Romney and Huckabee compared to McCain

[So the Heroes Fall]

The only county Romney would win that McCain didn't is Salt Lake.

Huckabee wouldn't carry a single Obama county.

Agree or disagree?

[Fmr. Emperor PiT]

     Option three. McCain really was the best candidate the GOP had. Considering how badly he was ravaged in the campaign, imagine what would have happened to Romney or Huckabee.

[Landslide Lyndon]

     Option three. McCain really was the best candidate the GOP had. Considering how badly he was ravaged in the campaign, imagine what would have happened to Romney or Huckabee.

That was the CW back then. But it can be debatable now.

For all his cons, Romney wouldn't have been drowned by Obama's money machine. He could speak with authority about the economy, even while the Democrats would criticise him for his CEO past.
He would have run a much more organised and disciplined campaign. And of course he wouldn't have botched so badly his vice-presidential choice.

Same with Huckabee. He would have mobilised the religious base, while at the same time he was still a likable figure for everyone else. And his populist rhetoric would allow him to denounce the bailout and Wall Street more forcefully and convincingly than McCain (not to mention of course that he wouldn't be burdened by the vote for it), thus hitting Obama from the left on the economic front.

I think that both of them would have started way more behind than were McCain started his GE campaign last March. But in the end they would have ended with pretty much the same votes like him.     

[RIP Robert H Bork]

Option 4.

[Fmr. Emperor PiT]

     Option three. McCain really was the best candidate the GOP had. Considering how badly he was ravaged in the campaign, imagine what would have happened to Romney or Huckabee.

That was the CW back then. But it can be debatable now.

For all his cons, Romney wouldn't have been drowned by Obama's money machine. He could speak with authority about the economy, even while the Democrats would criticise him for his CEO past.
He would have run a much more organised and disciplined campaign. And of course he wouldn't have botched so badly his vice-presidential choice.

Same with Huckabee. He would have mobilised the religious base, while at the same time he was still a likable figure for everyone else. And his populist rhetoric would allow him to denounce the bailout and Wall Street more forcefully and convincingly than McCain (not to mention of course that he wouldn't be burdened by the vote for it), thus hitting Obama from the left on the economic front.

I think that both of them would have started way more behind than were McCain started his GE campaign last March. But in the end they would have ended with pretty much the same votes like him.     

     I think that Romney would have been obliterated due to appearing too corporate, so to speak (especially after the credit crunch). My opinion of him as improved a lot since then though, so I'm not so sure of that anymore.

     Huckabee's likability could only carry him so far. We saw in the primaries that it carried him to victory in Iowa. Once people learned what his views were like things started to change.

[So the Heroes Fall]

If you disagree please give some county examples.

[Landslide Lyndon]

     Option three. McCain really was the best candidate the GOP had. Considering how badly he was ravaged in the campaign, imagine what would have happened to Romney or Huckabee.

That was the CW back then. But it can be debatable now.

For all his cons, Romney wouldn't have been drowned by Obama's money machine. He could speak with authority about the economy, even while the Democrats would criticise him for his CEO past.
He would have run a much more organised and disciplined campaign. And of course he wouldn't have botched so badly his vice-presidential choice.

Same with Huckabee. He would have mobilised the religious base, while at the same time he was still a likable figure for everyone else. And his populist rhetoric would allow him to denounce the bailout and Wall Street more forcefully and convincingly than McCain (not to mention of course that he wouldn't be burdened by the vote for it), thus hitting Obama from the left on the economic front.

I think that both of them would have started way more behind than were McCain started his GE campaign last March. But in the end they would have ended with pretty much the same votes like him.     

     I think that Romney would have been obliterated due to appearing too corporate, so to speak (especially after the credit crunch). My opinion of him as improved a lot since then though, so I'm not so sure of that anymore.

     Huckabee's likability could only carry him so far. We saw in the primaries that it carried him to victory in Iowa. Once people learned what his views were like things started to change.

I agree with you, but I can't say for sure that Romney's corporatism would turn off the voters worse than McCain's cluelessness and erratic behavior. And the media seemed to be awfully deferent to Romney and his ''economic expertise'' back in September.

Huckabee's problem wasn't his ideas but the fact that he split the conservative, evangelical vote with Thompson in South Carolina. Had he won there, he would have a real shot at the nomination.

[Fmr. Emperor PiT]

     Option three. McCain really was the best candidate the GOP had. Considering how badly he was ravaged in the campaign, imagine what would have happened to Romney or Huckabee.

That was the CW back then. But it can be debatable now.

For all his cons, Romney wouldn't have been drowned by Obama's money machine. He could speak with authority about the economy, even while the Democrats would criticise him for his CEO past.
He would have run a much more organised and disciplined campaign. And of course he wouldn't have botched so badly his vice-presidential choice.

Same with Huckabee. He would have mobilised the religious base, while at the same time he was still a likable figure for everyone else. And his populist rhetoric would allow him to denounce the bailout and Wall Street more forcefully and convincingly than McCain (not to mention of course that he wouldn't be burdened by the vote for it), thus hitting Obama from the left on the economic front.

I think that both of them would have started way more behind than were McCain started his GE campaign last March. But in the end they would have ended with pretty much the same votes like him.     

     I think that Romney would have been obliterated due to appearing too corporate, so to speak (especially after the credit crunch). My opinion of him as improved a lot since then though, so I'm not so sure of that anymore.

     Huckabee's likability could only carry him so far. We saw in the primaries that it carried him to victory in Iowa. Once people learned what his views were like things started to change.

I agree with you, but I can't say for sure that Romney's corporatism would turn off the voters worse than McCain's cluelessness and erratic behavior. And the media seemed to be awfully deferent to Romney and his ''economic expertise'' back in September.

Huckabee's problem wasn't his ideas but the fact that he split the conservative, evangelical vote with Thompson in South Carolina. Had he won there, he would have a real shot at the nomination.

     True, though his numbers had already begun to slide. If Iowa had been on that day instead he probably would not have been able to win it.

[Rob]

The only county Romney would win that McCain didn't is Salt Lake.

He would also have carried Grand, Utah; Summit, Utah; and Teton, Idaho.

Huckabee wouldn't carry a single Obama county.

He probably would have carried some of the rural white southern counties that voted narrowly for Obama, like Jackson, TN.

[Mint]

Agree on Huckabee.

I think if Romney made it that far he'd be a stronger candidate than McCain was though.

[RomneyGekko Situation Hairgel]

Agree on Huckabee.

I think if Romney made it that far he'd be a stronger candidate than McCain was though.

I agree as well.  Romney would have pulled a few upper midwest counties, namely in MI.

[Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Romney would have won some more counties in the Midwest as Flyers just said as well I think he might have pulled in a few in NV and CO since, unlike McCain, Romney would have contested there. Then who knows out of IN, OH, VA, NC, and FL what Romney would gained or lost. Romney would have been better organised and have more money, as well as not being indecisive and erratic on the economy like McCain. He would have had the same problems that he had in the primary with charges of Flip Floping, his religion and his wealth. Another unknown would be the Economic collapse starting aroung Sept 15 or whenever Lehman shut down. If Obama managed to emphasize Romney's wealth, his houses, his corporate orgins and run a populist campaign Romney would have been in trouble. If Romney could resist that and emphasize his history of turning around institutions, his position on health care and the minimum wage(surprisingly anti-business) while turning attention to Obama's bailout vote, Romney could have done well. 

[Ronnie]

Romney would probably win Grand county (and maaaybe Carson City and Washoe county), but other than that, nah.

[Nhoj]

romney would have a chance of winning Plymouth county MA probably not a great chance but one nonetheless and of course some of the other counties mentioned by others already.

[I left.]

Couldn't Huckabee maybe have won some of the Eastern KY or WV counties that Obama just barely won, but where there were huge GOP trends?

Think Huckabee might have caused even more gigantic trends there.

[Grad Students are the Worst]

Huck would have had a shot at Woodruff County, Ark.; Jackson County, Tenn.; maybe a few others.  Might have very well collapsed and even lost those, though.

Probably agree on Romney.

[Torie]

     Option three. McCain really was the best candidate the GOP had. Considering how badly he was ravaged in the campaign, imagine what would have happened to Romney or Huckabee.

That is clearly the case IMO. Mittens was too damaged to profit from the financial collapse even though he was and is good with money matters. The problem is that he is a pathological liar with a tin political ear. I know that sounds harsh, but it is my considered judgment of the man. Huckabee I can't be objective about (I find him clownish and don't agree with him on most issues), but who voted for Obama that would have voted for Huckabee?  Does any such person exist?

[RomneyGekko Situation Hairgel]

romney would have a chance of winning Plymouth county MA probably not a great chance but one nonetheless and of course some of the other counties mentioned by others already.

Forgot about Plymouth.  Not a big Obama margin there and I think Romney COULD have pulled that one off with a half decent MA campaign.  I don't think he would have poured precious resources into getting one county though.  If the GOP ever wanted a shot at MA, Plymouth County would easily be it's best beachead.  If they stopped their religious crap, who knows, they would have a shot at least there.

[Stranger in a strange land]

romney would have a chance of winning Plymouth county MA probably not a great chance but one nonetheless and of course some of the other counties mentioned by others already.

Forgot about Plymouth.  Not a big Obama margin there and I think Romney COULD have pulled that one off with a half decent MA campaign.  I don't think he would have poured precious resources into getting one county though.  If the GOP ever wanted a shot at MA, Plymouth County would easily be it's best beachead.  If they stopped their religious crap, who knows, they would have a shot at least there.

He also might have won Rockingham or Belknap, NH

Couldn't Huckabee maybe have won some of the Eastern KY or WV counties that Obama just barely won, but where there were huge GOP trends?

Think Huckabee might have caused even more gigantic trends there.

Huckabee would have won a few more coal field counties. He probably would have won a few more rural Iowa and Wisconsin counties as well.

[Nym90]

romney would have a chance of winning Plymouth county MA probably not a great chance but one nonetheless and of course some of the other counties mentioned by others already.

Forgot about Plymouth.  Not a big Obama margin there and I think Romney COULD have pulled that one off with a half decent MA campaign.  I don't think he would have poured precious resources into getting one county though.  If the GOP ever wanted a shot at MA, Plymouth County would easily be it's best beachead.  If they stopped their religious crap, who knows, they would have a shot at least there.

He also might have won Rockingham or Belknap, NH

Couldn't Huckabee maybe have won some of the Eastern KY or WV counties that Obama just barely won, but where there were huge GOP trends?

Think Huckabee might have caused even more gigantic trends there.

Huckabee would have won a few more coal field counties. He probably would have won a few more rural Iowa and Wisconsin counties as well.

Iowa and Wisconsin? No way. McCain plays far better in the Midwest than Huckabee.

Huckabee might've won a few more in Arkansas, and possibly a couple in parts of the rural South. He wouldn't have done better in any states other than maybe Arkansas, though, as he would've been crushed even worse in urban areas nationwide. The Northeast approaches 1964 numbers in a lot of places, and he loses a lot more of the West as well. He does worse in the Midwest and slightly better in the rural South, though worse in the urban South.

Romney probably does slightly better in the rural interior West and maybe in urban New England, but not enough to actually win any counties other than as you say Salt Lake, and maybe a few other close Western counties. He does a lot worse than McCain in the South especially and to a lesser extent the Midwest (yes, even in Michigan....his economic positions don't exactly play well here).

[Nym90]

My predictions for what the Obama-Huckabee map would've looked like:



Georgia is the closest state.

For Obama vs. Romney:



The closest state is Montana.

[Magic 8-Ball]

     Option three. McCain really was the best candidate the GOP had. Considering how badly he was ravaged in the campaign, imagine what would have happened to Romney or Huckabee.

That is clearly the case IMO. Mittens was too damaged to profit from the financial collapse even though he was and is good with money matters. The problem is that he is a pathological liar with a tin political ear. I know that sounds harsh, but it is my considered judgment of the man. Huckabee I can't be objective about (I find him clownish and don't agree with him on most issues), but who voted for Obama that would have voted for Huckabee?  Does any such person exist?

This is a good summation of how I feel about the two of them.  I don't like politicians and their vacillating opinions in general, but Romney does it without compunction.

With Huckabee, I will openly admit that I don't want a member of the clergy as president.  I respect ministers that feed the poor and all that, but I want my president to give science a fair shake.  In a world where China is led by engineers, I want American researchers to be unshackled as they tackle bioengineering, especially since we never know where science will lead us.

To answer the question, McCain was - by far - the most electable Republican last year.  Had Huckabee or Romney led the way, the effect further down the ballot would have been even worse.

[nclib]

Not certain about the specific counties, but I certainly agree with below:

To answer the question, McCain was - by far - the most electable Republican last year.  Had Huckabee or Romney led the way, the effect further down the ballot would have been even worse.

Keep in mind that GOP House and Senate candidates on average did worse than McCain. The only GOP Senate candidate who ran over 10 points higher than McCain was Susan Collins.

[Vepres]

Romney would have won some counties in the north east and upper mid-west while Huckabee would have won more counties in the deep south.

As for the maps, I think they would play out like this:

Huckabee vs. Obama




Romney vs. Obama



Arizona is gray because I think it would be extremely close, and one cannot know how the state would have behaved if McCain wasn't on the ticket (except that it would be closer).

[Nym90]

Romney's economic policies wouldn't exactly have endeared him to Ohio....no way he carries it in 2008.