Kerry up by 1.5%

[Shira]

On 10/7/2004 all pollsters will already have their post-debate numbers.
In order to evaluate the impact of the debate, we have to compare this number with the last pre-debate poll of the same polling company.
Prediction: The average difference of Kerry’s numbers between 9/30 and 10/7 will be 1.5% up.

[A18]

52% Bush
46% Kerry

[Shira]

52% Bush
46% Kerry

Is this forum your full-time job?

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

I predict a tie

[J. J.]

Bush 52%

Kerry 47%

[© tweed]

Philip and JJ,

Why do you think Bush will be doing better in the polls than he did before the debate?

[Shira]

Bush 52%

Kerry 47%

There could be up to 7% differences between the polling firms. I am talking about the difference between two dates of the same polling firm. My prediction is that Kerry will go up by 1.5% whether it will be from 45% to 46.5% or from 48% to 49.5% etc.

[J. J.]

I could buy a 1.5 point increase nationally; I believe there will be one.  I'm expecting a Bush average lead, accross the polls of 3-5 point; 4-5 points if you remove Zogby.

[Democratic Hawk]

Philip and JJ,

Why do you think Bush will be doing better in the polls than he did before the debate?

I think even I would be amused to see the rationale behind that one.

Dave

[J. J.]

I'm not looking at the undecided votes.