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Author Topic: What was your final map?  (Read 11695 times)
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change08
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« on: April 08, 2009, 03:11:46 pm »
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How did you expect things to go on November 4th? Discuss with maps.


My final map was this:


Obama - 311 EV
McCain -227 EV

I had Indiana going for McCain all the way through the campaign and nearly every polls had it at about McCain +4. I'd had North Carolina flipping all the way through the campaign, but I thought it would go narrowly to McCain in the end as I thought he had the momentum there in the last week. The same story with Florida.
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« Reply #1 on: April 08, 2009, 03:40:23 pm »
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You can still see many people's final predictions in the relevant section of the site. Or even in the little icons on the left.
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Here's mine - the confidence map, of which I've more reason to be proud than the percentages/winners one.

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« Reply #2 on: April 08, 2009, 03:43:11 pm »
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« Reply #3 on: April 09, 2009, 12:45:17 am »
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Indiana was a surprise.
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« Reply #4 on: April 09, 2009, 09:29:23 am »
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Not bad, but not great. My percentages map did a lot worse. (I predicted both Ohio and North Carolina to go Republican.)
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« Reply #5 on: April 09, 2009, 01:02:39 pm »
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Obama: 364
McCain: 174
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« Reply #6 on: April 09, 2009, 01:25:08 pm »
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Missed all three of the closest (MO, IN, NC)

Percentages were great tho, I only missed KY (which I thought would be McCain >60%) and Oklahoma (thought would be McCain >70%)
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« Reply #7 on: April 09, 2009, 02:21:33 pm »
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Was off on Missouri and NE-2

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« Reply #8 on: April 09, 2009, 03:43:58 pm »
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I'm pretty sure I had this...



Obama - 291
McCain - 247


Missed OH, FL, NC, IN and NE 2
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« Reply #9 on: April 09, 2009, 04:06:19 pm »
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I'll easily admit, I thought McCain was going to win, even on Election Day.

McCain-277
Obama-261
I missed Colorado, NE2, Pennyslvania, Ohio, Indiana, North Carolina, and Florida.

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« Reply #10 on: April 09, 2009, 06:29:39 pm »
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What I got wrong: NE2, Montana (that was my prediction for a big upset of the night, too bad I didn't go with IN), Indiana and Missouri.

My EV total was off by 4. On the bright side of things I only got 6 percentages wrong including the 4 mistakes mentioned earlier. The two in addition I got wrong: Alabama and Idaho.
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« Reply #11 on: April 11, 2009, 11:34:48 am »
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Like many others, I whiffed Indiana, Missouri and NE-02 on the predictions.
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« Reply #12 on: April 11, 2009, 12:12:01 pm »
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I got Indiana and NE-02 wrong. I got a small dose of Jsojourner's pessimism at the last moment.
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« Reply #13 on: April 11, 2009, 02:31:17 pm »
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I'll easily admit, I thought McCain was going to win, even on Election Day.

McCain-277
Obama-261
I missed Colorado, NE2, Pennyslvania, Ohio, Indiana, North Carolina, and Florida.



Obama wins VA but not PA?
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change08
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« Reply #14 on: April 11, 2009, 02:47:22 pm »
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I'll easily admit, I thought McCain was going to win, even on Election Day.

McCain-277
Obama-261
I missed Colorado, NE2, Pennyslvania, Ohio, Indiana, North Carolina, and Florida.



Obama wins VA but not PA?

Obama was doing really well in VA and McCain was campaigning in PA practically everyday.
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« Reply #15 on: April 11, 2009, 04:51:18 pm »
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I'll easily admit, I thought McCain was going to win, even on Election Day.

McCain-277
Obama-261
I missed Colorado, NE2, Pennyslvania, Ohio, Indiana, North Carolina, and Florida.



Obama wins VA but not PA?

Obama was doing really well in VA and McCain was campaigning in PA practically everyday.

Exactly what I was going to say. It was a longshot, I know.
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« Reply #16 on: April 11, 2009, 06:52:37 pm »
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Obama: 338
McCain: 200

Confidence

Obama: 264
McCain: 174
Toss: 100
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ShadowOfTheWave
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« Reply #17 on: April 12, 2009, 02:30:08 am »
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I had Missouri going for Obama, and Indiana going for McCain.
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« Reply #18 on: April 12, 2009, 02:39:47 am »
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My final map was this(not the one in my prediction):
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« Reply #19 on: April 27, 2009, 07:39:47 am »
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I thought that Montana would go for Obama, and switched Missouri and North Carolina. I got NE-02 and Indiana right, and thought that Florida, Georgia, and Ohio would be closer than they were.

I knew that Obama had the election won once McCain made his quixotic effort to win over Pennsylvania after seeing similar efforts prove counterproductive in Michigan (which is much like Pennsylvania in its politics), Minnesota, and Wisconsin.

In any event McCain was close to winning until the real estate and financial bubbles imploded on his campaign. 
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« Reply #20 on: May 12, 2009, 08:48:12 pm »
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Confidence: (green = tossup)


« Last Edit: May 19, 2009, 02:58:59 pm by catmusic »Logged



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« Reply #21 on: May 13, 2009, 09:56:12 am »
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Prediction Map:



Confidence Map:

« Last Edit: June 17, 2009, 05:16:07 pm by SayNoToRomney »Logged

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« Reply #22 on: June 07, 2009, 09:48:36 pm »
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Confidence Map:
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« Reply #23 on: June 07, 2009, 10:04:50 pm »
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Hey, I was desperate
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« Reply #24 on: June 07, 2009, 11:50:22 pm »
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I thought it was going to be a blowout:



Dem: 405
Rep: 133

I kind of expected all of the GOP's negative campaigning to backfire on them. I was kind of right but sort of wrong at the same time.
« Last Edit: June 07, 2009, 11:52:06 pm by Mechaman »Logged

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