Gay Marriage/Civil Unions in 10 years

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Just chill out.

Obama is playing this dart and knows that he has to get the economy in shape by 2012.  If that time comes and the only thing he's done is gay Rights issues, then he's going to have a problem winning again. The republicans are just waiting for President Obama to place himself in a liberal box and not fix the economy.   Right now theres bigger problems then gay rights.

Obama won't do anything about this issue BIG until the last parts of his second term.  But he has to get reelected to do so.

This is a calculated political move.

In due time.

wait for ur rights, lol

we busy right now, lol

in the meantime, we compare u to incest k? don't worry it's a plan, lol


Chew gum and walk?  too hard, lol

[Ogre Mage]

Just chill out.

Obama is playing this smart and knows that he has to get the economy in shape by 2012.  If that time comes and the only thing he's done is gay Rights issues, then he's going to have a problem winning again. The republicans are just waiting for President Obama to place himself in a liberal box and not fix the economy.   Right now theres bigger problems then gay rights.

Obama won't do anything about this issue BIG until the last parts of his second term.  But he has to get reelected to do so.

This is a calculated political move.

In due time.

While many in the gay community understood the Administration had other extremely pressing issues on its hands, the DOMA brief was a near-fatal blow to our confidence in this Administration.  Not only did it take a legal stand against gay rights, it did so in the most offensive terms -- by comparing gay marriage to marriage between an uncle and niece and marriage involving underage kids.  That is a clear sign this Administration is completely tone-deaf on gay rights.  Furthermore, it casts Obama's outreach to the anti-gay crowd (Rick Warren, Donnie McClurkin) in a bad light. 

I have very little confidence that they will do the right thing.  Perhaps if they are heavily pressured.

[MK]

Just chill out.

Obama is playing this smart and knows that he has to get the economy in shape by 2012.  If that time comes and the only thing he's done is gay Rights issues, then he's going to have a problem winning again. The republicans are just waiting for President Obama to place himself in a liberal box and not fix the economy.   Right now theres bigger problems then gay rights.

Obama won't do anything about this issue BIG until the last parts of his second term.  But he has to get reelected to do so.

This is a calculated political move.

In due time.

While many in the gay community understood the Administration had other extremely pressing issues on its hands, the DOMA brief was a near-fatal blow to our confidence in this Administration.  Not only did it take a legal stand against gay rights, it did so in the most offensive terms -- by comparing gay marriage to marriage between an uncle and niece and marriage involving underage kids.  That is a clear sign this Administration is completely tone-deaf on gay rights.  Furthermore, it casts Obama's outreach to the anti-gay crowd (Rick Warren, Donnie McClurkin) in a bad light. 

I have very little confidence that they will do the right thing.  Perhaps if they are heavily pressured.

Heavy pressure?   By whom?     You try that and it will blow up in your faces. The best thing is to chill the  out and let due process take its course.   The pro-gay side doesn't have the guns right now to win a 50 state mandate.  Obamas handlers know this that's why the stance your seeing.   The white house knows a  lot more about the political landscape of this issue then anybody on atlas right now.

[Ogre Mage]

Just chill out.

Obama is playing this smart and knows that he has to get the economy in shape by 2012.  If that time comes and the only thing he's done is gay Rights issues, then he's going to have a problem winning again. The republicans are just waiting for President Obama to place himself in a liberal box and not fix the economy.   Right now theres bigger problems then gay rights.

Obama won't do anything about this issue BIG until the last parts of his second term.  But he has to get reelected to do so.

This is a calculated political move.

In due time.

While many in the gay community understood the Administration had other extremely pressing issues on its hands, the DOMA brief was a near-fatal blow to our confidence in this Administration.  Not only did it take a legal stand against gay rights, it did so in the most offensive terms -- by comparing gay marriage to marriage between an uncle and niece and marriage involving underage kids.  That is a clear sign this Administration is completely tone-deaf on gay rights.  Furthermore, it casts Obama's outreach to the anti-gay crowd (Rick Warren, Donnie McClurkin) in a bad light. 

I have very little confidence that they will do the right thing.  Perhaps if they are heavily pressured.

Heavy pressure?   By whom?     You try that and it will blow up in your faces. The best thing is to chill the  out and let due process take its course.   The pro-gay side doesn't have the guns right now to win a 50 state mandate.  Obamas handlers know this that's why the stance your seeing.   The white house knows a  lot more about the political landscape of this issue then anybody on atlas right now.

No one with any sense is talking about a 50 state mandate.  However, I completely disagree on the pressure issue.  Sit silent and you will be ignored -- politics has always worked that way. 

I find the notion that Obama's White House is politically astute about gay rights laughable.  They would not be in a situation where they are having to do damage control if they were.  No one with any sensitivity on the issue would have compared it to incest.  It's telling that there are no gay men or lesbians among Obama's top advisors.

[Holmes]

The same-sex marriage bill is the first bill on the schedule today. No one knows what Diaz will do... but does it matter? If he stays with the Dems, the bill will come up. If he goes with Skelos and Espada, it'll still come up because they want it to as well. He can't leave cause Paterson will just sick the police on him and force him back(would be amusing to watch though). I wonder if he'll just shout prayers and chants while the floor debates the bill.

Here's something he said the other day:

"As a legislator of Hispanic origin, today I am very disappointed with those members of the Hispanic delegation in the State Assembly for supporting homosexual marriage in New York.
It is sad that the Hispanic legislators in the NYS Assembly will vote in favor of homosexual marriage today. Our community as a whole, Black, White, Asian, Islamic and Hispanic is at least 80% against homosexual marriage. Most New Yorkers are from communities that believes in moral, traditional and family values."

80%. Really. And I hate how he thinks he speaks for all latinos. My boyfriend and family are all latino and are nothing like him.. blah.

Gossip: He has two gay brothers and best friends.

[Tender Branson]

Pennsylvania (F&M)

The state legislature is considering several proposals related to gay marriage and civil unions. Would you favor or oppose a constitutional amendment that would allow homosexual couples to get legally married?

42% Favor
52% Oppose

Would you favor or oppose a state constitutional amendment that would define marriage as being between a man and a woman, thus barring marriages between gay and lesbian couples?

48% Favor
46% Oppose

Would you favor or oppose a state law that would allow homosexual couples to legally form civil unions, giving them some of the legal rights of married couples?

58% Favor
37% Oppose

http://edisk.fandm.edu/FLI/keystone/pdf/June%202009%20Franklin%20and%20Marshall%20College%20Poll%20Release.pdf

[Holmes]

Why would they ask the same question twice with different wording...


In Albany, apparently there's a compromise on the leadership, and it doesn't look good.

President pro tempore: Democratic Sen. Malcolm Smith

Senate majority leader: Republican Sen. Dean Skelos

Vice-president pro tempore: Democratic Sen. Pedro Espada

Democratic conference leader: Democratic Sen. John Sampson

With Malcolm Smith having some power, the same-sex marriage bill will never come to a vote. He's Diaz's lapdog, and even if he supports equality, he's poison as a leader.

[MK]

Just chill out.

Obama is playing this smart and knows that he has to get the economy in shape by 2012.  If that time comes and the only thing he's done is gay Rights issues, then he's going to have a problem winning again. The republicans are just waiting for President Obama to place himself in a liberal box and not fix the economy.   Right now theres bigger problems then gay rights.

Obama won't do anything about this issue BIG until the last parts of his second term.  But he has to get reelected to do so.

This is a calculated political move.

In due time.

While many in the gay community understood the Administration had other extremely pressing issues on its hands, the DOMA brief was a near-fatal blow to our confidence in this Administration.  Not only did it take a legal stand against gay rights, it did so in the most offensive terms -- by comparing gay marriage to marriage between an uncle and niece and marriage involving underage kids.  That is a clear sign this Administration is completely tone-deaf on gay rights.  Furthermore, it casts Obama's outreach to the anti-gay crowd (Rick Warren, Donnie McClurkin) in a bad light. 

I have very little confidence that they will do the right thing.  Perhaps if they are heavily pressured.

Heavy pressure?   By whom?     You try that and it will blow up in your faces. The best thing is to chill the  out and let due process take its course.   The pro-gay side doesn't have the guns right now to win a 50 state mandate.  Obamas handlers know this that's why the stance your seeing.   The white house knows a  lot more about the political landscape of this issue then anybody on atlas right now.

No one with any sense is talking about a 50 state mandate.  However, I completely disagree on the pressure issue.  Sit silent and you will be ignored -- politics has always worked that way. 

I find the notion that Obama's White House is politically astute about gay rights laughable.  They would not be in a situation where they are having to do damage control if they were.  No one with any sensitivity on the issue would have compared it to incest.  It's telling that there are no gay men or lesbians among Obama's top advisors.

Your heart wont let you think politically.

Its simple , Obama going into 2012  with a economy in bad shape and other problems abroad can't been seen as the gay rights candidate.  He has to get something done by then, and if he only manages to get gay rights.... then he has a major problem.

There goes any chance of winning a southern state and that 2008 map looks more like 2004. Assuming the GOP doesn't run somebody like Palin or Sanford.

[Holmes]

Maine Freedom To Marry site has opened, btw. I'm really impressed by how much outreach they do. Check out their calendar.

http://mainefreedomtomarry.com/calendar/2009-07

They go door to door every Saturday and phonebank every Wednesday, Thursday and Sunday. And they're already holding town halls this early and canvass at most public events. I hope California is taking note. (Although California is almost 40 times larger than Maine so it's way harder, but still)

[Tender Branson]

Ohio hates the g@ys:

Ohio voters oppose same-sex marriage 60 - 33 percent and tie 46 - 47 percent on support for same-sex civil unions.

Democrats split 47 - 46 percent on same-sex marriage, which is opposed 82 -16 percent by Republicans and 56 - 35 percent by independent voters. Opposition is 61 - 31 percent among white Catholics, 68 - 26 percent among white Protestants and 80 - 16 percent among white evangelical Christians.

Same-sex civil unions wins 53 - 40 percent support from Democrats and 50 - 39 percent support from independent voters, with Republicans opposed 62 - 33 percent.

Voters support 57 - 35 percent pending state legislation that would ban discrimination based on sexual orientation.

From June 26 - July 1, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,259 Ohio voters, with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percentage points.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1322.xml?ReleaseID=1346

[exopolitician]

Ohio hates the g@ys:

Ohio voters oppose same-sex marriage 60 - 33 percent and tie 46 - 47 percent on support for same-sex civil unions.

Democrats split 47 - 46 percent on same-sex marriage, which is opposed 82 -16 percent by Republicans and 56 - 35 percent by independent voters. Opposition is 61 - 31 percent among white Catholics, 68 - 26 percent among white Protestants and 80 - 16 percent among white evangelical Christians.

Same-sex civil unions wins 53 - 40 percent support from Democrats and 50 - 39 percent support from independent voters, with Republicans opposed 62 - 33 percent.

Voters support 57 - 35 percent pending state legislation that would ban discrimination based on sexual orientation.

From June 26 - July 1, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,259 Ohio voters, with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percentage points.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1322.xml?ReleaseID=1346

What a lovely state.

[ilikeverin]

Ohio hates the g@ys:

Wait... Ohio hates the goys/gays?

What?

[Marokai Backbeat]

Ohio hates the g@ys:

Ohio voters oppose same-sex marriage 60 - 33 percent and tie 46 - 47 percent on support for same-sex civil unions.

Democrats split 47 - 46 percent on same-sex marriage, which is opposed 82 -16 percent by Republicans and 56 - 35 percent by independent voters. Opposition is 61 - 31 percent among white Catholics, 68 - 26 percent among white Protestants and 80 - 16 percent among white evangelical Christians.

Same-sex civil unions wins 53 - 40 percent support from Democrats and 50 - 39 percent support from independent voters, with Republicans opposed 62 - 33 percent.

Voters support 57 - 35 percent pending state legislation that would ban discrimination based on sexual orientation.

From June 26 - July 1, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,259 Ohio voters, with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percentage points.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1322.xml?ReleaseID=1346

What a lovely state.

[Holmes]

Maine signature gatherers are lying. They say they have enough signatures right now.

I don't doubt that they're gonna get them. I just think that their announcement that they have the signatures, so they can use to fund raise better, is premature. Two weeks ago, they said they had gotten 11,000 - 13,000 signatures in the past three weeks. Then there were reports of them being confused and disorganized, not to mention it's been raining badly in Maine for the past month. Yesterday, they claimed that they had exactly the 55,000 signatures.

Now they're saying they have 70,000 signatures.

Really.

[Nutmeg]

Maine signature gatherers are lying. They say they have enough signatures right now.

I don't doubt that they're gonna get them. I just think that their announcement that they have the signatures, so they can use to fund raise better, is premature. Two weeks ago, they said they had gotten 11,000 - 13,000 signatures in the past three weeks. Then there were reports of them being confused and disorganized, not to mention it's been raining badly in Maine for the past month. Yesterday, they claimed that they had exactly the 55,000 signatures.

Now they're saying they have 70,000 signatures.

Really.

Opponents of equality are rarely disingenuous, so it is surprising that they would be misleading like this.

[Tender Branson]

As you may know same-sex couples were granted the right to legally marry in New Hampshire. Do you approve or disapprove of this decision ?

41% Approve
49% Disapprove

The Research 2000 New Hampshire Poll was conducted by Research 2000 of Rockville, Maryland from July 13 through July 15, 2009. A total of 600 likely voters who vote regularly in state elections were interviewed statewide by telephone.

http://www.dailykos.com/statepoll/2009/7/15/NH/319

[Holmes]

omg teh will of teh ppl not want gay maraige!1

In Maine, the Catholic Diocese of Portland has donated $100,000 to the efforts to repeal the law - can they just legally do that? And NOM has contributed $160,000. Bah them. The supporters have raised less funds so far but they're mostly getting their money from inside the state, from what I'm hearing.

Opponents are paranoid:

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Proponents are open:

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I think I should just open a separate thread about this campaign.. eventually.

[Frodo]

Backers of Gay Marriage Rethink California Push

By JESSE McKINLEY
Published: July 26, 2009

LOS ANGELES — Discouraged by stubborn poll numbers and pessimistic political consultants, major financial backers of same-sex marriage are cautioning gay rights groups to delay a campaign to overturn California’s ban on such unions until at least 2012.

Earlier this year, many supporters of same-sex marriage seemed eager to mount a 2010 campaign to overturn Proposition 8, which was passed by California voters in November and defined marriage as “between a man and a woman.”

But the timing of another campaign has since been questioned by several of the movement’s big donors, including David Bohnett, a millionaire philanthropist and technology entrepreneur who gave more than $1 million to the unsuccessful campaign to defeat Proposition 8.

“In conversations with a number of my fellow major No on 8 donors,” Mr. Bohnett said in an e-mail message, “I find that they share my sentiment: namely, that we will step up to the plate — with resources and talent — when the time is right.”

“The only thing worse than losing in 2008,” he added, “would be to lose again in 2010.”

[Holmes]

New straw poll of gay marriage leaders: Overturn Prop 8 in 2010

A straw poll of same sex marraige leaders gathered in San Bernardino Saturday just came in: The majority want to return to the ballot in 2010 to try to overturn Proposition 8. Final count of the nonbinding measure: 93 people voted to go in 2010, 49 in 2012 and 20 undecided.

The next step: Leaders will return to their organizations and then a final decision will be made in a couple of weeks. If they're going to go for it in 2010, they'd better hurry. Ballot language is due to the Attorney General by Sept. 25.


The only thing worse than losing in 2010, is not even trying in 2010. Next year is to their advantage, anyway - donors and volunteers will not be concentrated on Obama's efforts in Nevada or Arizona. Not to mention, in 2010 there'll be a lot more statewide candidates up for election who support the cause, compared to 2012.

Honestly, they act as if they got crushed in the polls, they're too afraid to do anything in fear of hurting their "image", and they apparently don't know how to run campaigns. Why aren't these people replaced anyway? Election day is in about 15 months, and they're stressing out because the polls say only 48% of voters would repeal prop 8 in 2010 and 49% of voters wouldn't. Wow.

California's groups need to take a lesson from New England's.