Case-Shiller Index: -19.4% YOY, -2.5% MTM; Consumer Confidence Mostly Flat
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  Case-Shiller Index: -19.4% YOY, -2.5% MTM; Consumer Confidence Mostly Flat
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Sam Spade
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« on: March 31, 2009, 09:20:05 AM »

http://www2.standardandpoors.com/spf/pdf/index/CSHomePrice_Release_033114.pdf

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123850357559373519.html

No Relief From Home-Price Drops

By KERRY E. GRACE

Home prices continued their multiyear slide in January, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller home-price indexes, as 14 of 20 major metropolitan areas posted price declines of more than 10% from a year earlier.

The Sun Belt continues to be hit hardest, and nationally, home prices are at levels similar to late 2003.

"Most of the nation appears to remain on a downward path, with all of the 20 metro areas reporting annual declines, and nine... falling more than 20% in the last year," said David M. Blitzer, chairman of S&P's index committee. Both composite indexes and 13 of the 20 metropolitan areas reported record year-over-year declines.

As of January, the 10-city index is down 30% from its mid-2006 peak and the 20-city is down 29%. The two indexes have fallen every month since August 2006, 30 straight.

The indexes showed prices in 10 major metropolitan areas fell 19.4% in January from a year earlier and 2.5% from December. The drop marks the 10-city index's 16th-straight monthly report of a record decline.

In 20 major metropolitan areas, home prices dropped 19% from the prior year, also a record, and 2.8% from December.

Again, none of the regions could stave off a decline from December to January. Month-to-month decliners were again led by Phoenix, which posted a drop of 5.5%. Las Vegas, which has been a close second behind Phoenix for months, showed a "marginal improvement" in monthly returns, although its results were still negative.

For the 10th straight month, no region was able to avoid a year-over-year decline. Phoenix and Las Vegas were again the worst performers, with drops of 35% and 33%, respectively, from a year earlier. San Francisco again followed, with a decline of 32%. Phoenix is down 49% from its peak in June 2006. Dallas has been the least hurt, down 11% from its peak in June 2007.

Compared with a year earlier, Dallas and Denver again had the best relative performance, with annual declines of 4.9% and 5.1%, respectively.

The data come a week after a government report that sales of previously occupied homes jumped 5.1% in February, the most in five years, driven by foreclosure sales that are sending prices plunging. The median price was down 16% from a year earlier, the second-biggest drop ever.

Tight credit and a still-bleak economic outlook amid high numbers of job cuts have added more stress to U.S. households, meaning the glut of housing remains.

Consumer Confidence Mostly Flat

The Conference Board reported Tuesday that its March consumer confidence index remained relatively unchanged in March, at a reading of 26.0, after hitting an all-time low in February.

February's reading was 25.3, which was revised up slightly from the originally reported 25.0.

Economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires had expected the March index would come in at 27.7.

The present situation index for March fell to 21.5 from February's upwardly revised 22.3, while the expectations index increased to 28.9, from the prior month's 27.3. It was originally reported at 27.5.

"The present situation index suggests that the overall state of the economy remains weak and that more job losses are on the horizon," said Lynn Franco, who leads the private research group's Consumer Research Center.

Apprehension about the outlook for the economy, the labor market and earnings "continues to weigh heavily on consumers' attitudes," Franco said.

Looking ahead, consumers remain "extremely pessimistic" about the short-term future and do not forsee a turnaround in economic conditions over the coming six months, she said.

In the report, consumers calling business conditions "bad" rose to 51.1% of the survey from 50.5% in February, while those calling conditions "good" edged down to 6.8%, from 7% the month before.

The Conference Board also found concerns about hiring have increased, with those calling jobs "hard to get" moving up to 48.7% of respondents, from 46.9% in February. Those who deemed jobs as "plentiful" was unchanged at 4.6%.

The Conference Board's findings are based on a representative sample of 5,000 households. The cut off for responses was March 24.

—Deborah Lynn Blumberg contributed to this article.
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