Fivethirtyeight.com's performances

[nclib]

I voted 'very reliable'. Most are pretty close.

Here are the underdogs according to their model, that won:

House Dems

McNerney, CA-11   31.9%
Murphy, CT-5   40.2%
Bishop, GA-2   40.5%
Schrader, OR-5   43.0%
Owens, NY-23   43.7%
Costa, CA-20   46.4%
Kissell, NC-8   46.6%
   
GOP

Buerkle, NY-25   6.8%
Grimm, NY-13   10.4%
Walsh, IL-8   11.8%
Farenthold, TX-27   23.4%
Cravaack, MN-8   26.5%
Dold, IL-10   31.6%
Gibbs, OH-18   35.5%
Labrador, ID-1   38.7%
Griffith, VA-9   38.9%
Hanna, NY-24   39.7%
Bass, NH-2   45.4%
Johnson, OH-6   49.4%

Senate   
Reid, NV   16.6%
Murkowski, AK   21.0%
Bennet, CO   34.9%

Governor
Quinn, IL   18.3%