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Author Topic: Presidential Results by Congressional District Project Now Complete  (Read 20105 times)
DavidNYC
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« on: March 25, 2009, 12:56:13 pm »
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The Swing State Project is pleased to announce that we have finished calculating presidential results by congressional district for all 435 districts nationwide. You can find all the results here:

http://www.swingstateproject.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=4161

Special thanks to Alcon of these boards for providing comprehensive results for the state of Washington.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #1 on: March 25, 2009, 01:28:33 pm »
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Congratulations for your excellent work.

You and your site have become a valuable source for every self-respecting political junkie.
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« Reply #2 on: March 25, 2009, 02:43:28 pm »
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Excellent!

Was 2004 ever done as well? There are several states that never had results or maps published for 2004 by CD on this site, though 2000 was completely done along with a national map. Would be nice to get all that data along with national CD maps on here for both 2004 and 2008.
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Hashemite
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« Reply #3 on: March 25, 2009, 03:13:00 pm »
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I compiled a map of this throughout, so here it is, finished.



I might do 2004 now.
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Antonio V
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« Reply #4 on: March 25, 2009, 04:20:17 pm »
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I compiled a map of this throughout, so here it is, finished.



I might do 2004 now.

Do you know how Many CDs were won by Obama ?
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22:15   ComradeSibboleth   this is all extremely terrible and in all respects absolutely fycking dire.

It really is.



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Hashemite
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« Reply #5 on: March 25, 2009, 04:32:12 pm »
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I compiled a map of this throughout, so here it is, finished.



I might do 2004 now.

Do you know how Many CDs were won by Obama ?

242. 193 for McCain.
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Lewis Trondheim
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« Reply #6 on: March 25, 2009, 04:32:37 pm »
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Oooooh!

I just came onto my keyboard [/exagerrate].
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #7 on: March 25, 2009, 05:23:44 pm »
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I compiled a map of this throughout, so here it is, finished.



I might do 2004 now.

Just a small nitpick: Obama won Barrow's district in Georgia.
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« Reply #8 on: March 25, 2009, 05:45:18 pm »
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DavidNYC, congratulations on this accomplishment.

I know some states haven't divided the early votes and/or split precincts. In some states (mainly FL, GA, NC) some districts could be altered by several percent. Do you know when that will be complete?
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DavidNYC
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« Reply #9 on: March 25, 2009, 09:04:38 pm »
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First off, a huge thank you to everyone for all the kind compliments - coming from denizens of this board, this is high praise indeed.

Second, to answer the folks asking about data from earlier years, the link I posted in my first comment contains data for 2008, 2004, and 2000. While we only compiled 2008 ourselves, the older data is from a trusted source (Polidata by way of the Cook Political Report) and was used in the Almanac of American Politics. Please note that the 2000 data was indeed recalibrated for the post-2000 census redistricting, and the 2004 data for Georgia and Texas reflects the mid-decade redistricting those two states did.

To answer the question about early votes and split precincts, I don't think that those states (eg, Georgia) ever release proper data. We've made some educated guesses about what those splits are or ought to be, and we will probably have a more detailed post forthcoming about that. While it would be possible for results to shift somewhat, we think it's unlikely that there would be any major surprises.
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« Reply #10 on: March 26, 2009, 02:17:21 am »
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Congratulations, David.  I know you and your team worked long and hard on this.  Looks like you were easily the first ones, after all.  Glad to have been a small part of it.  Smiley
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« Reply #11 on: March 26, 2009, 05:44:52 am »
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I compiled a map of this throughout, so here it is, finished.



I might do 2004 now.

Do you know how Many CDs were won by Obama ?

242. 193 for McCain.

So, democrats won 15 more districts in the House elections that Obama did... Huh
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22:15   ComradeSibboleth   this is all extremely terrible and in all respects absolutely fycking dire.

It really is.



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Lewis Trondheim
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« Reply #12 on: March 26, 2009, 06:36:53 am »
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So, democrats won 15 more districts in the House elections that Obama did... Huh
This is surprising how?

There still are more areas solidly Republican at the presidential level but ready to vote for Democrats locally or even congressionally than the other way round.
And McCain clearly overperformed compared to Generic Republican in 2008. And not just in the anti-Obama Swing areas (though there by most. Presumably.)

House Democrats whose districts went for McCain:

McMahon, Massa (NY)
Dahlkemper, Altmire, Carney, Murtha, Holden (all in PA... most of these very close)
Wilson, Boccieri, Space (OH)
Ellsworth, Hill (IN 8 and 9 - both close)
Peterson (MN 7)
Skelton (MO 4)
Pomeroy, Herseth (Dakotas)
Kratovil (MD 1)
Perriello, Boucher (VA)
both WV Democrats
McIntyre, Shuler (NC, both close)
Spratt (SC 5)
Marshall (GA Cool
Boyd, Kozmas (FL - one blue dog, one scandal destroyed incumbent in a close district)
Chandler (KY 6)
Davis, Gordon, Tanner (TN)
Bright, Griffith (AL)
Childers, Taylor (MS)
all 3 AR Democrats
Melancon (LA 3)
Boren (OK 2)
Edwards (TX 17)
Minnick (ID 1)
Salazar, Markey (the two vast districts in CO, both close)
Teague (NM 2, close)
Kirkpatrick, Mitchell, Giffords (AZ... and given how similar areas in other states swung, possibly all three can be attributed to a Home State Effect for McCain)
Matheson (UT 2)

House Republicans whose district went for Obama

McHugh (NY 23)
LoBiondo, Lance (NJ)
Gerlach, Dent (PA)
Tiberi (OH 12)
Roskam, Kirk, Biggert, Manzullo (IL... just a tiny bit more of a swing and McCain would have been reduced to one district)
Camp, Upton, Rogers, McCotter (MI)
Ryan, Petri (WI)
Paulson (MN 3)
Latham (IA 4)
Terry (NE 2)
Castle (DE)
Forbes, Wolf (VA)
Young, Ros Lehtinen (FL)
Cao (LA 2)
Lungren, Gallegly, McKeon, Dreier, Calvert, Bono, Campbell, Bilbray (all in CA - a state where McCain probably did worse than Generic R. Almost all very close, mind)
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"Our party do not have any ideology... Our main aim is to grab power ... Every one is doing so but I say it openly." Keshav Dev Maurya
Hashemite
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« Reply #13 on: March 26, 2009, 06:54:06 am »
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Second, to answer the folks asking about data from earlier years, the link I posted in my first comment contains data for 2008, 2004, and 2000. While we only compiled 2008 ourselves, the older data is from a trusted source (Polidata by way of the Cook Political Report) and was used in the Almanac of American Politics. Please note that the 2000 data was indeed recalibrated for the post-2000 census redistricting, and the 2004 data for Georgia and Texas reflects the mid-decade redistricting those two states did.

If I understand correctly, the 2000 results are notional results for the 2002 redistricting, and the 2004 GA+TX results are notional results on the new post-2004 districts there?
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Nym90
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« Reply #14 on: March 26, 2009, 11:48:10 am »
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First off, a huge thank you to everyone for all the kind compliments - coming from denizens of this board, this is high praise indeed.

Second, to answer the folks asking about data from earlier years, the link I posted in my first comment contains data for 2008, 2004, and 2000. While we only compiled 2008 ourselves, the older data is from a trusted source (Polidata by way of the Cook Political Report) and was used in the Almanac of American Politics. Please note that the 2000 data was indeed recalibrated for the post-2000 census redistricting, and the 2004 data for Georgia and Texas reflects the mid-decade redistricting those two states did.

To answer the question about early votes and split precincts, I don't think that those states (eg, Georgia) ever release proper data. We've made some educated guesses about what those splits are or ought to be, and we will probably have a more detailed post forthcoming about that. While it would be possible for results to shift somewhat, we think it's unlikely that there would be any major surprises.

Awesome. Perhaps you can inform Dave Leip and see if he would permit the 2004 data and maps to be added to this site?
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Sbane
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« Reply #15 on: March 26, 2009, 02:39:01 pm »
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I compiled a map of this throughout, so here it is, finished.



I might do 2004 now.

Do you know how Many CDs were won by Obama ?

242. 193 for McCain.

So, democrats won 15 more districts in the House elections that Obama did... Huh

As has been stated above there were a lot of areas where generic democrats did better than Obama( most of the non black south, Appalachia, East Ohio/West PA). Then there were places where Obama did better than a generic democrat like most of California, Illinois( obviously), and most of the upper midwest. That is actually pretty significant imo, but still in this election a democrats did better at the local level than at the presidential level. 
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Hashemite
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« Reply #16 on: March 28, 2009, 07:55:44 am »
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2008, fixed



2004, on post-2004 GA and TX districts



2008 comparison between House and Prez




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Verily
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« Reply #17 on: March 28, 2009, 01:41:34 pm »
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OH-15 should be Obama-Democrat, not Obama-Republican. Same with KY-03. There's also a district around Pittsburgh with weird shading that should be McCain-Republican. PA-15 should be Obama-Republican, not Obama-Democrat.

Also, what was the result in CO-04?
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Ronnie
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« Reply #18 on: March 28, 2009, 03:10:40 pm »
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In addition to OH-15, fix NY-24 and KY-3.

Verily, to see all of the CD results, check here:

http://www.swingstateproject.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=4161
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Hashemite
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« Reply #19 on: March 28, 2009, 05:28:48 pm »
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OH-15 should be Obama-Democrat, not Obama-Republican. Same with KY-03. There's also a district around Pittsburgh with weird shading that should be McCain-Republican. PA-15 should be Obama-Republican, not Obama-Democrat.

Also, what was the result in CO-04?

49.54% McCain, 48.66% Obama

In addition to OH-15, fix NY-24 and KY-3.

Verily, to see all of the CD results, check here:

http://www.swingstateproject.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=4161

NY-24 has a Democratic representative.
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Ronnie
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« Reply #20 on: March 28, 2009, 08:49:44 pm »
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Quote
NY-24 has a Democratic representative.

But McCain didn't win the district.  Hence the light blue color.
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« Reply #21 on: March 28, 2009, 09:22:33 pm »
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Quote
NY-24 has a Democratic representative.

But McCain didn't win the district.  Hence the light blue color.

Ah. I see what you mean. Sorry for the confusion.

F'xed map:

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benconstine
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« Reply #22 on: March 28, 2009, 11:23:26 pm »
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A surprising number of McCain/Democratic CD's; not just from the South.
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« Reply #23 on: March 29, 2009, 12:20:21 am »
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A surprising number of McCain/Democratic CD's; not just from the South.

Actually most of them are in the south plus Ohio, West Virginia and Western Pa. Arizona is easily explained but Colorado is a bit more interesting. Then again the CO-4 was pretty damn close. The northern plains isn't that surprising either.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #24 on: March 29, 2009, 01:00:21 am »
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A surprising number of McCain/Democratic CD's; not just from the South.

Don't forget that the Democrats hold now a big majority of CD.
That along with Republican gerrymandering can explain the seeming discrepancy.
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