What would be the 2nd turn if French presidential elections were held now?
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  What would be the 2nd turn if French presidential elections were held now?
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Author Topic: What would be the 2nd turn if French presidential elections were held now?  (Read 3394 times)
Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]
tsionebreicruoc
Junior Chimp
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« on: April 14, 2009, 01:34:30 PM »

I note that this board is until now almost monopolized by French threads, here's one more:

If French presidential elections were held now, what would be the 2nd turn?

For now, I would say:

Bayrou vs. Besancenot

You?
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Hashemite
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« Reply #1 on: April 14, 2009, 03:03:28 PM »


ROFLMAO. Besancenot may be popular, but he wouldn't come anywhere close beating Sarkozy and Royal. The candidates may be personally unpopular, but the parties behind them have strong machines. The NPA doesn't. Not to say he wouldn't poll well, he would. Possibly at Le Pen's 2007 level.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
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« Reply #2 on: April 14, 2009, 04:16:36 PM »

1st round :

Sarkozy : 26%
Bayrou : 23%
Royal : 22%
Besancenot : 11%
Le Pen : 6%
Laguiller : 3%
Voynet : 3%
Villiers : 2%
Buffet : 2%
Nihous : 1%
Bové : 1%
Schivardi : 0%


2nd round :

Bayrou : 54%
Sarkozy : 46%
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Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]
tsionebreicruoc
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #3 on: April 14, 2009, 06:09:42 PM »

1st round :

Sarkozy : 26%
Bayrou : 23%
Royal : 22%
Besancenot : 11%
Le Pen : 6%
Laguiller : 3%
Voynet : 3%
Villiers : 2%
Buffet : 2%
Nihous : 1%
Bové : 1%
Schivardi : 0%


2nd round :

Bayrou : 54%
Sarkozy : 46%

You make it with names of 2007, but in my question, it's fully free, you can pick anyone you want through those you think that they could be at a 2nd turn if the election were held now.
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Hashemite
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« Reply #4 on: April 14, 2009, 06:14:30 PM »

1st round :

Sarkozy : 26%
Bayrou : 23%
Royal : 22%
Besancenot : 11%
Le Pen : 6%
Laguiller : 3%
Voynet : 3%
Villiers : 2%
Buffet : 2%
Nihous : 1%
Bové : 1%
Schivardi : 0%


2nd round :

Bayrou : 54%
Sarkozy : 46%

You make it with names of 2007, but in my question, it's fully free, you can pick anyone you want through those you think that they could be at a 2nd turn if the election were held now.

I nominate the ghost of Louis-Napoléon Bonaparte Grin
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Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]
tsionebreicruoc
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #5 on: April 14, 2009, 06:21:34 PM »

1st round :

Sarkozy : 26%
Bayrou : 23%
Royal : 22%
Besancenot : 11%
Le Pen : 6%
Laguiller : 3%
Voynet : 3%
Villiers : 2%
Buffet : 2%
Nihous : 1%
Bové : 1%
Schivardi : 0%


2nd round :

Bayrou : 54%
Sarkozy : 46%

You make it with names of 2007, but in my question, it's fully free, you can pick anyone you want through those you think that they could be at a 2nd turn if the election were held now.

I nominate the ghost of Louis-Napoléon Bonaparte Grin

Well, in a sens could be a not so bad choice, he would develop trains! What would be fine for ecology. But, well, even his ghost could have an heart attack seeing our world.
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War on Want
Evilmexicandictator
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #6 on: April 14, 2009, 07:45:46 PM »

I have to ask, what is the state of French politics right now? I haven't paid any attention to France since 2007.
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Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]
tsionebreicruoc
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #7 on: April 14, 2009, 07:49:44 PM »

I have to ask, what is the state of French politics right now? I haven't paid any attention to France since 2007.

Hmm, to sum up? It could sum up. Ad to this that the PS doesn't stop his fall.
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« Reply #8 on: April 14, 2009, 08:02:22 PM »

I have to ask, what is the state of French politics right now? I haven't paid any attention to France since 2007.

PM me.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
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« Reply #9 on: April 15, 2009, 04:47:19 AM »

1st round :

Sarkozy : 26%
Bayrou : 23%
Royal : 22%
Besancenot : 11%
Le Pen : 6%
Laguiller : 3%
Voynet : 3%
Villiers : 2%
Buffet : 2%
Nihous : 1%
Bové : 1%
Schivardi : 0%


2nd round :

Bayrou : 54%
Sarkozy : 46%

You make it with names of 2007, but in my question, it's fully free, you can pick anyone you want through those you think that they could be at a 2nd turn if the election were held now.

Ah, OK. So 1st round :

Sarkozy : 28%
Strauss-Khan : 25%
Bayrou : 17%
Besancenot : 9%
Mélenchon : 6%
Le Pen : 5%
Cohn-Bendit : 4%
Villiers : 3%
Nihous : 2%
Schivardi : 1%


2nd round :

Strauss-Khan : 52%
Sarkozy : 48%
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Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]
tsionebreicruoc
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #10 on: April 15, 2009, 08:07:27 AM »

I didn't think about Strauss-Kahn, that's a possibility.

But, if ever we can avoid Besancenot at 2nd turn, I really don't see Sarkozy able to reach it. He got the French people once with its 2007 campaign, now, France knows the guy, his comedy no more works.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
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« Reply #11 on: April 15, 2009, 11:45:36 AM »

I didn't think about Strauss-Kahn, that's a possibility.

But, if ever we can avoid Besancenot at 2nd turn, I really don't see Sarkozy able to reach it. He got the French people once with its 2007 campaign, now, France knows the guy, his comedy no more works.

Yes, but he remains the leader of the majority party and is adulated by his supporters. Obviously that's not enough to win.
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« Reply #12 on: April 15, 2009, 04:35:52 PM »

Sarkozy still has a 40-something approval, France's largest party both in terms of members and parliamentarians is strongly behind him (emphasis on strongly), he effectively runs the said party personally, and he still has some diehard hacks. That's enough to get into the runoff, though maybe not enough to win.

Besancenot has behind him young revolutionary Trot kooks, a share of unemployed voters, a relatively good popularity, but also a new party that is nowhere near being a major party in terms of GOTV and grassroots organization. That isn't enough to get into the runoff, but maybe it is enough to break the 10% threshold.
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big bad fab
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« Reply #13 on: April 15, 2009, 04:49:56 PM »

Sarkozy would be in the 2nd round without any problem.

Everything would depend on how the PS would pick its candidate.

If it's a proportional vote in one round, Royal is designated (because Aubry is weakened by Hamon and Fabius). And Royal is beaten by Sarkozy in the 2nd round, although by only 51,5 to 48,5.

If it's a 2-round system, Aubry is narrowly designated. And she may be able to beat Sarkozy in a 1970s-style election, traditional left against traditional right. 50,5 - 49,5.

In this second scenario, there may be an alternative: Royal is candidate outside the PS. Then, Bayrou is able to be ahead of both Aubry and Royal.
And Bayrou is able to beat Sarkozy, 51-49: the first election to be won clearly on the left since 1981..., as Bayrou gathers votes even among Mélenchon or Besancenot voters
(I mean "free" followers of Besancenot, those who voted Le Pen now Besancenot and possibly Bayrou when he is "anti-système"; not the revolutionaries).

So, it would of course be more open than in 2007.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
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« Reply #14 on: April 16, 2009, 04:45:11 PM »

Sarkozy would be in the 2nd round without any problem.

Everything would depend on how the PS would pick its candidate.

If it's a proportional vote in one round, Royal is designated (because Aubry is weakened by Hamon and Fabius). And Royal is beaten by Sarkozy in the 2nd round, although by only 51,5 to 48,5.

If it's a 2-round system, Aubry is narrowly designated. And she may be able to beat Sarkozy in a 1970s-style election, traditional left against traditional right. 50,5 - 49,5.

In this second scenario, there may be an alternative: Royal is candidate outside the PS. Then, Bayrou is able to be ahead of both Aubry and Royal.
And Bayrou is able to beat Sarkozy, 51-49: the first election to be won clearly on the left since 1981..., as Bayrou gathers votes even among Mélenchon or Besancenot voters
(I mean "free" followers of Besancenot, those who voted Le Pen now Besancenot and possibly Bayrou when he is "anti-système"; not the revolutionaries).

So, it would of course be more open than in 2007.

I think Strauss-Khan would be the PS candidate, and his competence makes him able to beat Sarko.
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Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]
tsionebreicruoc
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #15 on: April 23, 2009, 06:08:39 AM »
« Edited: April 23, 2009, 05:37:26 PM by Benedict »

I think Strauss-Khan would be the PS candidate, and his competence makes him able to beat Sarko.

I agree with this. I hadn't thought to Strauss-Kahn when I opened this thread but that is the PS only chance to be reach second turn.

So, if ever we avoid Besancenot at 2 turn, to me that would be a Bayrou-Stauss Kahn, Bayrou winning.

Yes, I maintain that in a run with Bayrou and Strauss-Kahn or even with others, Sarkozy wouldn't have the slightest chance to be at a 2 turn. Hell, on what he would do his campaign?? All what he promoted has fell down with the economical crisis, plus, he clearly shew he wasn't the guy he pretended to be, his comedy could just no more work anymore, he could move his arms the fastest he can, it would just no more work.

For Besancenot, today, the things may not be enough bad for that he can reach the 2nd turn, but as I always said, if the economy really crashes down, if he really wants to make win his ideas, if he doesn't fear the power, so, don't be surprised to see him ahead one day.
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