I wasn't on the forum at the time, but this was about what I was thinking at the time:
- I thought McCain would over perform (I was hoping he'd pull off an upset, though knew it was unlikely), so MO, IN, FL, MT, ND, and FL were all McCain wins.
- I did believe Obama would still win Iowa, though I thought it would be surprisingly close.
- NE-02 was a complete surprise.
- OH was close enough that the over performance of McCain I expected would put it in his column
- I thought the small government tendencies of NV would allow McCain to pull off a victory there.
- I thought McCain's history in NH would give him an edge.
