why are democrats so arrogant?

[Lief 🗽]

Okay, in defense of Democrats, statistically and historically, Obama is the favorite to win the 2012 election. I don't know how you could disagree with that. Does that make him a lock? No. But, of all the possibilities, his re-election victory is the most likely.

[Lief 🗽]

Okay, in defense of Democrats, statistically and historically, Obama is the favorite to win the 2012 election. I don't know how you could disagree with that. Does that make him a lock? No. But, of all the possibilities, his re-election victory is the most likely.

How so? Last both the Democratic Party and Republican Party had back to back 8 year presidents the Democratic Party won the next election and got killed in the next election.

1961-1969(Democratic Party had the Oval Office), 1969-1977(Republicans had Oval office), 1977-1981(Carter held office) and the 1980 election Republicans won in landslide.

Kinda look like something?
1993-2001(Bill Clinton), 2001-2009(George Bush, Jr), 2009-2013(Obama), 2012 election landslide for Republicans.

It fits.

Most Presidents win re-election if they run for it. Losing re-election is rare, as the power of incumbency is very strong.

[Lief 🗽]

Well, in the 20th century, the following lost re-election:

Taft: Third party challenge split the vote, though he was also somewhat unpopular.
Hoover: Worst economic crisis in our nation's history occurred.
Ford: Doesn't really count, as he had never been elected.
Carter: Poor economy, foreign affairs failures, Reagan was a much better campaigner.
Bush: Poor economy, third party splitting the vote, Clinton was a much better campaigner.

So, I think for Obama to lose, the economy would have to stay very bad, and I just don't think that's likely. It may still be going poorly by the 2010 midterms, but by 2012 it'll have been five years since the recession started. Things should at least have started to get better by then.