How far off was your prediction map?
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  How far off was your prediction map?
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Author Topic: How far off was your prediction map?  (Read 5652 times)
the artist formerly known as catmusic
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« on: May 26, 2009, 10:42:34 PM »

Mine was 2 states off. ND and MO. I also predicted AZ being a bigger win for MicCain than it was.
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Smash255
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« Reply #1 on: May 27, 2009, 12:41:16 AM »

Missed Missouri, got everything else right.
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Magic 8-Ball
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« Reply #2 on: May 27, 2009, 12:46:13 AM »



Missed Indiana and Nebraska-2.  Getting Missouri right was basically luck.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #3 on: May 27, 2009, 12:50:39 AM »



Missed Indiana and Nebraska-2.  Getting Missouri right was basically luck.

So did I.
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phk
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« Reply #4 on: May 27, 2009, 12:52:20 AM »

Missed Indiana and Nebraska-2.  Getting Missouri right was basically luck.
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Nym90
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« Reply #5 on: May 27, 2009, 01:09:26 AM »

Missed Indiana and Nebraska-2.  Getting Missouri right was basically luck.

Same here. Seems to have been a popular map.
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Joe Republic
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« Reply #6 on: May 27, 2009, 01:19:32 AM »



I only got MO, IN and NE-2 wrong.  Even now looking at it, I still can't quite believe that in reality IN flipped while MO didn't.

My percentages were wrong in a lot of cases but I wouldn't say I was too far off-course.
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Ebowed
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« Reply #7 on: May 27, 2009, 01:33:56 AM »
« Edited: May 27, 2009, 01:38:29 AM by Ebowed »

States:
Missouri for Obama
NE-2 for McCain

Percentages:
NE >60 for McCain
MT >50 for McCain
CA >50 for Obama
CT >50 for Obama
IN >50 for Obama
NC >50 for Obama
ME-1 >50 for Obama
HI >60 for Obama
GA >40 for McCain
DC >80 for Obama

https://uselectionatlas.org/PRED/PRESIDENT/2008/pred.php?action=indpred&memb_id=9363
86.6% accuracy (much better than my stab at predictions in 2006)
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Magic 8-Ball
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« Reply #8 on: May 27, 2009, 01:47:19 AM »



I only got MO, IN and NE-2 wrong.  Even now looking at it, I still can't quite believe that in reality IN flipped while MO didn't.

My percentages were wrong in a lot of cases but I wouldn't say I was too far off-course.

Yeah, Indiana seemed to come out of nowhere, though i suppose that the NW would be in the Chicagoland market, and polls from 2007 did show generic Dem beating generic Rep.  I openly admit that Nebraska wasn't on my radar.
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Associate Justice PiT
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« Reply #9 on: May 27, 2009, 03:53:24 AM »



I only got MO, IN and NE-2 wrong.  Even now looking at it, I still can't quite believe that in reality IN flipped while MO didn't.

My percentages were wrong in a lot of cases but I wouldn't say I was too far off-course.

     My map was the same (at least for states).
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #10 on: June 02, 2009, 02:29:20 PM »
« Edited: June 02, 2009, 02:36:06 PM by pbrower2a »



I got Missouri, Montana, and North Carolina wrong, but got Indiana (I live in Michigan and know about the Indiana economy) and NE-02 right (Omaha might as well be in Iowa). I thought that Nevada would be a squeaker, and it wasn't, and that a bunch of southern states would be much closer than they were (GA, AR, KY, LA).
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Meeker
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« Reply #11 on: June 02, 2009, 02:57:12 PM »

Missed Missouri and Indiana. I'm pretty sure I got NE-02 but I don't recall entirely.
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Kaine for Senate '18
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« Reply #12 on: June 02, 2009, 06:02:56 PM »

I missed 3 states (IN, MO, NC), and 1 CD (NE-02).
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Frozen Sky Ever Why
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« Reply #13 on: June 02, 2009, 06:49:33 PM »

I had MO and IN switched. Obama had a solid lead in MO in the last, so when the last poll showed it tied, I thought it would break slightly towards Obama.

Also, can someone explain why everyone considers McCain a 'perfect' Rep for Missouri? Remember, this is the state that 49% voted against stem cell research. It seems more Bush Republican.
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Kaine for Senate '18
benconstine
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« Reply #14 on: June 02, 2009, 07:05:54 PM »

Also, can someone explain why everyone considers McCain a 'perfect' Rep for Missouri? Remember, this is the state that 49% voted against stem cell research. It seems more Bush Republican.

And that McCain only won by 3,903 votes.
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Erc
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« Reply #15 on: June 02, 2009, 09:31:56 PM »

I missed NC & IN, and NE-2 of course.  If I had changed anything, it would have been MO.
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