States where Dole beat McCain

[Ebowed]

This comparison intentionally does not take into account the Perot spoiler factor in '96.

COLORADO
Dole - 45.80%
McCain - 44.71%

NEW MEXICO
Dole - 41.86%
McCain - 41.78%

NEVADA
Dole - 42.91%
McCain - 42.65%

CALIFORNIA
Dole - 38.21%
McCain - 36.91%

HAWAII {Special Award Winner}
Dole - 31.64%
McCain - 26.58%

ILLINOIS
Dole - 36.81%
McCain - 36.76%

VIRGINIA
Dole - 47.10%
McCain - 46.33%

MARYLAND
Dole - 38.27%
McCain - 36.47%

DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA
Dole - 9.34%
McCain - 6.53%

VERMONT
Dole - 31.09%
McCain - 30.45%

States where McCain only barely bested Dole's performance include North Carolina, Oregon, Delaware, and Kansas.

[Ebowed]

States where Bush Sr. ('92) beat McCain

HAWAII
Bush - 36.70%
McCain - 26.58%

DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA
Bush - 9.10%
McCain - 6.53%

McCain beats Bush's showing in Vermont by .03%.

[Landslide Lyndon]

This comparison intentionally does not take into account the Perot spoiler factor in '96.

COLORADO
Dole - 45.80%
McCain - 44.71%

NEW MEXICO
Dole - 41.86%
McCain - 41.78%

NEVADA
Dole - 42.91%
McCain - 42.65%

CALIFORNIA
Dole - 38.21%
McCain - 36.91%

HAWAII {Special Award Winner}
Dole - 31.64%
McCain - 26.58%

ILLINOIS
Dole - 36.81%
McCain - 36.76%

VIRGINIA
Dole - 47.10%
McCain - 46.33%

MARYLAND
Dole - 38.27%
McCain - 36.47%

DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA
Dole - 9.34%
McCain - 6.53%

VERMONT
Dole - 31.09%
McCain - 30.45%

States where McCain only barely bested Dole's performance include North Carolina, Oregon, Delaware, and Kansas.

Perot's presence on the 1996 ballot makes all the more dissapointing McCain's performance in these states.

[Smid]

This comparison intentionally does not take into account the Perot spoiler factor in '96.

COLORADO
Dole - 45.80%
McCain - 44.71%

NEW MEXICO
Dole - 41.86%
McCain - 41.78%

NEVADA
Dole - 42.91%
McCain - 42.65%

CALIFORNIA
Dole - 38.21%
McCain - 36.91%

HAWAII {Special Award Winner}
Dole - 31.64%
McCain - 26.58%

ILLINOIS
Dole - 36.81%
McCain - 36.76%

VIRGINIA
Dole - 47.10%
McCain - 46.33%

MARYLAND
Dole - 38.27%
McCain - 36.47%

DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA
Dole - 9.34%
McCain - 6.53%

VERMONT
Dole - 31.09%
McCain - 30.45%

States where McCain only barely bested Dole's performance include North Carolina, Oregon, Delaware, and Kansas.

Perot's presence on the 1996 ballot makes all the more dissapointing McCain's performance in these states.

Except perhaps for Illinois and Hawaii, given McCain's opponent's homestate advantage.

[Nym90]

The shift towards the Dems in the west is most apparent here. Clinton actually did very well with Hispanics in 1996, but Latino turnout was much lower then, and concerns about Clinton's environmental policies have been replaced by concerns about the GOP's social conservatism and erosion of civil liberties.

In Maryland and Virginia, increased black turnout is a large explanation, as well as of course the strong Dem trend in the DC area in general.