Today's Rasmussen Polls...No trend to Kerry

[Pollwatch99]

"These results are based upon a survey of 3,000 Likely Voters conducted Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday night. As a result, just over one-third of the interviews were conducted following Thursday night's Presidential Debate. Results from last night's sample were similar to the preceding nights. Monday's update will be the first based entirely upon post-debate interviews"

Note the key; Friday's sample was similar to preceeding nights.

Bush 49% Kerry 46%; consistent with normal results for Rasmussen.

[ATFFL]

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Net gain for Kerry of 1%.  My question is how weighted is that 1%?  Is i 1% unweighted, or only after applying the hardweight?

As always, it is a bot poll and should be taken with a shaker of salt.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Presidential_Tracking_Poll.htm

I am sure Vorlon will be by later with his usual updating of the daily sample.


(I had posted a thread simultaneous to this one with that as the opening post.  I deleted it and moved it here. )

[Reds4]

If it's true there will only be a net gain of 1% for Kerry that would definitely be good news for Bush, my guess is it will be a little more than 1%, but who knows. Vorlon, do you have any idea exactly what last nights sample came out to be? I think you had said the sample rolling off today was a pro-Bush sample and that should help Kerry, so Bush must have done pretty well last night if I have that straight.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Bush had an exceptionally good night on Thursday, so it will be interesting to see the results after this sample falls off on Monday.

Also, Rasmussen is so heavily weighted that it might hide underlying trends in the landscape, just like it "hid" a lot of Bush's bounce following his convention.

[muon2]

I thought the following part was interesting:

"October 2, 2004--A Rasmussen Reports survey of 1,000 Likely Voters conducted Friday night found that 52% believe John Kerry "won" Thursday night's debate. Forty percent (40%) disagree and think George Bush emerged victorious.

Six percent (6%) of voters say the debate changed their mind about how they will vote this November. This includes 3% who now say they will vote for Kerry, 2% for Bush, and 1% who are now undecided."

Given the clear sense of victory in the debate for Kerry, I would have expected a greater fraction of those who switched to move in his direction.

[Giant Saguaro]

An overall gain of 1% in the Rasmussen for Kerry and we'll see what their poll looks like by the middle of the week. Kind of corresponds to the gain of 1% or so in the Gallup internals on issues. Not much, for sure so far.

I probably expected a bounce too, but one thing I think I see is that anytime Kerry gets out there and gives a speech on national TV or like this in a debate it really, really invigorates Republicans. Interesting Bush picks up 2% in the Rasmussen.

[Sam Spade]

I might warn those Kerry supporters looking for great news tomorrow that a good Kerry sample will roll off tomorrow.

As Vorlon posted yesterday, today's sample rolling off was an extremely strong Bush sample, tomorrow's will be one that showed Kerry tied.  There could be a gain by Kerry, but most likely it will probably be a gain for Bush.

[Sam Spade]

A far as I can figure, the number to the tenths of the sample must have been roughly around Bush 48.8, Kerry 46.2, fwiw.

[The Vorlon]

Bush won the Friday sample by:

Bush 49.7
Kerry 45.1

This was post-weighting

As is typical for Rasmussen, his Friday sample contained more Democrats than is typical on other days of the week, so his "raw" sample was quite a bit closer

This is what the last bunch of samples have looked like at the weighted level.

Tomorrow a dem-heavy Kerry freindly sample drops... the 'Bot result might be a bit of a surprise tomorrow..

As usual, the typical Rasmussen caveats apply..

No waranty expressed or implied, for entertainment purposes only, past performance is no guarantee of future returns, unwinding tracking polls involves risk, consult your financial professional before investing, please read the prospectus carefully... If symptoms persist, see your doctor.  Simply blood test may be needed to check for liver problems.  Small children may be injured by air bags, always use a car seat for kids under 60 lbs...Must be adult 18 years or over to call see dealer for details.  Not all buyers will qualify for this low rate - void where prohibited....



Note! if you take 3 daily samples and average them, they do NOT equal the 3 day Rasmussen published results because the weighting factors are a bit different each day as party ID bounces around from sample to sample

Bush had an exceptionally good night on Thursday, so it will be interesting to see the results after this sample falls off on Monday.

Also, Rasmussen is so heavily weighted that it might hide underlying trends in the landscape, just like it "hid" a lot of Bush's bounce following his convention.

A strong Kerry sample from Wednesday Night (Kerry +0.2% weighted) drops for the Sunday morning release, so Bush will show a blip upward,

A strong Bush sample (Bush +6.6 weighted) from Thursday drops so on the Monday result Bush will thus drop. (or more correctly, the sample that drops was actually pretty normal for Bush, but weak for Kerry, so Bush will stay about the same, but Kerry will rise)

If Bush gets about 49.5% or so tonight he might actually hit 50% for the three day roll, which would be a first for any candidate.

Rasmussen's party ID in his samples bounces around a ton, he weights the %^%$ out of things to hide it, but he has a pretty substantial "day of the week" effect.

I am deeply skeptical generically, and more so on weekends with "the bot"

[Friar]

Holy smokes guys!!!

You can't expect to see any gains within 2-3 days after the debate.

I can't say that where there will be or will be no positive trend for Kerry. But if there is some, it won't be as result of the debate performance but rather as a result of the spin game during the days following the debate.

Give it a week. People will read the news, will watch the sunday talk shows, will talk to their friends and coworkers...

We'll know if there is a trend just before the second debate.

I think there might be a 1 to 2 points gain for Kerry, which means 3 to 4 points Bush advantage in the polls.

If the second debate is anything like the first one, I think Bush supporters need to start worry.

[12th Doctor]

Holy smokes guys!!!

You can't expect to see any gains within 2-3 days after the debate.

I can't say that where there will be or will be no positive trend for Kerry. But if there is some, it won't be as result of the debate performance but rather as a result of the spin game during the days following the debate.

Give it a week. People will read the news, will watch the sunday talk shows, will talk to their friends and coworkers...

We'll know if there is a trend just before the second debate.

I think there might be a 1 to 2 points gain for Kerry, which means 3 to 4 points Bush advantage in the polls.

If the second debate is anything like the first one, I think Bush supporters need to start worry.

I disagree.  If Kerry is going to get any advantage, it is going to be now.  Soon the Bush Team will start talking about everything that he got wrong.  There isn't much the Kerry people can do in return, because, Bush just didn't say much.

Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm.  Maybe there is something to that.

[JNB]

   Domestic issues are not a strong suit for Mr. Bush, and this is where Bush had to defend himself on issues such as job outsourcing, and the price of medical care.