US Births 2007 - An Analysis by State and Race

[Tender Branson]

I created this Excel sheet to show how births in the US broke down by state and race:



Release:

http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr57/nvsr57_12.pdf

[Ban my account ffs!]

It's interesting that you posted this.  There were several headlines discussing the newest "baby boomlet" because the number of births rose to a record level in 2007, surpassing the previous record set in 1957.

My county has seen a large increase in the number of births in the past 10 years, rising from around 550 in 1995 to 710 in 2007, the highest level since the late '50s.

The schools are predicting a significant rise in elementary school enrollment and they are worried that there isn't enough room.  They already closed schools in 2000 and 2003 when enrollment was dropping, but it has now turned around again.

Now several of the schools are overcrowded with music and art teachers having to wheel carts around so their classrooms can be used for regular classrooms.  At the same time, the high school enrollment has dropped from 1800 when I was in high school to just over 1300 today... in a building built to serve 2400 students.

But that's just it... you can't really predict fertility.  Nobody really knows why the birth rate has increased in the past few years after having dropped for the better part of 40 years.

[justfollowingtheelections]

great stuff!

[Tender Branson]

I just realized that I used Mid-2008 population numbers for 2007 Births ...

I'll correct it and post the new table soon

[Tender Branson]

I just realized that I used Mid-2008 population numbers for 2007 Births ...

I'll correct it and post the new table soon

Updated !

[Tender Branson]

Ohio seems to be the only bigger state with relatively few Hispanic children (4%).

Why is Ohio so anti-Hispanic ?

[Verily]

What's with Rhode Island and "Other"? Is that what the Portuguese immigrants call themselves? (Why not "white"?)

On the Census they identify as white, clearly. Bristol County is 96.81% white.

[ottermax]

Next minority-majority states: Nevada, Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Maryland, New Jersey, Rhode Island (?!)

[Padfoot]

Ohio seems to be the only bigger state with relatively few Hispanic children (4%).

Why is Ohio so anti-Hispanic ?

We aren't.  The Hispanic population of Ohio just isn't concentrated in the big cities like most places.  Most Ohio Hispanics live in the rural Northwestern portion of the state IIRC.  As such they don't compromise a large percentage of the population.

[Padfoot]

Alaska's Native American population seems to be booming.  At the last Census they comprised around 16% of the total population but according to this they account for over a quarter of all births in the state.

[Verily]

Alaska's Native American population seems to be booming.  At the last Census they comprised around 16% of the total population but according to this they account for over a quarter of all births in the state.

That's the case in all of the high-Native-population states except Oklahoma. For example, see South Dakota, 8.8% Native in 2000 but the birth percentage is exactly double that (17.6%). Montana is 7.4% Native, but the birth rate is 12.8%. New Mexico is 9.5% Native, but the birth rate is 12.6%.

Shouldn't be a big surprise, I would think. Mortality among Native Americans tends to be high, too (alcoholism), and many leave for major cities and blend into the rest of the population rather than hang around the Reservations. So the Native population isn't really growing rapidly in any of those states, except maybe Alaska.

[Psychic Octopus]

Will Hispanics overtake Whites in population numbers? If so, When?

[Holmes]

Will Hispanics overtake Whites in population numbers? If so, When?

2050 is when they say white people won't be a majority anymore, but latinos will only be at around 30% anyway. At least from what I've read.

[Alcon]

Alaska's Native American population seems to be booming.  At the last Census they comprised around 16% of the total population but according to this they account for over a quarter of all births in the state.

That's the case in all of the high-Native-population states except Oklahoma. For example, see South Dakota, 8.8% Native in 2000 but the birth percentage is exactly double that (17.6%). Montana is 7.4% Native, but the birth rate is 12.8%. New Mexico is 9.5% Native, but the birth rate is 12.6%.

Shouldn't be a big surprise, I would think. Mortality among Native Americans tends to be high, too (alcoholism), and many leave for major cities and blend into the rest of the population rather than hang around the Reservations. So the Native population isn't really growing rapidly in any of those states, except maybe Alaska.

Native Americans also have depressingly high infant morality rates.  Alcoholism is the primary component of the primary, but basically they have a higher rate of...everything.

[Sensei]

Alaska's Native American population seems to be booming.  At the last Census they comprised around 16% of the total population but according to this they account for over a quarter of all births in the state.

the rest are Palins

[Linus Van Pelt]

What's with Rhode Island and "Other"? Is that what the Portuguese immigrants call themselves? (Why not "white"?)

On the Census they identify as white, clearly. Bristol County is 96.81% white.

Cape Verdeans? 16.5% seems a little high, but there's a lot of them in R.I., and as partially black Portuguese-speakers their racial classification is pretty awkward. Wouldn't surprise me if they had a Hispanic-style birth rate either.

[Verily]

Will Hispanics overtake Whites in population numbers? If so, When?

2050 is when they say white people won't be a majority anymore, but latinos will only be at around 30% anyway. At least from what I've read.

Pretty much. But that also assumes current migration and birth rates stay the same, which is far from certain.

[Tender Branson]

To continue my US Birth Analysis, here's how things changed over the past 10 years:



Notice for example how Idaho's population increased by "only" 24%, but its births rose by 35%.

And Michigan: The state's population grew by 3%, but births are down by 6%.

[Ban my account ffs!]

Births are due to increase in the U.S. thanks to the general demographics.  The baby boomers had children from the late '70s to the early '90s and now the "echo boomers" (our generation) are beginning to have kids, so the number of child bearing young women is on the rise.

In my area, people tend to have kids about a year or two younger than in the rest of the state, so we see these trends earlier.  The number of births peaked and plateaued from the baby boom from 1951-1962 or so before falling rapidly (by about 40%) by 1967 before slowly rising throughout the '70s and then rising rapidly in the late '70s, and plateauing again all through the '80s before falling rapidly in the early '90s... and the process started over... births slowly rose from 1995-2000 but have really begun to boom since about 2004.

Births will continue to rise and stay high here for another 10 years or so before falling again.

From 2000 to 2007 our county grew just under 10%, but the number of births jumped 22%.  During the '90s, population grew 16% but births fell about 10%.

[Tender Branson]

Births are due to increase in the U.S. thanks to the general demographics.  The baby boomers had children from the late '70s to the early '90s and now the "echo boomers" (our generation) are beginning to have kids, so the number of child bearing young women is on the rise.

In my area, people tend to have kids about a year or two younger than in the rest of the state, so we see these trends earlier.  The number of births peaked and plateaued from the baby boom from 1951-1962 or so before falling rapidly (by about 40%) by 1967 before slowly rising throughout the '70s and then rising rapidly in the late '70s, and plateauing again all through the '80s before falling rapidly in the early '90s... and the process started over... births slowly rose from 1995-2000 but have really begun to boom since about 2004.

Births will continue to rise and stay high here for another 10 years or so before falling again.

From 2000 to 2007 our county grew just under 10%, but the number of births jumped 22%.  During the '90s, population grew 16% but births fell about 10%.

Indeed, remember that the mean age at first time birth is 25 years, therefore I´m awaiting another US baby-boom by 2020, when the women born around 1990-1995 will get their kids. That's because the absolute number of births in 1990-1995 was considerably higher than from 1975-80 (the women who are now getting their children).