FDU Says Christie Up By 9

[Lunar]

people from NJ, they have magical powers.

[Keystone Phil]

You are clueless, like you are with everything else.

Lock.

LOL

I'm clueless on everything. Wow. Amazing how I got the reputation for being politically clueless thanks to two (or maybe three) incorrect political predictions that were considered hackish. Now I'm apparently clueless because of a completely non-hackish prediction in a state that is known for sticking it to the GOP. Amazing.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

They were NEVER at 33% in a poll, and no they have never had approval ratings this low.

Blatantly false.

From Corzine's own Wiki page:

An April 26, 2006, polls from Quinnipiac University Polling Institute showed Corzine at a 35% approval with a 42% disapproval

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jon_Corzine#Governor

 

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It's April, dude. Get real. Once they know he was a Bush appointee and an evil Republican, things will change. Your state falls for the most ridiculous rhetoric.

42% disapprove? Corzine wins this race 56-43 or somewhere in that range. Only 33% may approve, but the other 20% will vote for him just because he has a (D) next to his name....

[Rowan]

The poll has him at 40/49 in approval, and it keeps getting lower.

[Keystone Phil]

The poll has him at 40/49 in approval, and it keeps getting lower.

My friend, you don't even have a majority of those polled disapproving.

Listen, if you want to argue that Christie can win and he's slightly favored, fine. I disagree but whatever. However, if you argue that Christie is a lock...well...your head is in your ass.

[Rowan]

The poll has him at 40/49 in approval, and it keeps getting lower.

My friend, you don't even have a majority of those polled disapproving.

Listen, if you want to argue that Christie can win and he's slightly favored, fine. I disagree but whatever. However, if you argue that Christie is a lock...well...your head is in your ass.

Did I say lock? No, I said a incumbent Democrat in New Jersey has never been in this bad of shape, so to compare it to previous elections is just ridiculous.

[Keystone Phil]

Did I say lock? No, I said a incumbent Democrat in New Jersey has never been in this bad of shape, so to compare it to previous elections is just ridiculous.

Lautenberg's ratings were in the low 40s/high 30s last year.

[Rowan]

Did I say lock? No, I said a incumbent Democrat in New Jersey has never been in this bad of shape, so to compare it to previous elections is just ridiculous.

Lautenberg's ratings were in the low 40s/high 30s last year.

I just looked at Pollster. He was never under 45% and never trailed in a poll.

[Keystone Phil]

Did I say lock? No, I said a incumbent Democrat in New Jersey has never been in this bad of shape, so to compare it to previous elections is just ridiculous.

Lautenberg's ratings were in the low 40s/high 30s last year.

I just looked at Pollster. He was never under 45% and never trailed in a poll.

Lautenberg at 43% approval rating - http://www.surveyusa.com/100USSenators0805SortedbyState.htm

By the way, I'm sure Corzine trailed at some point in 2005 and his approval rating wasn't hot then either.

[Rowan]

Did I say lock? No, I said a incumbent Democrat in New Jersey has never been in this bad of shape, so to compare it to previous elections is just ridiculous.

Lautenberg's ratings were in the low 40s/high 30s last year.

I just looked at Pollster. He was never under 45% and never trailed in a poll.

Lautenberg at 43% approval rating - http://www.surveyusa.com/100USSenators0805SortedbyState.htm

By the way, I'm sure Corzine trailed at some point in 2005 and his approval rating wasn't hot then either.

I was talking about his percentage in a poll, not an approval rating(also, that is 2005, irrelevant to what I am talking about).

No Corzine did not trail. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Congressional/NJ_Gov_05.html

[Keystone Phil]

I was talking about his percentage in a poll, not an approval rating

...

What?

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How? He was an incumbent in a statewide office with mediocre ratings (as I recall) who beat his opponent by nine points.

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Fair enough though I thought Forrester lead in a few polls early on.

[Rowan]

I was talking about his percentage in a poll, not an approval rating

...

What?

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How? He was an incumbent in a statewide office with mediocre ratings (as I recall) who beat his opponent by nine points.

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Fair enough though I thought Forrester lead in a few polls early on.

First, I was talking about head to head matchups against Zimmer in 2008 for Lautenberg, he was never under 45% and never trailed.

Lautenberg didn't have an election in 2005 so his approval ratings for that year don't really mean much. His approval ratings for 2008 would be a better barometer.

[Keystone Phil]

First, I was talking about head to head matchups against Zimmer in 2008 for Lautenberg, he was never under 45% and never trailed.

Ok but you also mentioned approval ratings for Democratic incumbents. Lautenberg's ratings were low.

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Yeah, thanks. I was talking about Corzine in 2005.

[Rowan]

First, I was talking about head to head matchups against Zimmer in 2008 for Lautenberg, he was never under 45% and never trailed.

Ok but you also mentioned approval ratings for Democratic incumbents. Lautenberg's ratings were low.

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Yeah, thanks. I was talking about Corzine in 2005.

In an election year.....

2005 wasn't an election year for Lautenberg, so his approval ratings don't matter.

[Keystone Phil]

First, I was talking about head to head matchups against Zimmer in 2008 for Lautenberg, he was never under 45% and never trailed.

Ok but you also mentioned approval ratings for Democratic incumbents. Lautenberg's ratings were low.

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Yeah, thanks. I was talking about Corzine in 2005.

In an election year.....

2005 wasn't an election year for Lautenberg, so his approval ratings don't matter.

44% rating in 2008 - http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1299.xml?ReleaseID=1214

[Rowan]

First, I was talking about head to head matchups against Zimmer in 2008 for Lautenberg, he was never under 45% and never trailed.

Ok but you also mentioned approval ratings for Democratic incumbents. Lautenberg's ratings were low.

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Yeah, thanks. I was talking about Corzine in 2005.

In an election year.....

2005 wasn't an election year for Lautenberg, so his approval ratings don't matter.

44% rating in 2008 - http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1299.xml?ReleaseID=1214

It's 44-38, +6, which isn't a bad approval. Corzine's is -10 or worse depending on which poll you look at.

[Keystone Phil]

First, I was talking about head to head matchups against Zimmer in 2008 for Lautenberg, he was never under 45% and never trailed.

Ok but you also mentioned approval ratings for Democratic incumbents. Lautenberg's ratings were low.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Yeah, thanks. I was talking about Corzine in 2005.

In an election year.....

2005 wasn't an election year for Lautenberg, so his approval ratings don't matter.

44% rating in 2008 - http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1299.xml?ReleaseID=1214

It's 44-38, +6, which isn't a bad approval. Corzine's is -10 or worse depending on which poll you look at.

Ok but it was still below 45%.

Listen, whatever the case, I want you to understand that I hope I'm wrong about this. It's just that NJ has teased us for far too long.

[Rowan]

New Radio Ad for Christie. "Overtaxed"

http://christiefornj.com/blog/2009/04/08/new-radio-ad-overtaxed/

[Lunar]

did you create your own tinyurl for that?

[Rowan]

did you create your own tinyurl for that?

Oops, copied it off Christie's Twitter. Didn't realize it was a tinyurl.

[Lunar]

haha, I was just amused by that


after listening to that, that is the worst radio ad I've ever heard in my entire life, out of probably hundreds.  Wins the award for the worst background music-beat I've ever heard behind dialogue regardless of ad format.


I could be biased because the fifth time I listened to the ad (just to figure out wtf it's talking about, god that's an awful ad), I realized he was calling for a two thirds majority to pass tax increases.   Regardless of your opinion on taxes, California is a disgusting model to follow for such measures

[Rowan]

The woman's voice is awful too. I think the point of the ad is to show that the Corzine administration doesn't think New Jerseyans are overtaxed but Christie does.

[Lunar]

it's also the type of ad you run in the last week before the election, not your first ad overall.  It's vague and confusing dialogue between someone  in Corzine's administration instead of Corzine himself, giving Corzine ample time to adjust his own position on the issue.  Christie's own comments on the issue are moderately clear, if it were an interview, but it's not concise and impactive enough for a radio ad.  I have no idea what's going on here in the Christie camp but I'm unimpressed.



I don't know who the hell is managing Christie's campaign, but after observing this opening salvo, I'm upping Corzine's chances at reelection

[Rowan]

it's also the type of ad you run in the last week before the election, not your first ad overall.  It's vague and confusing dialogue between someone  in Corzine's administration instead of Corzine himself, giving Corzine ample time to adjust his own position on the issue.  Christie's own comments on the issue are moderately clear, if it were an interview, but it's not concise and impactive enough for a radio ad.  I have no idea what's going on here in the Christie camp but I'm unimpressed.



I don't know who the hell is managing Christie's campaign, but after observing this opening salvo, I'm upping Corzine's chances at reelection

It was his second ad, but still point taken. His campaign manager is Bill Stepien, his Wiki entry:

Bill Stepien (born 1977) is currently working for Chris Christie's New Jersey gubernatorial campaign. Previous to that, he was a Regional Campaign Manager for Senator John S. McCain's presidential campaign before serving as National Field Director.

Stepien began his political career working on Anthony Bucco's 1997 State Senate campaign, and on Bob Franks' 2000 U.S. Senate race. He worked for Public Opinion Strategies and DuHaime Communications before managing Bill Baroni's 2003 bid for New Jersey State Assembly -- the only Republican to oust a Democratic incumbent that year, and one of PoliticsNJ.com's Best Campaigns of the Year.

Stepien served as Political Director of the 2004 Bush/Cheney campaign in New Hampshire, and as Director of the Republican National Committee's 72-Hour Campaign in 2005 and 2006. He is a Rutgers University graduate. He played on the Rutgers Hockey team with Giuliani campaign manager Michael DuHaime.

[DownWithTheLeft]

Tony Bucco, Bill Baroni, and Franks near tremendous upset win?  The campaign manager seems pretty solid