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| | | |-+  Rudy vs. Obama 2008
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Author Topic: Rudy vs. Obama 2008  (Read 2294 times)
Keystone Phil
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« on: March 23, 2009, 12:38:54 pm »
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I'm sure this has been done for basically every major GOP candidate from 2008 but I am interested in recent comments.

I've always wondered how Rudy would do. He'd be a very interesting candidate in the General. He'd have to deal with a less enthusiastic base but it could be argued that he'd still get them to turn out because of his economic and law and order/war views. I'm especially interested in what a Giuliani candidacy would be like since I'm an urban Republican. I know that there would be many ethnic areas of many cities that wouldn't be fond of his cultural views/personal issues but would absolutely love him on dealing with crime. Whether you agree with this or not, he's seen as a hero that rebuilt America's biggest city. I know plenty of people that would love to see that in their major urban area. I think he would have brought a real energy to urban and suburban Republican organizations. I don't want to say that I wished he was our nominee in 2008. I still have too many differences with the man (even though I have some admiration for him in certain areas) but it would have been interesting.

I used to think that he'd lose just as bad or worse than any Republican in 2008 because of his disconnect with the base but I've come to think that it might not be as bad as we once thought. He knows how to act (remember his sarcastic "They must cling to religion there" comment at the convention?) and had a religious heavyweight (Robertson) in his corner early on.

Finally, I know that we all think of his campaign as an absolute disaster (one of the worst campaigns by a major contender) but I've always felt that he would have a great team for the General. He just wasn't the type of candidate that could really master a Republican primary but let's say, for argument's sake, that he found a way to win the nomination. How would this race play out?
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officepark
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« Reply #1 on: March 23, 2009, 01:02:46 pm »
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Rudolph Giuliani loses in a landslide. Not even Utah would be safe.
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« Reply #2 on: March 23, 2009, 01:04:14 pm »
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #3 on: March 23, 2009, 01:42:24 pm »
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No way the conservative base would turn out for Giuliani. And I think the Obama campaign would work overtime to burn into their brains that infamous photo of Rudy in drag.

Crime alone wouldn't make a difference. We aren't in the 80's and Obama was no Dukakis.
His 9/11 schtick had already become a staple of late night comedians, and with Biden on the Democratic ticket it would be even moreso.

Finally, it wasn't so much his inept campaign that doomed Giulian, as much the fact that wherever he campaigned, his poll numbers tanked. The more the voters saw the guy, the less they liked him.
With Obama the exact opposite happened. You do the math.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #4 on: March 23, 2009, 02:31:37 pm »
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Finally, it wasn't so much his inept campaign that doomed Giulian, as much the fact that wherever he campaigned, his poll numbers tanked. The more the voters saw the guy, the less they liked him.


Uh, I don't think so. His numbers were high in places where he wasn't even campaigning that much. People didn't see him much in places like NH (where he had a shot at winning) and quite literally forgot that he was even running.

Not even Utah would be safe.

Absolute silliness.
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Psychic Octopus
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« Reply #5 on: March 23, 2009, 07:29:27 pm »
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Although I admire Rudy Giuliani's courage and decisiveness, he would be walking into a slaughter. He may be running about where McCain was in March-August, but he would not have picked Palin and probably would have gone with Rick Perry. Without her to being out conservatives and the economic downturn, it leads to a 407-131 Landslide Victory with Obama taking approximately 55% of the vote.
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« Reply #6 on: March 23, 2009, 07:41:16 pm »
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Not even Utah would be safe.

Absolute silliness.

That is not "absolute silliness". I was serious when I said that, just as I am serious now. And yes, Giuliani would have problems winning even the most solid Republican states, in part because of much less conservative turnout for the Republicans. Another reason: it could be that the conservatives, disliking both of the major party candidates, would form a third party movement. Both of these would be factors in Giuliani losing so heavily.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #7 on: March 23, 2009, 07:45:37 pm »
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Not even Utah would be safe.

Absolute silliness.

That is not "absolute silliness". I was serious when I said that, just as I am serious now. And yes, Giuliani would have problems winning even the most solid Republican states, in part because of much less conservative turnout for the Republicans. Another reason: it could be that the conservatives, disliking both of the major party candidates, would form a third party movement. Both of these would be factors in Giuliani losing so heavily.

Rudy would have a strong conservative running mate to make sure the safe states stayed safe. I admit that a third party challenge could happen but with major backers like Pat Robertson, I think they'd make sure that Rudy wouldn't be challenged from the right. Plus, as crazy as it seems, they seemed more energized for Rudy than they were for McCain.
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« Reply #8 on: March 23, 2009, 07:50:10 pm »
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Rudy was my guy. I would've loved to see him run a campaign against Obama. I assure you it would have been much dirtier than McCain, who stood by in the name of honor and respect while he was dragged through the mud by Obama's machine. I think he would've performed better in some areas and worse in others. The turnout in the south would still be way down, but I doubt he loses it. He may have done better in Virginia and Pennsylvania. It would be interesting as to whether he could've help some of the more liberal Republicans in his camp who were alienated by the Palin pick.

I don't know. I often wonder what the election would look like if he had made it through the primary. Would he have gotten slaughtered in the urban areas like McCain did? And in the suburbs? I don't know. I think the base was already disinterested in McCain, and I don't know if it would've made a difference.


Also, it is silly to say he would've lost Utah. No way does he lose that state. The Mormons would vote for a GOP candidate no matter what, and I would assume Officepark would vote for Giuliani as well. Obama was not an alternative for the base. There was threats of a third party with McCain as well from the big Religious Right leaders, but they eventually gave in and supported McCain. Pat Robertson threw his weight behind Rudy early. It's nonsense to say that he would've lost much worse than McCain. I doubt it. Here's a map I think would've happened.


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« Reply #9 on: March 23, 2009, 07:58:37 pm »
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Not even Utah would be safe.

Absolute silliness.

That is not "absolute silliness". I was serious when I said that, just as I am serious now. And yes, Giuliani would have problems winning even the most solid Republican states, in part because of much less conservative turnout for the Republicans. Another reason: it could be that the conservatives, disliking both of the major party candidates, would form a third party movement. Both of these would be factors in Giuliani losing so heavily.

Rudy would have a strong conservative running mate to make sure the safe states stayed safe. I admit that a third party challenge could happen but with major backers like Pat Robertson, I think they'd make sure that Rudy wouldn't be challenged from the right. Plus, as crazy as it seems, they seemed more energized for Rudy than they were for McCain.

No. Rudy would alienate conservatives, even if he selects a conservative for VP. Remember: the ticket would be Rudy/conservative, not conservative/Rudy.  The VP has very little power in comparison to the president, and the conservative being second to Rudy, instead of the other way around, does not cause conservatives to let him off the hook. Also, I doubt that Pat Robertson would endorse a ticket with Giuliani as presidential nominee.
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officepark
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« Reply #10 on: March 23, 2009, 08:17:38 pm »
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He may have done better in Virginia and Pennsylvania. It would be interesting as to whether he could've help some of the more liberal Republicans in his camp who were alienated by the Palin pick.

...Also, it is silly to say he would've lost Utah. No way does he lose that state. The Mormons would vote for a GOP candidate no matter what, and I would assume Officepark would vote for Giuliani as well. Obama was not an alternative for the base. There was threats of a third party with McCain as well from the big Religious Right leaders, but they eventually gave in and supported McCain. Pat Robertson threw his weight behind Rudy early. It's nonsense to say that he would've lost much worse than McCain. I doubt it. Here's a map I think would've happened.



Oh no no, most certainly not!! In fact, I would vote for Obama over Giuliani!

I am only joking, of course. Seriously though, I would not vote for Giuliani (I would indeed vote third party), and what makes you think that I would?

Also, your talk about Giuliani doing better than McCain in VA and elsewhere, that is what is silly. Your map shows Giuliani doing better than McCain, and that is nonsense. Further, Mormons do not necessarily vote Republican.

Plus, liberal Republicans are basically Democrats, so they would have voted for Obama in almost any case. Giuliani was more liberal than McCain, but the liberal Republicans would still go for Obama.
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Clearly the solution is to privatize presidential elections.

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« Reply #11 on: March 23, 2009, 09:30:58 pm »
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #12 on: March 23, 2009, 11:21:48 pm »
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Also, I doubt that Pat Robertson would endorse a ticket with Giuliani as presidential nominee.

I hate ignorance...





In case it isn't clear, thats a photo of Pat Robertson endorsing Rudy Giuliani during the primaries. I guess you just happened to forget one of the bigger stories of the primary campaign.
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« Reply #13 on: March 24, 2009, 12:22:45 am »
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If the New York tabloids and press had not crushed Giuliani's candidacy as they did in Dec. 2007 with the stories about his courtship with his third wife and the Kerik mess, they would certainly have done so in the general.  No conservative backers, from Robertson to the most conservative VP candidate, could have salvaged his candidacy from that hailstorm of problems, and many wouldn't want to.  If conservative voters in Ohio and Florida cost McCain, a war hero and a steadfast pro-life voter, those states by staying at home, they would certainly have sat out on any ticket Giuliani headed up.  I think, in a general between Obama and Giuliani, after those stories that broke in Dec. 2007 break instead in July or August of 2008, Giuliani would try to find his way out of it by slinging more mud at Obama than McCain was willing to, and the election gets ugly very quickly, but Giuliani's image as a 9/11 "hero" is tarnished by all this, and he never pulls ahead in the polls.  Obama gets 380ish electoral votes in this one. 
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officepark
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« Reply #14 on: March 24, 2009, 07:57:44 pm »
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Here is the map.



Obama: 430
Conservative third party: 108
Giuliani: 0

Obama wins like Wilson in 1912.
« Last Edit: March 24, 2009, 08:08:27 pm by I approve this message »Logged

Clearly the solution is to privatize presidential elections.

So, in less than four years, get excited for the 2016 MetLife Financial U Pick The Prez Extravaganza. If you tweet a picture of your completed ballot with the hashtag #ivoted, you could win a trip for two to the inauguration or an iTunes gift card.
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« Reply #15 on: March 24, 2009, 09:27:39 pm »
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I wonder what that would do to Republicans down ticket if the Sectarian Nationalists formed their own party. I am guessing it would be the Constitution Party?
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« Reply #16 on: April 02, 2009, 10:26:57 am »
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Obama     411
Giuliani       66
Whoever    71



Third Party, essentially conservative with a Southern base. Obama wins everything that he won in real life + MO, MT, AZ, WV,  NE-01 and MS.

The conservative vote splits enough to allow Obama to win West Virginia; conservatives split the white vote in most of the South but only enough to allow Obama to win Mississippi in a 38-32-30 split. Texas gets a similar split for Giuliani, where George Bush actively campaigns for him. That's the elder George H.W. Bush, of course. Georgia barely goes to the Southern conservative in a similar split.
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