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Author Topic: Confederacy wins war  (Read 12132 times)
Antonio V
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« on: April 15, 2009, 11:33:34 am »
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I think I'm unable to write a detailed timelines as some users did. However, I adore political what-ifs and I want to write some short timelines. Tell me what do you think about it.

First timeline : No J. F. Kennedy assassination

Kennedy's Dallas trip happens normally, no assassination attempt. XXIVth Amendment is ratified as it did in real life. Southern states violently oppose it but it was useless. Barry Goldwater clinches the republican nomination and campaigns for states rights and against welfare state. At july, the race appears to be close but gradually Kennedy gaigns more and more ground in traditional repulican liberal states, where many voters feared Goldwater. Kennedy paints Goldwater as a dangerous far-rightist and finally wins comfortably.



Kennedy : 53%, 382 E.V.
Goldwater : 46%, 156 E.V.


During his second term, Kennedy and his VP Johnson focus on the Great Society program, with the creation of medicare and medicaid. However, the situation in Vietnam goes worse and worse, and anti-war feeling becomes strong in the party. Vice-President Johnson clinches the nomination and promits peace in Vietnam as soon as possible, managing to rally the party. However, governor George Wallace decides to run as an independent, and proves to be highly popular in the South. Richard Nixon runs a second time as a republican, hardly challenging Johnson. Rapidly, Wallace appears to have a strong support in the South and the polls show him at about 20%. Few months before the election, Johnson appears to be beaten by Nixon, but there was a high risk of not being electoral majority. Johnson campaigns energically, strongly defending the results of the Kennedy administration with the Civil Rights.



Johnson : 41%, 284 E.V.
Nixon : 38%, 163 E.V.
Wallace : 20%, 91 E.V.


Johnson managed to get the majority of EV, winning Ohio by 0,2 pts. Wallace's score showed the strength of the Southerner movement.
Gradually, Johnson manages to end Vietnam War. However, he appears to be unable to unify his party, and gradually loses the endorsement of militants. In year 1971, Johnson's opposition to the reform of primaries system was heavily criticized. Robert Kennedy, with the endorsement of his brother and some liberals, decided to challenge Johnson during primaries. He got 75% of the votes but unpledged delegates chose Johnson. Kennedy also decided to run as a third-party candidate, that terribly worried Johnson and his supporters. On the Republican side, Nelson Rockefeller clinched the nomination, without a serious opponent. However, during a speech in California, Robert Kennedy was shot by a Palestinian. His supporters were divided on their endorsement, and although a majority endorsed Johnson, many of them chose Rockefeller. In a similar situation, Johnson could not win. However, some traditionnal democraticc southern states "forgave" Johnson for the the Civil Rights Act, rather to vote for a liberal republican.



Rockefeller : 54%, 370 E.V.
Johnson : 45%, 168 E.V.


Rockefeller's term was hard : in 1973, he faced the beginning of the economical crisis. Plus, some republican personalities were accused to corruption, of whom Richard Nixon. Despite he remained relatively popular, he refused to run for re-election. Primaries in both sides were very bustling. After the reform of primaries system, the democratic candidates should run in every primary. The main candidates were the former vice-president Hubert Humphrey, the southerner James Carter, and the ultraprogressive George McGovern. Carter was able to rally southern states, but nowhere else. The most expexted candidate was Humphrey, but his weak popular support caused his heavy defeat in several primaries. Finally, McGovern clinched the nomination, but many people thought it was the worse choice of democrats. On the republican side, California governor Ronald Reagan easily beat his opponents and clinched the nomination. The election appeared to be very close, with two candidates who were both unpopular and radical. But gradually, Reagan, with a strong campaign, managed to be seen as a competent and consensual candidate, whereas McGovern did several gaffes. Finally, Reagan destroyed McGovern during the debates and won by a lanslide.



Reagan : 53%, 442 E.V.
McGovern : 42%, 96 E.V.


Despite Reagan's energy, the economical situation gets worse and worse. Many republican leaders heavily criticize his policies and refuse to endorse him, first of them former president Rockefeller. During the Democratic primaries, senator Edward Kennedy easily clinches the nomination. Running against Reaganomics and for liberal economical policies, he appears to be beating Reagan. However, president runs also energically, asking Americans to rely upon him. During the Election Day, something frightening happens : with 1,3% more than Reagan on popular votes, Ted Kennedy is beaten at the Electoral College.



Reagan : 48%, 271 E.V.
Kennedy : 49%, 267 E.V.


Some militants violently asked Reagan to reesign, but he refused, claiming that he was legally elected. During his second term, economy improved and Reagan regaigned popularity. His assassination attempt, in 1981, still raised it. He ended his term as one of the most popular president. His VP, George H. W. Bush, ran in 1984 and easily beat Kennedy.



Bush : 56%, 518 E.V.
Kennedy : 42%, 20 E.V.


Sequel coming soon.
« Last Edit: June 11, 2010, 05:23:32 am by Antonio V »Logged

HashCAN     americans saw the EP elections and people cringing at Europeans being morons and electing Nazis; so they massively said "NO" and decided to prove that they're still bigger morons



"A reformist is someone who realizes that, when you bang your head on a wall, it's the head that breaks rather than the wall."

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« Reply #1 on: April 15, 2009, 03:16:22 pm »
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Just a couple of things
1-I doubt Goldwater would ever come close to JFK in the polls. Part of the reason that he won the nomination was the fact that no one believed that the GOP could win, and they were more willing to nominate a right-winger.

2-It seems unlikely Kennedy would have kept LBJ on the ticket. He likely would have replaced him with either George Smathers or (more likely) Terry Sanford.

3-Kennedy would not have escalated the war in Vietnam. He likely would have kept a US prescience, but he was one of the few members of the military (he being the Commander in Chief) that believed that Vietnam was unwinnable (I for one dispute that it wasn't, but that's another story).

4-Nixon would not be the nominee in 1968. He did not want to get back into politics, and seemed to be on the course of becoming a respected elder statesman. But because of the anger in the nation at the policies of LBJ and the rise of the counter-culture, Nixon was a logical choice. Instead, either Rockefeller or Romney would be the nominee.

5-To replace LBJ for the Democratic nominee in 1968, I would put either Sanford or Smathers (whoever the VP). It would be difficult for them to win, but possible. In this case I can't see Wallace running, but if someone like HHH, Scoop, or RFK won the nomination then he would run as a segregationist.

6-I assume Bobby would run for the Senate in 1968 (he would likely stay on as AG under his brother).

7-But my biggest concern is the state of the Democratic Party. I know your French, so it might be difficult to understand, but Kennedy was by no means a modern liberal. He supported a strong military and low taxes, while supporting a large federal involvement in the economy.  Had he survived, the party would follow his lead, and remain the party of the working class, not the college class. So McGovern would not win the nomination in 1976. It would probably be Jackson, HHH, or Muskie. I also find it odd how dominant you made Reagan, for no particular reason.
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Antonio V
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« Reply #2 on: April 15, 2009, 04:23:25 pm »
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Just a couple of things
1-I doubt Goldwater would ever come close to JFK in the polls. Part of the reason that he won the nomination was the fact that no one believed that the GOP could win, and they were more willing to nominate a right-winger.

2-It seems unlikely Kennedy would have kept LBJ on the ticket. He likely would have replaced him with either George Smathers or (more likely) Terry Sanford.

3-Kennedy would not have escalated the war in Vietnam. He likely would have kept a US prescience, but he was one of the few members of the military (he being the Commander in Chief) that believed that Vietnam was unwinnable (I for one dispute that it wasn't, but that's another story).

4-Nixon would not be the nominee in 1968. He did not want to get back into politics, and seemed to be on the course of becoming a respected elder statesman. But because of the anger in the nation at the policies of LBJ and the rise of the counter-culture, Nixon was a logical choice. Instead, either Rockefeller or Romney would be the nominee.

5-To replace LBJ for the Democratic nominee in 1968, I would put either Sanford or Smathers (whoever the VP). It would be difficult for them to win, but possible. In this case I can't see Wallace running, but if someone like HHH, Scoop, or RFK won the nomination then he would run as a segregationist.

6-I assume Bobby would run for the Senate in 1968 (he would likely stay on as AG under his brother).

7-But my biggest concern is the state of the Democratic Party. I know your French, so it might be difficult to understand, but Kennedy was by no means a modern liberal. He supported a strong military and low taxes, while supporting a large federal involvement in the economy.  Had he survived, the party would follow his lead, and remain the party of the working class, not the college class. So McGovern would not win the nomination in 1976. It would probably be Jackson, HHH, or Muskie. I also find it odd how dominant you made Reagan, for no particular reason.

Thanks for these few remarks. You evidently know American politics better than me.

Just some anwers about what I know ( a bit ) :
- Why should Kennedy have changed of vice-president ? Johnson appears to have served well and was certainly a great campaigner.
- If Nixon returned into politics in real life, why could he not have done it in this what-if ? Johnson was a candidate, and he can oppose JFK policies as Johnson's.
- I understand that democratic party is not ( yet ? ) a "social-democratic" party, that's sure. But why should Kennedy be more economically conservative than Johnson ? I didn't invent Great Society.
- About Reagan, I didn't make him more dominant that he was in real life. You can be sure that I have absolutely no sympathy for Reagan.

However that, I prefere to continue my timeline as I already decided. Thanks.
« Last Edit: April 15, 2009, 04:27:03 pm by Antonio V »Logged

HashCAN     americans saw the EP elections and people cringing at Europeans being morons and electing Nazis; so they massively said "NO" and decided to prove that they're still bigger morons



"A reformist is someone who realizes that, when you bang your head on a wall, it's the head that breaks rather than the wall."

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« Reply #3 on: April 15, 2009, 05:05:22 pm »
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Interesting timeline. It's nice that you didn't drag it out for months, just gave the basics.
Good job! Smiley
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« Reply #4 on: April 15, 2009, 05:14:46 pm »
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Why are people stealing my ideas?
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« Reply #5 on: April 15, 2009, 06:19:17 pm »
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Why are people stealing my ideas?

You don't have a copyright on any historical events, so quit complaining.
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Antonio V
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« Reply #6 on: April 16, 2009, 08:06:34 am »
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Interesting timeline. It's nice that you didn't drag it out for months, just gave the basics.
Good job! Smiley

Thank you. In fact, I think to be unable to write a too long timeline. Glad that you appreciate it.


Why are people stealing my ideas?

Sorry, I probably will steal a lot of users timelines, even when I didn't know them. That's only because the subjects are interesting.


So, let's continue :

Bush's term is more hard. Voters appear to have enough of 16 years of republican government, when the economy didn't improve anymore. However, Ted Kennedy refused to run for the 1988 election, and no other democratic candidate appeared to emerge. Primaries were hardly-fought, main candidates being Michael Dukakis, Al Gore and reverend Jesse Jackson. During the primaries, Dukakis appeared to be winning but Gore, arguing that an ultraliberal like him had no chances to win against Bush, managed to win outside the south. Many liberal democrats were worried by the rising of a southerner, claiming that it was a return towar conservatism. However, Gore painted himself as a moderate "new democrat", ready to do a synthesis between democrat's tendencies and finally clinched the nomination. During the general campaign, Gore attacked Bush about his inefficient economical policies and claimed that people wanted a change. He campaigned quite good and got a close but decise victory.



Gore : 51%, 347 E.V.
Bush : 47%, 191 E.V.


Gore's relatively bad performance in southern states, and particularly is his home state of Tennessee, showed that southerners kept opposing democratic policies. Gores's first term was concentrated on foreign policies, trying to favor the fall of communism. His action was appreciated by a majority of americans who saw him as a competent President, even if the economy kept goind bad. The republican primaires campaign, without any strong candidate, was very long. At the end, ultraconserative Pat Buchanan got a narrow victory against Bob Dole and Arlen Specter. However, he revealed to be a disastrous candidate for the GOP, and Gore easily painted his as a danderous far-rightist and won by a landslide.



Gore : 54%, 410 E.V.
Buchanan : 43%, 128 E.V.


During Gore's second term, economy improved and he got more and more popular. For the 1996 election, his vice president Walter Mondale was the candidate of the democrats, even if he was challenged by Bill Clinton and John Kerry during primaries. On the republican side, General Colin Powell was one of the most prominent candidates, being ahead in the polls against Jeb Bush and Steve Forbes. But during primaries, he appeared to be a victim of Bradley effect, losing several primaries that he was expected to win. Finally, Powell resigned and became the running mate of Bush who clinched the nomination. The campaign was one of the hardest, with the polls giving it extremely close. The spectre of 1980, with one candidate winning the popular vote but losing the EV, was evoked. At the end, after painting Mondale as an ultraprogressive, Bush won the election with the narrowest margin since JFK.



Bush : 49%, 272 E.V.
Mondale : 49%, 266 E.V.


Bush's term goes quite good, but he never manages to get a strong legitimacy after a so short victory. For the 2000 election, he was expected to win by less than 5%. The situation got worse when VP Powell refused to be for the second time his running mate. Bush replaced him with Bob Dole, who was certainly less popular. On the democratic side, primaries were hardly fought, with main candidates being John Edwards, John Kerry and Howard Dean. Edwards pointed out that since 1964, only southerner democrats managed to be elected. However, Kerry performed good in New England and Midwest. Dean was saw as a compromise candidate and rapidly got some important victories. Finally, Kerry endorsed Dean who easily clinched nomination, picking Edwards as running mate. The campaign was close, but Bush campaign appeared not to have Dean's energy. Plus, the idnependent candidacy of Ralph Nalder, despite his ultraprogressism, worried a lot the republican candidate in the west. Dean, whose polls were better and better, was finally elected.



Dean : 46%, 315 E.V.
Bush : 44%, 223 E.V.
Nader : 8%, 0 E.V.
 

The 9/11, the Afghanistan war gave rapidly a strong legitimacy to Dean, who managed to keep the American confident. He even recieved the support of a great part of republicans, who saw him as a good Commander in chief. Without any popular republican wanting to run, Dan Quayle clinche the nomination, and couldn't prevent Dean's landslide victory.



Dean : 57%, 399 E.V.
Quayle : 41%, 139 E.V.


Nothing important happens during Dean's second term, until the economical crisis. Although the majority of american don't consider Dean as the responsible, it gave back hope to republicans. After an energical and original campaign, John McCain becomes the republican nominee. Secretary of defense ( nominated by Dean in 2004 ) Colin Powell accepts to become his running mate. John Edwards easily becomes the democratic candidate, chosing young senator of Illinois Barack Obama as his running mate. Rapidly, McCain appears to be highly popular, and Edwards is never able to get a momentum and even lost his home state.



McCain : 52%, 307 E.V.
Edwards : 47%, 231 E.V.

What will McCain do ? Will he be a successful president ?


The end.


Next timeline : 1892, Weaver elected president
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HashCAN     americans saw the EP elections and people cringing at Europeans being morons and electing Nazis; so they massively said "NO" and decided to prove that they're still bigger morons



"A reformist is someone who realizes that, when you bang your head on a wall, it's the head that breaks rather than the wall."

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« Reply #7 on: April 16, 2009, 07:55:57 pm »
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Interesting timeline, but perhaps you should read more about American history.

1-Kennedy hated Johnson personally. He only put him on the ticket in 1960 because he needed a moderate southerner.

2-Reagan' rise to glory was caused by the cultural divisions in America that arose in the late 1960s. He was able to take Nixon's "Silent Majority" (which would not have existed in this time line) and turn it into a super-majority. You ever heard of Reagan Democrats? Well they were big Kennedy fans. In Macomb County (a Detroit Suburb) Kennedy won 60% of the vote in 1960. In 1980, Reagan won 60% of the vote there. This is because the white working-class turned on the Democrats.

Nonetheless, I still like your concepts.
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« Reply #8 on: April 17, 2009, 05:56:21 am »
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Interesting timeline, but perhaps you should read more about American history.

1-Kennedy hated Johnson personally. He only put him on the ticket in 1960 because he needed a moderate southerner.

2-Reagan' rise to glory was caused by the cultural divisions in America that arose in the late 1960s. He was able to take Nixon's "Silent Majority" (which would not have existed in this time line) and turn it into a super-majority. You ever heard of Reagan Democrats? Well they were big Kennedy fans. In Macomb County (a Detroit Suburb) Kennedy won 60% of the vote in 1960. In 1980, Reagan won 60% of the vote there. This is because the white working-class turned on the Democrats.

Nonetheless, I still like your concepts.

Thanks for these explanations. Wink
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HashCAN     americans saw the EP elections and people cringing at Europeans being morons and electing Nazis; so they massively said "NO" and decided to prove that they're still bigger morons



"A reformist is someone who realizes that, when you bang your head on a wall, it's the head that breaks rather than the wall."

Peppino, from the movie Baaria
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« Reply #9 on: April 19, 2009, 11:29:13 am »
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That was interesting. Nothing wrong with a short timeline.
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Thank you, Mr. President.
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« Reply #10 on: June 27, 2009, 02:10:28 pm »
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Ok, since I have no idea for Weaver, I prefer to try with a classical but quite complicated scenario. Please don't be too tough with me, though I'm sure that many things I'll write will be ridiculous.


Second timeline : Confederacy wins war

Southerner generals proved to be more intelligent and didn't get defeated as in real life. As President Lincoln was determinated in keeping his countrty united, the was lasted for more time, and human losses were enormous. Finally, on august 1967, president Lincoln reluctanty signed capitulation. According to the treaty, West Virginia, Kentucky and Missouri would remain in the Union, but the territories that today compose OK, NM and AZ became part of the newborn Confederate States of America. Federal capital was officially moved to New York, in order to protect it in case of a new war, but also to reflect more the new demographics. Lincoln became highly unpopular after defeat, and Republican Party seemed to be going to be defeated in 1868 election.

After an hardly-fought convention, the radical republican Benjamin Wade clinched the republican nomination, adopting a strongly anti-south platform appreciated by the republican grassroots. On the democratic side, Horatio Seymour was nominated, claiming for a reconciliation with Confederacy. Vice-President Andrew Johnson became his running mate. Seymour appeared to lead during the whole campaing, with a Republican Party discredited by the disastrouth war. But finally, the traditional republican states feared a possible abrogation of Abolishment, and chose to rely on the republican ticket. Wade won by a close margin, but this surprise defeat deeply hurt the Democratic party, that revealed to be totally uprooted without the Solid South, and began an inexorable fall...



Wade : 51%, 133 E.V.
Seymour : 49%, 104 E.V.


While the Confederacy was recognized by many european states, the Wade administration refused to have any diplomatic relation with it. The emigration of many black slaves from the confederacy to the union was also a major diplomatic issue, with President Wade refusing to close boundaries. Finally, a substantial minority of the Republican Party fostered hatefull propaganda against southerners, some of them even calling for a "revenge war" after the Reconstruction. Anyways, almost the entire coutry was now "northerner" and supported this radical policies. The democratic party could not recreate the 1868 momentum, and suffered a huge defeat in the 1970 local elections, outside the border states. It lost most of his legitimacy in northern states, where the Republicans now dominated every branch of local government. These factors, plus the beginning of an economical recovery after the war, caused a solid reelection for Wade in 1872.



Wade : 56%, 244 E.V.
Hendricks : 44%, 27 E.V.


The Wade administration pursued his anti-South policies, being very tough even with the southern states that remained in the Union. This, plus the corruption of admministration, caused a split in the Republican Party and the creation of a Moderate Republican party. A great majority of democrats in northern states joined this new party, that won Congressional elections with a plurality of seats in each house. For 1876 presidential elections, the MRP nominated Samuel J. Tilden and Rutherford B. Hayes as presidential and vice-presidential candidates. Republicans nominated Henry Wilson, to pursue the radical policies of his predecessor. Finally, the Democratic party chose B. Gratz Brown, without any possibility of win. The election between Wilson and Tilden appeared to be extremely close, with Brown finishing as third of the race. Finally, no candidate got an absolute majority, and the Congress should elect the president.



Wilson : 37%, 132 E.V.
Tilden : 39%, 130 E.V.
Brown : 22%, 12 E.V.


The result was a major political crisis, with Wilson claiming to have won the election, though he was 2 points behind Tilden. The fact that Colorado didn't use popular vote method was also quite problematic. The decision of the House was quite uncertain. Though MRP got a plurality of representatives, the candidacy of Brown could take some votes and cause a defeat. Things were going to become harsh between the two parties. Finally, a compromise was found between radical and moderate republicans. The House unanimously elected Tilden as president, because he got the popular vote plurality. However, moderate senators also supported the election of Chester A. Arthur, the radical republican candidate, as vice-president. As a result of this compromise, Republican and Moderate republican party merged back in a new Republican Party, bringing inside of it also the great majority of former northern democrats. American politics entered in a new Era of Good Feeling, with Republican party becoming an ultra-dominating party. This, plus the economy going better and better, and a more honest administration, caused the greatest landslide since 1820 for Tilden.



Tilden : 64%, 274 E.V.
McCreary : 29%, 0 E.V.


Tilden's policies during his two terms were focused on reconciliation with the Confederacy. With the Louisville treaty, the Union officially recognized the Confederacy as an independent state, in exchange of what Confederacy renounced at his claims on slaves who escaped. He also worked to improve the diplomatic relations with United Kingdom, in order to have a solid alliee in case of a new war. During the 1880's, the great poverty of western farmers and eastern workers caused the rise of many populist movements. However, these movements were divided and there was a great wariness between workers and farmers. However, the Greenback Party, led by Benjamin Butler, rapidly grew and became in 1884 the second largest political force, surpassing a dying democratic party. The republican candidate, James Garfield, won easily, continuing this second Era of Good Feelings.



Garfield : 57%, 274 E.V.
Butler : 31%, 20 E.V.
Faulkner : 8%, 0 E.V.


After this epic failure, the Democratic Party definitely ceased to exist. The success of the Greenback Party convinced the leaders of the many labor movements that time was up to unify the movement in a strong party able to win elections. So, in 1887, the fusion of the Greenback Party, labor movements and many former democrats, resulted in the creation of the Populist Party. It rapidly chose charismatic James Weaver as his candidate for 1888 election. President Garfield refusing to seek a second term, William H. Harrison became the republican candidate. The election appeared to be exceptionally close compared with preceding, proving the strength of the Populist Party. Finally, Weaver got defeated, because people still relied in incumbent republican administration. But popular and electoral results were again those of a normal two-parties system, and the Era of Good Feeling was definitely ended.



Harrison : 51%, 190 E.V.
Weaver : 48%, 104 E.V.
« Last Edit: June 27, 2009, 02:33:10 pm by Antonio V »Logged

HashCAN     americans saw the EP elections and people cringing at Europeans being morons and electing Nazis; so they massively said "NO" and decided to prove that they're still bigger morons



"A reformist is someone who realizes that, when you bang your head on a wall, it's the head that breaks rather than the wall."

Peppino, from the movie Baaria
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« Reply #11 on: June 27, 2009, 03:27:31 pm »
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Excellent, excellent timeline. Please continue this work of art.
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Im not gonna to contiue this TL. U r all jelaous and blind. Ur liberal (see, correctli!) ideology dunno allow u to have just a fun Sad
August US starts to bomb Keyna, where outsed Obama was creating a mercenary units to regain power
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« Reply #12 on: June 27, 2009, 07:48:04 pm »
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BTW, if anybody wants to use some of my "What-if" ideas, feel free.
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« Reply #13 on: June 28, 2009, 09:31:19 am »
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Excellent, excellent timeline. Please continue this work of art.

Wow... I would never have thought my timeline would be so appreciated. Thanks a lot. Wink

So, let's continue :


Harrison's term was quite hard, with economy starting to worsen and protests against the republican goverment becoming harsher and harsher. In 1890, the Populist Party took the control of many state legislatures and governorships, putting an end to Republican domination. Rapidly, it appeared that 1892 would be a rematch of 1888 election, with Weaver challenging again president Harrison. But the increasing poverty of workers in the Midwest due to the bad economic situation caused a massive swing of industrial states toward the Populist party. Plus, the new Western states, that were populist strongholds, brought to Weaver a decisive margin for Electoral College. After 32 years of continuous republican government, Weaver was finally elected by a comfortable margin, transforming the Populist party in a real government party.



Weaver : 52%, 180 E.V.
Harrison : 47%, 152 E.V.


As president, Weaver undertook many reforms that were on the populist platform. Even if he managed to impose bimetallism and direct election of Senators, his attemps to create an income tax failed because the Congress was still republican in majority. Plus, many of his attempts to help economically the western farmers were invalidated by Supreme Court. Even if populists took the control of Senate in the first popular election in 1894, poor people started to lose confidence in Weaver. Weaver claimed to be a victim of a conservative establishment, but Republican Party was expected to win comfortably in 1896. However, on december 1895, Weaver was assassinated and his VP James H. Kyle became president. The truth about his assassination has never been discovered, but Populist party claimed that it was a massive conspiracy of big buisnessmen and republican politicians. The emotion after this event caused a rapid growth in populist support. After President Kyle refused to run, leader of the moderate wing of the Populist party, William J. Bryan, defeated republican nominee William McKinley in a landslide.



Bryan : 54%, 245 E.V.
McKinley : 45%, 90 E.V.


The election of Bryan as president also brang a solid majority for populist in both houses. This second victory definitely changed the nature of the Populist party. What until that seemed to be just an organized popular movement began to look more and more like a traditional political party. Also, some populist leaders pointed out the "gentrification" of many elected officials, and caused a major split in the party. Bryan, who continued Weaver policies in favor of poor people, but governed as a moderate to prevent confrontations with the Supreme Court, was heavily criticized by many westerner populists. However, during 1898 elections, the most radical populist leaders got defeated, showing the party's will to follow a moderate and reformist way. However, the economy heavily collapsed during Bryan's term, and northeastern and midwestern workers stopped to rely on him. Plus, Bryan's isolationist foreign policy during Cuban war was heavily criticized, even inside the Populist Party. The greatest defect of it, the lack of a real political platform for non-economic issues, began to be a real problem. Also, republican candidate Alton Parker, though lacking charisma, defeated Bryan in 1900.



Parker : 51%, 217 E.V.
Bryan : 47%, 118 E.V.


Parker being a quite weak president, US policies were in fact dominated by Secretary of State William McKinley. His foreign policies, radically opposed to Bryan's, was imperialist and interventionist. While the cuban war continued, American invasion convinced Spanishs to withdraw. He also tried to improve US relation with Europe, playing the part of a mediator in conflicts between UK, France and Germany. A major crisis started when Germany, who lusted after french Morocco, tried to conquier it by force. Confederacy, that tried to break his diplomatic isolation, sent a part of its fleet to help Germany. As a result, McKinley inposed a blockade on Confederacy, whose weak and rural economy was about to collapse, and was forced to withdraw. This success greatly improved US diplomatic stregth, and favored his imperialist views. McKinley policies were in fact supported by a great part of populist that refused the official pacifist platform. During Parker's term, the economy also began to recovery and the fast growth also benefitted to poorest classes. With no prominent populist leader wanting to run in 1904, Eugene V. Debs, representing the most radical wing of the party, was nominated for an hopeless candidacy. Parker was therefore easily reelected, against a more and more divided Populist party.



Parker : 54%, 285 E.V.
Debs : 43%, 71 E.V.


The election results showed that republicans were beginning to get again competitive in western states, that used to be populist stongholds since the 1890's. This results particularly worried the Populist Party, that feared to lose his grassroots there. The extraordinary economic growth continued during Parker's second term, and republican leadership kept proving to be effective. However, the rise of the Progressive movement and its new demands of more democracy and social justice gave the Populist Party a second boost. Whereas republican nominee William H. Taft revealed to be an uncharismatic and too conservative candidate, the populist convention resulted in an epic fight between former president William J. Bryan and New York Governor Theodore Roosevelt, the first representing the traditional populist and isolationist wing, the second embodying the Progressive movement and calling for renewal. Finally, Roosevelt's charisma permitted him to clinch the nomination, and then to beat Taft in a very close election.



Roosevelt : 49%, 189 E.V.
Taft : 48%, 167 E.V.


Roosevelt policies revealed to be radically progressive, but he managed to deal with Supreme Court in order to pass his most important economic and social reforms. His two major successes were a very progressive income tax ( 1909 ) and full voting rights for women and natives ( 1911 ). However, his Antitrust law was in great part amended by the Congress. This radical policies made Roosevelt very popular among lower classes, whereas traditionnal conservatives deeply hated him. The economic expansion continuing, and Roosevelt's interventionnist foreign policies, made his 1912 reelection easy, without any hope for his republican opponent James S. Sherman.



Roosevelt : 52%, 255 E.V.
Sherman : 47%, 134 E.V.
« Last Edit: June 28, 2009, 10:00:51 am by Antonio V »Logged

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« Reply #14 on: June 28, 2009, 01:21:20 pm »
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I'm falling more and more in love with this timeline. What's the status of Hawaii?
Here's hoping for a third Roosevelt term.
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Im not gonna to contiue this TL. U r all jelaous and blind. Ur liberal (see, correctli!) ideology dunno allow u to have just a fun Sad
August US starts to bomb Keyna, where outsed Obama was creating a mercenary units to regain power
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« Reply #15 on: June 29, 2009, 05:02:17 am »
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I'll probably not be able to update it today, sorry. Wink

What's the status of Hawaii?
Since USA had not the military power that they had in real life (although they did great progresses during Parker and Roosevelt administrations), they never invaded Hawaii, that remained an independent country. They also didn't purchase Alaska to Russia.

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Here's hoping for a third Roosevelt term.
It could have been. Unfortunately, external events will ruin his chances for 1916...
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HashCAN     americans saw the EP elections and people cringing at Europeans being morons and electing Nazis; so they massively said "NO" and decided to prove that they're still bigger morons



"A reformist is someone who realizes that, when you bang your head on a wall, it's the head that breaks rather than the wall."

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« Reply #16 on: July 01, 2009, 05:54:01 pm »
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Sorry for these two days without any update ( I had exams Wink ). It's time to continue :


Roosevelt started his term highly popular, especially among poor people. However, his second term was mostly focused on International policies. Indeed, diplomatic relations in Europe were getting tenser and tenser, and Roosevelt was convicted that USA should take part in it. When World War I began in Europe, USA brought an important logistical help to Alliees, and particularly UK. German reaction was particularly violent, and Roosevelt chose to adopt a tough attitude, though many Progressives heavily criticized him. After Lusitania, Roosevelt was convicted that USA should actively take part in the war. In an epic speech before the people in Washington, Roosevelt claimed that "Time is up to bring freedom in the Europe, an Europe threatened by despotic forces !". Though this speech remained as a great moment of american history, Roosevelt didn't manage to convince people that US intervent was necessary, and public opinion heavily disapproved him. In Europe, American intervent put Germany in a catastrophic situation, having to fight in two battlefronts. As of june 1916, France was entirely liberated and alliee's armies entered in Germany. However, the war was lasting for too much time for american population, and Roosevelt began to be deeply unpopular. As of october 1916, alliee's vicory appeared to be imminent, but a great majority of people wanted "peace now". Roosevelt, whose popularity before war convinced him to seek a third term, even failed to get his party's nomination, losing every primary organized. Populist convention chose California Governor Hiram Johnson, known as an isolationist and strongly opposed to World War I. On the Republican side, moderate Charles E. Hughes clinched the nomination, claiming for and immediate peace without conditions. The two candidates appeared to be highly popular, and the race was extremely close. However, Hughes managed to make the Populist Party collectively responsible of the war, and Johnson did some gaffes in the end of the campaign. Finally, German-American voters, who used to be strongly populists, massively swang toward the Republican Party and gave Hughes a decise victory.



Hughes : 52%, 239 E.V.
Johnson : 46%, 150 E.V.


During the end of his term, Roosevelt persisted to continue the war policies, claiming that the victory was imminent. Ironically, the armistice was signed only three days after he left office, and the return of the peace benefitted to Hughes, though he in fact did nothing to bring it. Though this saddening end of his term, future historians will consider Roosevelt as one of the better presidents in American history. Hughes' policies was strongly isolationist, and USA didn't involve in the peace treaties that followed World War I. The end of the war and a good economic situation, plus his quite moderate economic policies, made his 1920 reelection easy, defeating Illinois Senator Harold Ickes by a solid margin.



Hughes : 53%, 325 E.V.
Ickes : 46%, 64 E.V.


With the big economic growth of the 1920's, Hughes was seen as a successful president and people relied more and more in the Republican Party to govern the country. Even if the external situation was getting tenser and tenser, he refused to intervent in any ways, weakening diplomatic relations with former alliees. At the same time, the populist party appeared more and more divided on foreign policies and economy, while "laissez-faire" was the dogma of every republican for both these issues. However, President Hughes couldn't profit by his popularity any longer. Only one year after the beginning of his second term, he was killed by a crazy french military veteran who hated him because he considered him as reponsible of the fact the Versailles treaty was too "magnanimous" with Germany... Vice-President Herbert C. Hoover also became President of the United States. This event ruined any chance for the 1924 populist ticket, led by Robert M. LaFollette, and caused a landslide vicrtory for Hoover.



Hoover : 60%, 372 E.V.
LaFollette : 39%, 17 E.V.


Hoover's term happened without any great event, but the economy kept going well and republicans were considered as responsible of this situation. Populists seemed to disappear from political scene, even losing the confidence of western farmers, who traditionnally were their most solid electors. When Hoover announced he would not run for 1928 presidential election, a harsh fight began for the republican nomination. The two major candidates were Calvin Coolidge and Al Smith. At the beginning of the convention, Smith appeared to have poor chances to win, because of his catholicism, that could threaten his chances of winning. However, he proved to have a great charisma and defeated Coolidge in many protestant states. After that, convention finally nominated him as presidential candidate. Hiram Johnson, who had remained a major leader of Populist Party, won again his party's nomination. Populists were getting more and more hopeful to put an end to these 12 years of republican government, and violently attacked Smith on his faith. However, Smith rapidly apperaed to be a great orator, and answered to Johnson's religious critics "Mr. Johnson, today I'm not a Catholic, and you are not a protestant. I'm a republican and you are a populist". Finally, confidence into the republican leadership appeared to be stronger than prejudices and bigotry, and populists couldn't prevent a fourth republican victory.



Smith : 51%, 209 E.V.
Johnson : 48%, 180 E.V.


Though Smith's term began quite well, only six months after his inauguration, a Krach of the Wall Street Stock Maket occurred, and rapidly caused a chain reaction that destroyed in few time all the country's economy. Social consequences were terrible, with millions of jobless and homeless. In this situation, President Smith chose to adopt a "laisser faire" policies, convicted that the State could do nothing to resolve the crisis. However, with economic and social crisis getting stronger and stronger year after year, Smith began to be highly unpopular, and his ideological positions appeared more and more ridiculous. This major event gave the Populist Party a new life, and also permitted a new generation to emerge. Also, Franklin Delano Roosevelt was unanimously nominated as presidential candidate. His claim for a "New Deal" for USA, with a massive intervent of the State in the economy, had a great effect among poorest people, who became back strongly populists. Finally, Roosevelt heavily criticized Smith as an incompetent and an ideologist, whereas Smith was unable to justify his policies. The result was a landslide for Roosevelt, who brought back the Populist party at government and permitted what appears to be one of the greatest realignments in the history.



Roosevelt : 56%, 357 E.V.
Smith : 42%, 54 E.V.


After his inauguration, Roosevelt immediately began to work on massive economic reforms. His first measures focused on the immediate resolution of the crisis, and mostly consisted on public works in order to give back jobs. He also invested a lot in industry and agriculture, creating many federal agencies to regulate them. The Supreme Court tried to oppose some of these reforms, but its power appeared to have seriously declined due to Weaver and T. Roosevelt successive attempts to pass reforms. In 1935, Roosevelt managed to reform the juges' nomination system, allowing him to nominate more juges and to rapidly control Supreme Court. Then, the second part of his term was focused on structural reforms of Federal State's action. These reforms were considerable, with Roosevelt's greatest successes being a 95% income tax for wealthiers, a public social security system for old-age pensions, but also for illness and unemployment, and an enforcement of labor unions in the enterprises. These measures caused heavy critics from the buisness milieu and the press. But Roosevelt was convicted the people would support them for his reelection in 1936, and chose to claim himself as a social-democrat. In fact, the economy greatly improved during his term, and his policies appeared to be efficient also for unemployment and poverty. As a result, Roosevelt got, against former Vice President Coolidge, the greatest landslide since 52 years, and nobody ever did better after him.



Roosevelt : 62%, 403 E.V.
Coolidge : 37%, 8 E.V.
« Last Edit: September 19, 2010, 11:14:50 am by Antonio V »Logged

HashCAN     americans saw the EP elections and people cringing at Europeans being morons and electing Nazis; so they massively said "NO" and decided to prove that they're still bigger morons



"A reformist is someone who realizes that, when you bang your head on a wall, it's the head that breaks rather than the wall."

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« Reply #17 on: June 09, 2010, 11:31:48 am »
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Hi there !
I can't believe I'm resuming a thread which is more than one year old, but it's high time to finish this damn TL once for all. Smiley Well, last time I didn't get many comments but I promise that I will do my best to make it more interesting. There were severla parts of my TL I neglected previously, so it may be time to focus precisely on them.

And first of all, we could start looking at the situation in the Confederacy and his international situation;


History of the Confederate States of America (1867-1936)

Feeling of popular enthusiasm after the North's capitulation was soon replaced by some uncertainties about the possibility of the new State to function probperly. In order to answer them, all the 11 new States called for a new Consititutional Convention establishing a Constitution better reflecting the will of the 11 States.

The Convention start meeting in november of 1867, and in june 1868 the new Confdederate constitution was unanimously ratified. This Constitution grated more rights to the States, affirming that "each State is a free and sovereign entity" and considering the Confederacy as "a voluntary association of 11 independent States in order to ensure a common defense of them interests". With such definitions, it appeared clearly that the new Confederal government would have an extremely reduced influence, limited to foreign poicies, and some particular economical domains. Any State legislature could have the power, with a two-thirds majority, to nullify any federal law outside those domains. Secession also became a constitutionally guaranteed right, even though with a very long and complicated procedure. The new Confederate capital was set in Atlanta.
The federal Government would be composed by the Senate, appointed by State legislatures (each State had 3 Senators, and their term lasted for 9 years) and a House of Representatives composed by 66 representatives elected by popular vote in districts for 3 years (each State had 3 representatives granted and the remaining was dealt between them according to their population). The president was elected for 6 years by the Congress with a 60% majority required. Finally, the Supreme Court consisted in 6 Justices nominated by Governors and confirmed by state legislatures in each states, with a complicated system of "rotation" in 6 "justice districts" (the 1st was composed by Virginia, the 2nd by NC and SC, the 3rd by GA, the 4th by TN, the 5th by AL, MS and FL, the 6th by AR, LA and TX). which could be redrawn in he case of admission of a new States, their term lasting for 9 years.
As for the State governments, they were left entirely free in their organizations, but most of them iminted the Federal model and changed their constitutions in order to make the Governor appointed by the Legislatures.

Several of these institutional changes were done in order to favor the States' power. Hoverer, the longer terms of all the offices, the indirect election of Presidents and governors as well as the reinforcement of the Senate made the new institutions extremely elitist, a change which proved to have dramatic consequences in the future.

The first Congressional elections were held later this year, on November for representatives and December for Senators. The parties, which had disappeared since the Civil war, rapidly reconstructed at this time. On one side, the old Secessionist establishment gathered in the National Union Party, which kept the same slavist and anti-North plank as the old democrats. On the other side, former unionists and moderate secessionists who favored reconciliation with the North re-founded the Whig Party. It soon appeared that, with much of the glory for the Southern victory, the National Union Party was going to a landslide victory in the upcoming congressional elections. Indeed, the received commanding majorities in both Houses :

1868 House elections :



National Union : 50
Whig : 16

1868 Senate elections (due to this election being the first, three Senators were appointed ath the same time) :



National Union : 29
Whig : 4

The newly elected Congress unanimously re-elected Jefferson Davis, now considered as a hero by southerners, as President of the Confederacy.
« Last Edit: June 09, 2010, 11:35:29 am by Antonio V »Logged

HashCAN     americans saw the EP elections and people cringing at Europeans being morons and electing Nazis; so they massively said "NO" and decided to prove that they're still bigger morons



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« Reply #18 on: June 09, 2010, 03:36:07 pm »
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Good to see you started up again. Hopefully you will do better than my TL did.
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« Reply #19 on: June 11, 2010, 08:45:43 am »
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Very quickly, the colossal majorities got by the NUP in the States of the Deep South (particularly in state legislatures, which were under the new Consitution the Confederacy's most powerful intitutions) led to the creation of true political machines in those States, effectively putting an end to any kind of pluralism. By 1875, the States of South Carolina, Georgia, Alabama and Mississipi had passed laws disenfranchising poor whites, so that in those states the electorate represented less than 10% of the voting age men. The National Union Party, which represented the interests of rich landowners there, obviously was ensured to conrol every branch of State governments.

In other States, competition rapidly increased between Whigs and NUPists. Indeed, while right after the war, the NUP had the prestige for the victoy, the economic situation of the Confederacy significatly worsened throughout the 1880s. Indeed, the plantation economy, focused on agriculture, rapidly proved to generate poor incomes, compared to the Noth's prosperous industries. European countries were managing to become self-sufficients for the products the CSA exported, thanks to their colonial empires, so that most commercial relations were with South-American countires or Spanish colonies in the caribbean.

As a result, the Whig's party situation started to improve (outside the deep south) after 1874 and even more in 1877 elections, adopting a plank in favor of development of industires in the CSA. Its most prominent leaders included former anti-secessionists like Tennessee Senator David Patterson, as well as "Independence war" heroes like William Smith, Leader of the Whig Caucus in the Virginia Senate, now united by a will to modernize and serving the interests of lower-to-middle class voters in the upper South.

In 1874, president Jefferson Davis declined offer of re-election by the Congress. The NUP, fearing to face problems in electing a too politically connoted President, immediately started to look for someone whose popularity would make his presidency consensual enough to preserve their interests. They eventually managed to convince John C. Breckinridge, who was once again easily elected, with only a few whig Congressmen voting for Smith. However, as Breckinridge died soon after his entry in office, Vice-President William P. Miles, a stauch secessionist and effective leader of the NUP machine in South Carolina, replaced him. With his inauguration, NUP's domination in Confederate politics became total.

In 1880, whigs saw major gains in both Houses, as well as in some State legislatures. This excluded however one-party states of the Deep South :

The House after 1880 elections :



National Union : 37 (around 48% of PV)
Whig : 29 (around 51% of PV)

The Senate after 1880 elections (light shades indicate a 2-1 split) :



National Union : 22
Whig : 11
« Last Edit: June 11, 2010, 12:28:39 pm by Antonio V »Logged

HashCAN     americans saw the EP elections and people cringing at Europeans being morons and electing Nazis; so they massively said "NO" and decided to prove that they're still bigger morons



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« Reply #20 on: June 13, 2010, 09:48:04 am »
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These congressional elections resulted in one of the major constitutional crisis of the only 12-years-old Confederacy. Indeed, when it was certified that whigs would control 40 of the 99 seats, it immediately appeared that the upcoming presidential election would be an awkward. Thus, even though the NUP (whose candidates remained Miles) remained heavily favored, it lacked the 60% majority necessary to elect a President. The death, only a few weeks after the elections (and too late to organize a by-election before Presidential elections), of a NUP congressman further increased the party's concerns. Deep South bosses, who dominated the party, heavily lobbied their party's congressmen in order to ensure a perfect voter discipline (and hope Whigs would be less disciplined). However, Miles' controversial figure led several of them to abstain or even vote Miles. At the first round, it appeared that the vote would be deadlocked :

Miles : 53
Smith : 42

The elections was going on for months, with no solution to resolve it. Finally, on march 6, 1881 (and while confederacy was getting mocked in several countries as the "nation without a President"), bosses of the two parties met in Atlanta. In a historical agreement between the two parties (which used to loath each others), the NUP eventually accepted to vote for Smith (but with moderate NUPer Thomas J. Semmes from Louisiana as Vice-President), in exchange of the support from the Whigs of a constitutional Amendment which would require a simple majority for the election fo the President. This deal was seen as a positive event for the confederacy, which gained more stability and recognition.

As a president, Smith expressed his will to end the Confederacy's diplomatic isolation and to apease the tensions inherited from the Civil War. This will encountered a similar will from Union President Samuel Tilden, recently reelected in a landslide, and resulted in the signature of the Louisville Treaty, by which the two nations recognized each other, and allowed significant cuts in the Union's very high tarifs which paralyzed all exchanges between them. However, president Smith faced difficulties in having the treaty ratified by the Congress, where the most radical called him a "traitor". Even though he eventually managed to get ratification, his further initiatives weren't that successful. In 1883, his deep reform of the Confederacy's fiscal system in a way which would have been less favorable to plantation economy and more to new industries failed in both Houses (and several states of the Deep South had already made clear that they would nullify it anyways). In 1883 congressional elections, whigs saw major losses in both Houses.

However, Smith wouldn't have the possibility to lead his party for the 1886 presidential bid. Indeed, on 14th September of 1883, he was assassinated by John Wilkes Booth, a radical opponent of Smith's "treasonous" policies. This event was the start of the real troubles for the young nation : as Semmes became President, violent riots emerged throughout the North of the country, where Smith and whigs remained quite popular. As a respose, the NUP-dominated congress passed a series of laws limiting civil liberties and reinforcing police control. this further increased ire in the North, and by 1884, while riots hadn't lost their strength, North Carolina nullified what northerners mocked as "Booth laws", soon followed by Tennessee.

NUPists, who before considered themselves as champions of "States rights", started to develop a nationalist rhetoric, claiming that the nation's integrity was "threatened" by "unrerst, anarchy and treason" and that a strong federal government was the only thing that could "save our nation from chaos". At the end of 1884, the Departepment of Justice decided to bring the case before the Supreme Court (which was still dominated by the NUP 5-1), arguing that States hadn't competence to nullify laws in this domain. The Supreme court ruling gave right to the DoJ, thus overrifing nullifications and allowing federal troops to "restore order" in NC and Tennessee.

As 1886 elections approached, the NUP feared major losses in the North. The admittance of Oklahoma, only two months before elections, as the 12th state of the Union was meant to secure some more seats tothe NUP, usually strong in the west. However, by 1885, the economy, which previously had started a slight recovery under Smith's term, saw a major collapse. As a result, a new political force, the "People's party", had emerged in the States of Texas, Oklahoma and Arkansas, defending the interests of poor farmers. Finally, the NUP retained the control in both Houses, despite major shifts toward Whigs in the Northernn States and the PP picking a handful of seats in the West. Thanks to the consitutional Amendment passed in 1881 and ratifed in 1882, the narrow NUP majority was sufficient for them to re-elect Semmes as President.

Semmes, who was considered as a member of the "compromise wing" of the NUP, was also a staunch partisan of the Nation's unity, so he supported tough measures voted by the Congress against riots, which had ceased anyways by 1886. However, the limits imposed to free speech led to the arrests of several whig politicians who had vocally expressed critics against the federal government. Also, in order to avoid 1883-1886 events to happen again, the Congress passed several bills dramatically increasing the size of the federal army (which was previously smaller than some State national guards) and raising its power. In the end of 1880s, the Confederacy was clearly following the path toward authoritarism...
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HashCAN     americans saw the EP elections and people cringing at Europeans being morons and electing Nazis; so they massively said "NO" and decided to prove that they're still bigger morons



"A reformist is someone who realizes that, when you bang your head on a wall, it's the head that breaks rather than the wall."

Peppino, from the movie Baaria
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« Reply #21 on: June 14, 2010, 03:48:49 pm »
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Ok, I see nobody is interested...
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HashCAN     americans saw the EP elections and people cringing at Europeans being morons and electing Nazis; so they massively said "NO" and decided to prove that they're still bigger morons



"A reformist is someone who realizes that, when you bang your head on a wall, it's the head that breaks rather than the wall."

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« Reply #22 on: June 14, 2010, 04:26:48 pm »
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Oh, I like it. Perhaps it needs a new thread, though. Smiley
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« Reply #23 on: June 14, 2010, 07:53:41 pm »
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Had the south won, I've always thought of WWI and WWII effects. Would the south had waited as long as the union did? Would the wars had been over sooner? Would they have sided with the union's enemies more and more throughout the late 19th century?
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I'm Derek and I approve this message.
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« Reply #24 on: June 28, 2010, 05:38:17 am »
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Very Good!!!!!!!1
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