Ohio Governor 2010/Quinnipiac: Gov. Strickland (D) comfortably ahead

[Tender Branson]

Strickland (D): 50%
DeWine (R): 34%

Strickland (D): 51%
Kasich (R): 31%

In a GOP primary for that nomination, DeWine leads Kasich 32 - 27 percent, a closer race than in February when DeWine led 37 - 22 percent.

From March 10- 15, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,299 Ohio voters, with a margin of error of +/- 2.7 percentage points. The survey includes 463 Republicans, with a margin of error of +/-4.6 percentage points.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1284.xml?ReleaseID=1276

[Rowan]

You should also note that Stricklands approvals are down a net 12 points. Also, DeWine has gained 6 net points in his matchup and Kasich has gained 10 net points.

[Sam Spade]

That's a lot weaker than it was last time (approvals and topline numbers).  Could be just an outlier, or not - we need to see another poll.

[President Marokai]

People aren't really crazy about Strickland here, and I really think polls are overestimating his favorables. Its more of a factor that the GOP is a joke here.

[Sam Spade]

People aren't really crazy about Strickland here, and I really think polls are overestimating his favorables. Its more of a factor that the GOP is a joke here.

Strange - I never thought of the GOP in OH as being a joke (like IL, for example).  They appear to be one of the few state GOPs that knows how to clear primaries for candidates, for one.

Maybe I really don't know anything.

[Padfoot]

People aren't really crazy about Strickland here, and I really think polls are overestimating his favorables. Its more of a factor that the GOP is a joke here.

Strange - I never thought of the GOP in OH as being a joke (like IL, for example).  They appear to be one of the few state GOPs that knows how to clear primaries for candidates, for one.

Maybe I really don't know anything.

The Ohio GOP isn't a joke, they're still an extremely viable party here.  They've just had a couple off years which is partially their fault for nominating idiots (Blackwell) and having too many corruption scandals (Taft and Ney) but a lot of it has been a factor of the unfavorable environment for their party.

IMO, the reason Strickland is sinking is because he hasn't had a major piece of legislation go through that addresses any of the big issues Ohioans are thinking about right now.  Plus, people are still trying to figure out what they think of his school reform proposal and thus far no one has come out to give it a ringing endorsement as far as I know.  I haven't really heard either party's reaction to it either.  All in all, Strickland has been very bland and I highly doubt he'll be re-elected by the staggering margin he had in 2006.

[Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I would say that if the election were to day or things stay exactly the way they are Strickland will be reelected 55-45. However in recent elections I have seen incumbents with 20 point lead, yet only be at 51%, this far out, go on to lose. Virginia 2006 comes to mind as does NC 2008 but they both had candidates that sucked big time. Strickland seems stronger politically then those clowns and he is also a D. But the economy is bad and while that is out of Strickland's hands and he shouldn't be blamed in anyway for it, it will make people agitated and it will magnify any other issues that could pose a problem for Ted. We also need to see how good of a candidate John Kasich is in a statewide race. Plus having been out of office since 2000 means his name id is artificially low. Basically a long winded version of its "too early to tell".

[Sam Spade]

Being at the low 50s in terms of approvals and poll numbers is right on the edge of problems, if, of course, this poll is accurate (I have no clue actually).

[Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Being at the low 50s in terms of approvals and poll numbers is right on the edge of problems, if, of course, this poll is accurate (I have no clue actually).

Basically a simpler version of what I just said. We shall see with time whether Strickland becomes safe or this seat becomes competative.