NC- Sen: Burr Could Be in Trouble

[Rowan]

PPP

Burr 43%
Marshall 38%

Burr 42%
Generic D 38%

Approve 35%
Disapprove 32%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_NC_319.pdf

[WalterMitty]

burr will win.

[I left.]

burr will win.

You're probably right....but why make such projections almost 2 years away from the election?

[WalterMitty]

burr will win.

You're probably right....but why make such projections almost 2 years away from the election?

1.  i think '10 will be much more republican friendly than 08 or 06.
2.  burr is a mainstream conservative, not a nutter.
3.  nc, despite the 08 result, is still a lean republican state
4.  burr isnt a total f' up like elizabeth dole.

[Holmes]

There is no curse. Just in case anyone brings it up.

[Aizen]

the seat is cursed

[© Tweed the Younger]

isn't Burr's opponent gay?

[Joe Republic]

isn't Burr's opponent gay?

He doesn't have any declared opponents yet.  You're probably thinking of Jim Neal, who lost the primary for Dole's seat last year.

[Lunar]

burr will win.

You're probably right....but why make such projections almost 2 years away from the election?

1.  i think '10 will be much more republican friendly than 08 or 06.
2.  burr is a mainstream conservative, not a nutter.
3.  nc, despite the 08 result, is still a lean republican state
4.  burr isnt a total f' up like elizabeth dole.

The most obvious counter-argument is that Cooper, a statewide elected official > State. Senator Hagan

[Sam Spade]

If Burr is really that unknown or no one has that strong of an opinion (I wonder), then his success or failure is probably linked in some way to the success or failure of Obama come Nov. 2010.

[RIP Robert H Bork]

But in the end I think that Burr will win.

[blagohair.com]

burr will win.

I doubt it.  To me it looks as if Cooper could easily win if he decides to run.

[memphis]

Meh, a lot of people could be in trouble.

[Fmr. Emperor PiT]

     Realistically, Burr was seen as weaker than Dole before the 2008 elections. The strongest Democrats all waited out the election for a shot at Burr. We know what happened to Dole. It's too early to say, but things do not look good for Burr.

[WalterMitty]

     Realistically, Burr was seen as weaker than Dole before the 2008 elections. The strongest Democrats all waited out the election for a shot at Burr. We know what happened to Dole. It's too early to say, but things do not look good for Burr.

dole was a horrible candidate.  burr is much better.

[Landslide Lyndon]

     Realistically, Burr was seen as weaker than Dole before the 2008 elections. The strongest Democrats all waited out the election for a shot at Burr. We know what happened to Dole. It's too early to say, but things do not look good for Burr.

dole was a horrible candidate.  burr is much better.

That's what I call damning with faint praise.

[Fmr. Emperor PiT]

     Realistically, Burr was seen as weaker than Dole before the 2008 elections. The strongest Democrats all waited out the election for a shot at Burr. We know what happened to Dole. It's too early to say, but things do not look good for Burr.

dole was a horrible candidate.  burr is much better.

     Maybe so, though as I recall Dole looked much stronger at the time. I guess I might be wrong though, as it has been some time.

[Tender Branson]

North Carolina always has close Senate elections.  Elizabeth Dole's defeat was primarily because she was ineffective and invisible as a Senator, and when she was visible it wasn't good (chairman of the RNSC).  Not to mention that she had no real background in the state.  She hadn't been a resident for forty years when she came down here and has probably been in Washington longer than anyone else.  The 'godless' ad clinched it and might have actually helped her out if she hadn't had an impersonator voice "There is no God!"  Whoever ran the ad must have been intentionally trying to sabotage the campaign.  Instead of raising the issue "Why is Hagan getting support from these people?" (a legitimate question) the focus of discussion was how desperate Dole was to mislead people about Hagan.  After that ad there was no hope for the Dole campaign, which had already been losing early voting - the reason the ad had been run in the first place.

Burr is a better candidate than Dole.  For one thing, he actually has a base in the state and is liked among conservatives, who were lukewarm about Dole.  I would give him the advantage in 2010 over anyone other than Roy Cooper or Heath Shuler - except for the fact that his seat is cursed.  But that's okay, we'll win the seat back in 2016.

[Ronnie]

I want to be a little bit off topic in saying that Kay Hagan's reelection campaign in 2014 will be a real wildcard.  So far she has shown herself to be liberal, who has voted with her party very very consistently so far.  North Carolina will probably move to the left by 2014, but she will let her constituents down if she votes hard left in the next 6 years.

[Smash255]

North Carolina always has close Senate elections.  Elizabeth Dole's defeat was primarily because she was ineffective and invisible as a Senator, and when she was visible it wasn't good (chairman of the RNSC).  Not to mention that she had no real background in the state.  She hadn't been a resident for forty years when she came down here and has probably been in Washington longer than anyone else.  The 'godless' ad clinched it and might have actually helped her out if she hadn't had an impersonator voice "There is no God!"  Whoever ran the ad must have been intentionally trying to sabotage the campaign.  Instead of raising the issue "Why is Hagan getting support from these people?" (a legitimate question) the focus of discussion was how desperate Dole was to mislead people about Hagan.  After that ad there was no hope for the Dole campaign, which had already been losing early voting - the reason the ad had been run in the first place.

Burr is a better candidate than Dole.  For one thing, he actually has a base in the state and is liked among conservatives, who were lukewarm about Dole.  I would give him the advantage in 2010 over anyone other than Roy Cooper or Heath Shuler - except for the fact that his seat is cursed.  But that's okay, we'll win the seat back in 2016.

Burr does have a stronger base than Dole did, but it wasn't like the conservatives voted for Hagan, they voted for Dole.  Dole got demolished among moderates (64-33), Burr's base is not going to help with that. Obviously a lot will depend on the candidate and the overall political climated a year and a half from now.  However, unless the economic situation is far worse than it is now and Obama is very unpopular, I think its going to be a real tough fight for Burr.  If things are starting to improve or Obama's approvals are even remotely near where they are now,  Burr will be in deep, unless the Dems nominate a terrible candidate which seems highly unlikely given the bench.

[BeccaM]

I want to be a little bit off topic in saying that Kay Hagan's reelection campaign in 2014 will be a real wildcard.  So far she has shown herself to be liberal, who has voted with her party very very consistently so far.  North Carolina will probably move to the left by 2014, but she will let her constituents down if she votes hard left in the next 6 years.

A lot of the Democrats that were elected in 2006 and 2008 will have a harder time getting reelected in '12 and '14.  I'm already really looking forward to Al Franken's reelection bid.

[Gravis Marketing]

Worse news for Burr... the Civitas (R) poll has Burr behind Cooper, 41%-38%.

http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2009/03/poll-gop-senator-burr-down-by-three-against-potential-dem-opponent.php

[DownWithTheLeft]

Haha, I love the attitutude of some Dems:

Christie up 15 in a race in 2009? Corzine will cruise to victory
Dems lead with 41% by 3 for a race in 2010?  O this sh**t is over

[Prez Duke]

I wouldn't put a lot of weight in this Civitas poll. It may be bad news for Burr, but it's too far out to worry now. He may be in trouble, but it depends on the environment come the midterm elections. He certainly could be vulnerable, but he hasn't done anything that would give voters a reason to vote him out.

[Smash255]

Haha, I love the attitutude of some Dems:

Christie up 15 in a race in 2009? Corzine will cruise to victory
Dems lead with 41% by 3 for a race in 2010?  O this sh**t is over

I don't think anyone is saying its over for Burr, but there has been talk about that he might be in trouble and we get a poll from a Republican polling firm putting him behind by three.  As far as NJ, well its NJ polling...