States that might become democrat or republican.

[politicaladdict]

I was wondering which states can become prominently republican or prominently democrat.

I know that all southern states where heavily democrat, such Texas and so on, till the 70s, when democrats where becoming more liberal in there thinking, but are now heavily republican.

And I know that West Virginia had been very democrat probably becuase of unions, and they voted against the first Reagan and against George.H.W and eventually for Clinton in both elections, but ever since voted heavily republican. Why is that?

And I now think that New Hamphire mainly boston taking over and Maine used to be pretty republican but now heavily vote for democrats.

Does anyone think that Virginia will become more democrat for now on or do you think it's exceptional for this election, I know alot of people from DC are moving there.

And does anyone think that liberal states will become more republican maybe Pennsylvania or something?

Does anyone think that maybe Montana or South Dakotacould be more democrat?

Just curious!

[Landslide Lyndon]

Virginia, Nevada, Arizona and Colorado will become more Democratic due to demographics (Hispanic growth) and the fact that suburbanites are drifting away from the Republican party.

Arkansas and West Virginia were the last Democratic bastions in the South but they became pretty reliably Republican during the last decade, at least in presidential level.

[Holmes]

Well, Dixie in the South that voted for Clinton(Arkansas, Louisiana) seems to be trending GOP while the New South(Virginia, North Carolina and even Georgia even though Obama only came close enough to win it) are trending Democratic. I wouldn't be surprised to see them swing even more for the Democrats. People here say the southern states that Clinton won can see a big swing in 2012 for the Democrats buut... I remain skeptical.

New England is just rejecting the Republicans, period. No more Republicans House members there, and only 3 Republicans senators(although it'll probably be 2 in 2011, and it'll stay that way until Snowe or Collins retire). And Obama only lost one county in New England, in Maine, by 4%. I don't think it has anything to do with Massachussetts.

I personally have no idea why Gore lost West Virginia(it was seriously his loss) but Kerry doesn't seem like the kind of guy to appeal to West Virginians, and kinda the same with Obama, being black and Hillary's primary rival.

Montana can become more Democratic, I guess. Obama only lost it by 2%. They have a popular Democratic governor, and senators too. Then again they also re-elected their GOP representative with 60%+ right? I heard his opponent wasn't a serious one but... I wouldn't know.

[politicaladdict]

New Hampshire is becoming more liberal because of the migration from Boston Massachusettes.

[Stranger in a strange land]

New Hampshire is becoming more liberal because of the migration from Boston Massachusettes.

That's a small part of why NH is trending Democratic. It has much more to do with the domination of the Republican Party by Southern Conservatives and the Religious Right, as well as the fact that the northern part of the state has fallen on hard economic times.

[Sbane]

New Hampshire is becoming more liberal because of the migration from Boston Massachusettes.

Actually if you look at the trend maps from 2004 and 2008, it becomes clear that NH is not becoming democrat because of Boston. It is definitely one reason but the rise of the religious right is the main reason imo.

[Torie]

New Hampshire is becoming more liberal because of the migration from Boston Massachusettes.

Actually if you look at the trend maps from 2004 and 2008, it becomes clear that NH is not becoming democrat because of Boston. It is definitely one reason but the rise of the religious right is the main reason imo.

It is more that Vermont types are pouring into the part of New Hampshire near the Vermont border. The commuter towns next to the Massachusetts border remain pretty reliably Republican.

[Alcon]

I think we chronically over-rate trends, and chronically underrate circumstance.  Indiana had a big swing this year due to a transitory manufacturing situation.  Nevada, parts of California and other Sun Belt locations suffered from a transitory housing market crisis.  Even if these situations continue, there's no reason that they will constitute "trends"; even if the situations become trends (and why would they?) political responses tend to dull over time, not become exponential.   Gravity regresses political affiliation toward the mean.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I think we chronically over-rate trends, and chronically underrate circumstance. 

Ah, a relatively sane man.

[Brittain33]

New Hampshire is becoming more liberal because of the migration from Boston Massachusettes.

Massachusetts migrants to the southern tier of New Hampshire vote Republican. Think of them as exurban voters. The shift in N.H. is of long-time state residents leaving the Republican Party.

Torie, is there really migration from Vermont to N.H.? I thought of the trend more as parts of N.H. adjacent to Vermont, voting more like Vermont. 

[Torie]

New Hampshire is becoming more liberal because of the migration from Boston Massachusettes.

Massachusetts migrants to the southern tier of New Hampshire vote Republican. Think of them as exurban voters. The shift in N.H. is of long-time state residents leaving the Republican Party.

Torie, is there really migration from Vermont to N.H.? I thought of the trend more as parts of N.H. adjacent to Vermont, voting more like Vermont. 

Well it is probably more that the same type of folks move there. Maybe the Green Mountain Boy fumes waft across the border. After all the prevailing winds blow towards the east.

I do think it is more about in migration (and out migration), than existing residents having partisan epiphanies.

[Sbane]

New Hampshire is becoming more liberal because of the migration from Boston Massachusettes.

Massachusetts migrants to the southern tier of New Hampshire vote Republican. Think of them as exurban voters. The shift in N.H. is of long-time state residents leaving the Republican Party.

Torie, is there really migration from Vermont to N.H.? I thought of the trend more as parts of N.H. adjacent to Vermont, voting more like Vermont. 

Well it is probably more that the same type of folks move there. Maybe the Green Mountain Boy fumes waft across the border. After all the prevailing winds blow towards the east.

I do think it is more about in migration (and out migration), than existing residents having partisan epiphanies.

But is the growth in those rural areas of NH really that high? I still think the radicalization of the republican party is one of the reason for NH's drift towards the democrats. Not the only reason of course.

[Sbane]

I think we chronically over-rate trends, and chronically underrate circumstance.  Indiana had a big swing this year due to a transitory manufacturing situation.  Nevada, parts of California and other Sun Belt locations suffered from a transitory housing market crisis.  Even if these situations continue, there's no reason that they will constitute "trends"; even if the situations become trends (and why would they?) political responses tend to dull over time, not become exponential.   Gravity regresses political affiliation toward the mean.

Don't know if this was directed towards me but I recognize that people vote based on current circumstances. Yet it is undeniable that the ideology of the republican party and NH has drifted apart over the years. There may be other reasons such as hippies moving in, but I don't think that explains it all. And I am not saying that these trends will continue. If in 2012 the republicans nominate a social moderate/fiscal conservative candidate, they will do much better in NH. If by 2020 the democratic party is populist it won't be wining NH. The "trend" that I see is socially liberal but otherwise conservative people leaving the republican party in droves and they are overrepresented in NH. I just don't see the trend map and go "omgz trendzzzzzzz". And I would add that Boston exurbia will tend to be more socially moderate than the rest of the state and thus the lower swing against republicans. And more growth of like minded people is of course another reason.

[Torie]

I think we chronically over-rate trends, and chronically underrate circumstance.  Indiana had a big swing this year due to a transitory manufacturing situation.  Nevada, parts of California and other Sun Belt locations suffered from a transitory housing market crisis.  Even if these situations continue, there's no reason that they will constitute "trends"; even if the situations become trends (and why would they?) political responses tend to dull over time, not become exponential.   Gravity regresses political affiliation toward the mean.

Don't know if this was directed towards me but I recognize that people vote based on current circumstances. Yet it is undeniable that the ideology of the republican party and NH has drifted apart over the years. There may be other reasons such as hippies moving in, but I don't think that explains it all. And I am not saying that these trends will continue. If in 2012 the republicans nominate a social moderate/fiscal conservative candidate, they will do much better in NH. If by 2020 the democratic party is populist it won't be wining NH. The "trend" that I see is socially liberal but otherwise conservative people leaving the republican party in droves and they are overrepresented in NH. I just don't see the trend map and go "omgz trendzzzzzzz". And I would add that Boston exurbia will tend to be more socially moderate than the rest of the state and thus the lower swing against republicans. And more growth of like minded people is of course another reason.

Well for what it is worth, let me throw this article on the pile regarding what is fueling the changing political face of New Hampshire.

[Coburn In 2012]

After four years of obama -- presuming he doesn't get impeached for ethics violations or something, I just bet a LOT of democrat states will be turning Republican in 2012.  We will definately winn back Virginia, Indiana, North Carolina, Florida, new Mexico, Colorado and Nevage.  Probably Ohio and Pa too and maybe more --

obama and pelosi corruption + incompetance = EPIC FAIL for the democrats in 2012

[Sbane]

I think we chronically over-rate trends, and chronically underrate circumstance.  Indiana had a big swing this year due to a transitory manufacturing situation.  Nevada, parts of California and other Sun Belt locations suffered from a transitory housing market crisis.  Even if these situations continue, there's no reason that they will constitute "trends"; even if the situations become trends (and why would they?) political responses tend to dull over time, not become exponential.   Gravity regresses political affiliation toward the mean.

Don't know if this was directed towards me but I recognize that people vote based on current circumstances. Yet it is undeniable that the ideology of the republican party and NH has drifted apart over the years. There may be other reasons such as hippies moving in, but I don't think that explains it all. And I am not saying that these trends will continue. If in 2012 the republicans nominate a social moderate/fiscal conservative candidate, they will do much better in NH. If by 2020 the democratic party is populist it won't be wining NH. The "trend" that I see is socially liberal but otherwise conservative people leaving the republican party in droves and they are overrepresented in NH. I just don't see the trend map and go "omgz trendzzzzzzz". And I would add that Boston exurbia will tend to be more socially moderate than the rest of the state and thus the lower swing against republicans. And more growth of like minded people is of course another reason.

Well for what it is worth, let me throw this article on the pile regarding what is fueling the changing political face of New Hampshire.

Interesting. I never knew there was such high turnover of voters in that state. Then again a lot of those people moving in live in exurbia......

[Holmes]

You guys can have Nevage.

Anyway yeah, New Hampshire has a lot of migration but I can't really say for certain that it's why it's a Democratic state now. It even has more registered Democrats than Republicans for the first time in history which is pretty significant.

[Stranger in a strange land]

New Hampshire is becoming more liberal because of the migration from Boston Massachusettes.

Massachusetts migrants to the southern tier of New Hampshire vote Republican. Think of them as exurban voters. The shift in N.H. is of long-time state residents leaving the Republican Party.

Torie, is there really migration from Vermont to N.H.? I thought of the trend more as parts of N.H. adjacent to Vermont, voting more like Vermont. 

yes, good point, and while the Boston exurbs are clearly going to be more Democratic than, say, Dallas exurbs, they're still going to be more Republican than most of Massachusetts, and thus not full of the stereotypical "Massachusetts liberals"

[Smash255]

You guys can have Nevage.

Anyway yeah, New Hampshire has a lot of migration but I can't really say for certain that it's why it's a Democratic state now. It even has more registered Democrats than Republicans for the first time in history which is pretty significant.

Migration + the GOP becoming focused on southern evangelicals has turned the state Democratic

Its not a socially conservative state

From the last Survey USA job approval in the state (which had an abortion breakdown)

Pro choice 69%  Pro life 27%

[Brittain33]

Well for what it is worth, let me throw this article on the pile regarding what is fueling the changing political face of New Hampshire.

Interesting, thanks. It seems the flaw has been to focus on the migration to the southern tier while not paying attention to the "churn" elsewhere in the state.

The facts about New Hampshire that I have the most difficult time reconciling with the idea of slow demographic change is that there have been dramatic swings in the state not one way, but both ways in this decade. 2002 was a Republican triumph in the state, with Democrats defeated on the semi-bogus issue of the state income tax and reduced to 1/3 in the Senate. It took 2006 for the Democrats to reverse the huge margins in the legislature. It seems you have a large number of voters who went from splitting their tickets in prior elections (Shaheen, Gore) with a Republican lean, to voting solidly Republican in 2002, to voting solidly Democratic in 2006. Who are these people? Can we define them as largely migrants? Is swing voting a migrant-driven phenomenon, and not something local Republicans ever considered? Can we answer this question before N.H. votes in an election where Republican candidates are somewhat viable?

[Torie]

Well for what it is worth, let me throw this article on the pile regarding what is fueling the changing political face of New Hampshire.

Interesting, thanks. It seems the flaw has been to focus on the migration to the southern tier while not paying attention to the "churn" elsewhere in the state.

The facts about New Hampshire that I have the most difficult time reconciling with the idea of slow demographic change is that there have been dramatic swings in the state not one way, but both ways in this decade. 2002 was a Republican triumph in the state, with Democrats defeated on the semi-bogus issue of the state income tax and reduced to 1/3 in the Senate. It took 2006 for the Democrats to reverse the huge margins in the legislature. It seems you have a large number of voters who went from splitting their tickets in prior elections (Shaheen, Gore) with a Republican lean, to voting solidly Republican in 2002, to voting solidly Democratic in 2006. Who are these people? Can we define them as largely migrants? Is swing voting a migrant-driven phenomenon, and not something local Republicans ever considered? Can we answer this question before N.H. votes in an election where Republican candidates are somewhat viable?

Sure GOP candidates are somewhat viable. NH has a lot of swing voters - more than in most states, and if the Dems revivify their image as feckless spenders, the Pubbies will rise like a phoenix in the Live Free or Die state. These swing voters are probably more migrants than long termers, but no doubt some long termers say in my little cohort of voters are considerably more in play than they used to be.

[Person Man]

After four years of obama -- presuming he doesn't get impeached for ethics violations or something, I just bet a LOT of democrat states will be turning Republican in 2012.  We will definately winn back Virginia, Indiana, North Carolina, Florida, new Mexico, Colorado and Nevage.  Probably Ohio and Pa too and maybe more --

obama and pelosi corruption + incompetance = EPIC FAIL for the democrats in 2012

Between the typos, grammar errors and spelling mistakes, I think this statement speaks for itself. I am far from worried about 2012.