Second Depression Election What If: Dole vs Cuomo vs Perot

[Andy Jackson]

Lets say that the economic downturn during President Reagan is worse, which causes an second depression in the mid to late 1980's. Democrats surge ahead in the Congressional Elections of 1986 as they sit comfortably back and say that 1988 is an lock for the Democrats. Many major candidates declare there interest such as Governors Mario Cuomo of New York, Michael Dukakis of Massachusetts and Bill Clinton of Arkansas, the all out brawl for the nomination would then begin.

The Democratic Primaries became an battle in the beginning with Cuomo vs Clinton as Dukakis and Simon wouldn't do as well as OTL as Cuomo pulled much of the liberal support and Gephardt, Gore and Jackson would take some hits as Clinton took a portion of the south. The battle would finally end as Cuomo came out on top but Democrats were worried about the bruising primary campaign but reassured themselves that 1988 was a lock for them. Cuomo would choose Senator Dale Bumpers from Arkansas, the convention was supposed to be a complete celebration but Cuomo would say to tone it down, saying "I don't think all those many Americans on the streets would appreciate the party that says there going to change the nation and give aid to hold an expensive celebration that's no more than a slap in their faces..". The Convention was toned down but still was a big bash as Cuomo and Bumpers declared it was "Time for America to Shine".

The Republican Primaries are bloody as Vice President Bush is the unlucky one running in such an inhospitable environment. Dole would beat Bush both in Iowa and New Hampshire and would ultimately push Bush out of the race and would become the presumptive nominee as Dole and Pat Robertson trade wins in the south. Dole would choose Pennsylvania Governor Dick Thornburgh in a suprise.

Independents and third parties were trying to vie for votes and one Independent became an major player in the 1988 campaign. Businessman H. Ross Perot would announce his candidacy and would trumpet his incite on economics, one of his campaign slogans would echo this as "Economic Recovery" and "Perot Knows". Dole and Gephardt would call Perot a "kook" and "loony", still his talk about fixing the economy garnered a wide field of support. For his runningmate would be friend Admiral James Stockdale, who would be an gaffe maker in many peoples eyes as his poor VP debate made people unsure about him.

So, how would the 1988 Election play out under these circumstances, discuss, with maps if you wish.

[Senator Ben]

If things are as bad as you say, I doubt the major candidates would've sat out.  We would have seen every big Democrat under the sun run for President, including Cuomo, Dukakis, Hart, etc.

[Andy Jackson]

If things are as bad as you say, I doubt the major candidates would've sat out.  We would have seen every big Democrat under the sun run for President, including Cuomo, Dukakis, Hart, etc.

Okay, I can see that, to keeps things moving lets say its a Cuomo/Bumpers vs Dole/Thornburgh vs Perot/Stockdale(I'll put Cuomo in as the candidate on my original post right now)

[You kip if you want to...]

Cuomo/Bumpers (D) - 439 EVs
Dole/Thornburgh (R) - 79 EVs
Perot/Stockdale (I) - 20 EVs

This is based on results from 1988 and 1992. Most states where Dukakis came close, i've given to Cuomo; most states where Clinton came close i've given to Cuomo. Bush '92 states in which Perot did well in, i've given to Perot. Some states, like Tennessee where just from my gut feeling; even Gore couldn't do it (although that was not in a depression, but it was his home state).

The 5 closest state are:
1. New Hampshire - The margin was just a few hundred votes.
2. Kansas - Perot comes close to carrying the state, but the Favourite Son wins it.
3. Mississippi
4. Nebraska
5. Idaho