12.7%)
15% undecided
18% of ANC supporters "indicated that they might vote for an opposition party in the 2009 election."

Gauteng
ANC 59% (68.4%)
DA 18.6% (20.8%)
IFP 1.1% (2.5%)
ID 1.1% (1.5%)
UDM 0.8% (1%)
ACDP 0.8% (1.6%)
VF+ 0.3% (1.3%)
PAC 0.2% (0.9%)
Others 0.9% (2%)
17.2% undecided
16% of ANC supporters reported that they would consider voting for an opposition party in the upcoming election.

Eastern Cape
ANC 67.1% (79.3%)
UDM 7.8% (9.2%)
DA 7.2% (7.3%)
ID 1.4% (0.8%)
ACDP 1% (0.8%)
PAC 0.7% (1%)
IFP 0.2% (0.2%)
VF+ 0% (0.3%)
Others 1% (1.1%)
13.6% undecided
11% of likely ANC voters in that province indicated that they could be voting with their feet and support an opposition party.

Free State
ANC 72.7% (81.8%)
DA 8% (8.5%)
ACDP 2.8% (1.3%)
VF+ 2.5% (2.5%)
PAC 0.3% (1.2%)
0% for IFP, ID, UDM and Dikwankwetla
13.7% undecided
11% of ANC supporters reported that they would consider voting for an opposition party in the upcoming election.

Northwest
ANC 75.6% (80.7%)
DA 6.2% (5%)
UCDP 3.1% (8.5%)
ID 2.1% (0.4%)
IFP 1% (0.3%)
ACDP 0.9% (1.2%)
Others 0.1% (0.8%)
0% support for UDM, VF+, PAC
11% undecided
17% of ANC supporters reported that they would consider voting for an opposition party in the upcoming election.

Mpumalanga
ANC 73.6% (86.3%)
DA 10.5% (6.9%)
UDM 0.9% (1%)
PAC 0.9% (0.7%)
Others 1.5% (0.9%)
0% support for IFP, ID, ACDP, VF+, SPP
12.6% undecided
??% of ANC supporters reported that they would consider voting for an opposition party in the upcoming election.

Limpopo
ANC 81.7% (89.2%)
DA 5.1% (3.6%)
ACDP 0.9% (1.3%)
VF+ 0.8% (0.6%)
Others 0.8% (2.5%)
0% support for IFP, ID, UDM, PAC
10.7% undecided
19% of ANC supporters reported that they would consider voting for an opposition party in the upcoming election.

Northern Cape (SMALL SAMPLE, PEEPS!)
ANC 70% (68.8%)
DA 5.7% (11.1%)
ID 3.7% (7.1%)
Others 6.3% (8.5%)
0% support for IFP, UDM, ACDP, VF+, PAC
14.3% undecided
23% of ANC supporters reported that they would consider voting for an opposition party in the upcoming election.

In side news, approvals for provincial governments are as follows:
Free State 61%
Limpopo 61%
KZN 60%
NW 51%
Gauteng 49%
WC 48%
EC 47%
NC 44%
Mpumalanga 33%

For the first time since 2001, voters say (42%) that the country is on the wrong track

Just to say, 8% doesn't seem like an underestimate much based on these polls.

[ottermax]

The elections are coming up on Wednesday, but are quite dull. Apathy seems to be the theme of this election.

[Hash]

The elections are coming up on Wednesday, but are quite dull. Apathy seems to be the theme of this election.

Actually, no. Most media sources, South African and international all seem to agree that turnout will be quite good in this election due to Zuma's personality, and the emergence of COPE.

[ottermax]

The elections are coming up on Wednesday, but are quite dull. Apathy seems to be the theme of this election.

Actually, no. Most media sources, South African and international all seem to agree that turnout will be quite good in this election due to Zuma's personality, and the emergence of COPE.

Really? I was just reading an article on BBC about youth voters who are resigned to the fact that Zuma cannot be defeated and COPE fails and the DA remains a "White" party. COPE was meant for Black voters tired of the ANC, but not many people want to abandon the party that is so ingrained in the South African psyche and do not see COPE as an improvement because the party has become engulfed with infighting.

Voter turnout is expected to decrease as a percent of the population, but increase in the number of voters (which doesn't make sense with South Africa's decreasing population...)

[minionofmidas]

The BBC's southern African team is a white suprematist hate group [/grotesque exaggeration]. I wouldn't believe them almost anything. The population of South Africa is growing, though very marginally by African standards.

[Dan the Roman]

The BBC's southern African team is a white suprematist hate group [/grotesque exaggeration]. I wouldn't believe them almost anything. The population of South Africa is growing, though very marginally by African standards.

To be fair, living in Africa does tend to make one a white supremacist out of sheer frustration. Its something that is hard for those who never have to understand just how awful these parties are. I have met a number of poor blacks who wish the Nats were still in charge.

Personally from what I am hearing the BBC is not far off. COPE is not a breathe of fresh air. Its all the old political hacks come back from the dead. The DA is arrogant white liberals who still live in the same dream world they have since the 1940s, and the ANC is probably one of the most breathtakingly corrupt patronage operations on the face of the planet which is now facing a takeover by radical third-worlders. Really, Chavez is light years better than these people, in that he at least cares about the country. Zuma is running around comparing himself to Shaka Zulu. There are no good choices, and the ones that do exist have so little shot at winning.

You are right in absolute terms that abstention won't be high. But look at the middle class, the colored and Asian communities, the remaining whites and you will see turnout in the 30s to 40s. Most of their kids are leaving because they see the writing on the wall and that they have no future there.

South Africa is pretty screwed. It'll resemble Zimbabwe in a decade or so.

My Predictions

ANC 63%
DA 16%
COPE 13%
Others 8%

[ottermax]

The BBC's southern African team is a white suprematist hate group [/grotesque exaggeration]. I wouldn't believe them almost anything. The population of South Africa is growing, though very marginally by African standards.

To be fair, living in Africa does tend to make one a white supremacist out of sheer frustration. Its something that is hard for those who never have to understand just how awful these parties are. I have met a number of poor blacks who wish the Nats were still in charge.

Personally from what I am hearing the BBC is not far off. COPE is not a breathe of fresh air. Its all the old political hacks come back from the dead. The DA is arrogant white liberals who still live in the same dream world they have since the 1940s, and the ANC is probably one of the most breathtakingly corrupt patronage operations on the face of the planet which is now facing a takeover by radical third-worlders. Really, Chavez is light years better than these people, in that he at least cares about the country. Zuma is running around comparing himself to Shaka Zulu. There are no good choices, and the ones that do exist have so little shot at winning.

You are right in absolute terms that abstention won't be high. But look at the middle class, the colored and Asian communities, the remaining whites and you will see turnout in the 30s to 40s. Most of their kids are leaving because they see the writing on the wall and that they have no future there.

South Africa is pretty screwed. It'll resemble Zimbabwe in a decade or so.

My Predictions

ANC 63%
DA 16%
COPE 13%
Others 8%

I doubt it will resemble Zimbabwe in a decade; there are very different situations.

I agree that things are going downhill in South Africa. But things will go downhill not because of a tyrannical government but because conditions will just deteriorate in the economy and living standards. COPE is not much of a change, but I think it is symbolic for the fact that there is now a black opposition that isn't based on ethnic power. It took a long time for the United States to vote for a party other than the Republicans after the civil war, so I think it is fair to give South Africans some time to step away from their loyalty to the party responsible for ending Apartheid.

[minionofmidas]

COPE is not much of a change, but I think it is symbolic for the fact that there is now a black opposition that isn't based on ethnic power.

We'll see about that once the results are in... I wouldn't be surprised if their strongholds end up explainable in terms of ethnicity.

[ottermax]

COPE is not much of a change, but I think it is symbolic for the fact that there is now a black opposition that isn't based on ethnic power.

We'll see about that once the results are in... I wouldn't be surprised if their strongholds end up explainable in terms of ethnicity.

That's true, it probably will be that way, but the point is that they are not like the IFP, advocating for a single ethnic group.

[Hash]

COPE probably is middle-class blacks, whatever that means.

[ottermax]

COPE probably is middle-class blacks, whatever that means.

Right, but will they vote?

[Verily]

Anyone know if we will get any results tonight?

[minionofmidas]

Official site: http://www.elections.org.za/NPEPWStaticReports/Default.aspx

Nothing in yet.

[minionofmidas]

Turnout reported to have been very high.

[Hash]

Early reports with around 1000 votes has the ANC ahead in all but two provinces, Western Cape and Northern Cape where the DA leads.

[Nhoj]

Early reports with around 1000 votes has the ANC ahead in all but two provinces, Western Cape and Northern Cape where the DA leads.

did DA win both in 2004? or whenever the last election was.