UK 1997: Heseltine - Smith

[big bad fab]

Suppose John Smith is alive.
Suppose Michael Heseltine eventually succeeds in becoming Tory leader.

Who would have become PM ?

[k-onmmunist]

This is a good but hard question.

I reckon Smith would win however... people were just sick of Conservative rule and the odds were stacked against them.

[big bad fab]

Would John Smith have been a good campaigner, harsh enough, strong enough ?
Remember 1997 election wasn't a snap election, so campaign began longer before it did in 1987 or 2001 or 2005.

But, on the other hand, Heseltine would have said some "niceties" or "oddities" that may have killed his campaign...

And, granted, Tories were very, very low, whatever their leader.

At least, there would have been a little more uncertainty in the final result.

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

I think Labour would have won with a stray cat as their leader in 1997 - The Tories had been in for 18 years, and people were getting tired of them. I do believe that John Smith, had he lived, wouldn't have won as many seats as Blair, still a Labour majority of at least 100 would have been likely.

[Dr. Cynic]

No doubt in my mind that Smith would've had a majority. After 18 years, people wanted a change, even Tory politicians acknowledged that. I think the Lib Dems may have gotten a few extra seats because I don't think Smith would've gotten a Blair-like majority.

Would John Smith have been a good campaigner, harsh enough, strong enough ?
Remember 1997 election wasn't a snap election, so campaign began longer before it did in 1987 or 2001 or 2005.

Smith was okay. He wasn't young and dynamic like Blair, but he was a good campaigner and was quite popular in Britain. He was one of the Labour moderates like Hattersley, but to the left of Blair and right of Kinnock.

[Supersonic]

Labour majority of 80 to 100.

Once the UK was forced off ERM II, the Tories were doomed to lose the next election.