Congressional Quarterly Releases U.S. Senate Forecasts for 2010

[HAnnA MArin County]

Here are Congressional Quarterly (CQ)'s first and very early race forecasts for the upcoming U.S. Senate elections in 2010, released as of Saturday, April 25, 2009:

Tossups/No Clear Favorites
• Connecticut (Chris Dodd, D)
• Florida (OPEN SEAT - Mel Martinez, R)
• Illinois (Roland Burris, D)
• Kentucky (Jim Bunning, R)
• Missouri (OPEN SEAT - Kit Bond, R)
• New Hampshire (OPEN SEAT - Judd Gregg, R)
• North Carolina (Richard Burr, R)
• Ohio (OPEN SEAT - George Voinovich, R)
• Pennsylvania (Arlen Specter, R)

Leans Republican
• Louisiana (David Vitter, R)
• South Carolina (Jim DeMint, R)

Leans Democratic
• Nevada (Harry Reid, D)
• New York (Kirsten Gillibrand, D)
• Wisconsin (Russ Feingold, D)

Republican Favored
• Arizona (John McCain, R)
• Georgia (Johnny Isakson, R)
• Kansas (OPEN SEAT - Sam Brownback, R)
• South Dakota (John Thune, R)

Democrat Favored
• Arkansas (Blanche Lincoln, D)
• Colorado (Michael Bennet, D)
• Delaware (Ted Kaufman, D)

Safe Republican
• Alabama (Richard Shelby, R)
• Alaska (Lisa Murkowski, R)
• Idaho (Mike Crapo, R)
• Iowa (Chuck Grassley, R)   
• Oklahoma (Tom Coburn, R)
• Utah (Bob Bennett, R)

Safe Democrat
• California (Barbara Boxer, D)
• Hawaii (Daniel Inouye, D)
• Indiana (Evan Bayh, D)
• Maryland (Barbara Mikulski, D)
• New York (Chuck Schumer, D)
• North Dakota (Byron Dorgan, D)
• Oregon (Ron Wyden, D)
• Vermont (Patrick Leahy, D)
• Washington (Patty Murray, D)

[Lunar]

no clear favorites in FL, MO, NH,  IL, PA, and KY, while South Carolina is only "lean" ...  that list is too "safe" to be legititimate

[HAnnA MArin County]

Don't hate the messenger - I just report it as I see it, but I do agree that the South Carolina rating is a bit strange. DeMint is the most conservative member of the U.S. Senate and given the relatively red nature of South Carolina's electorate, he should be a shoo-in for reelection. I knew David Vitter was vulnerable, but not DeMint.

Wisconsin also surprises me. I would've expected Russ Feingold to be under the Safe Democratic column. He's one of the most liberal members of the U.S. Senate and Wisconsin voters generally tend to like that.

[Lunar]

Feingold could be overtaken in a wave year.  I love the messenger don't worrs

[Ronnie]

I agree with Lunar, Congressional Quarterly is playing these ratings way too safe.

[The Ex-Factor]

I really question whether Reid or Feingold is more vulnerable than Bennet.

[Holmes]

Are they assuming no one will be primaried?

[You kip if you want to...]

Are they assuming no one will be primaried?

Looking at Illinois, Connecticut and Pennsylvania, yeah they are.

Wisconsin also surprises me. I would've expected Russ Feingold to be under the Safe Democratic column. He's one of the most liberal members of the U.S. Senate and Wisconsin voters generally tend to like that.

Feingold's seat has been lean since he first became a senator considering for his 3 elections his results have been 53%, 51% and 55% in '92, '98 and '04 respectivly.

[Padfoot]

I really question whether Reid or Feingold is more vulnerable than Bennet.

I agree.  Feingold's last performance 2004, while not an overwhelming victory, is still fairly impressive considering he out performed Kerry by 6 points and won by 11.  In addition to that, you have the dramatic swing Wisconsin took in 2008 as compared to other oft mentioned swing states:

        '04 Margin     '08 Margin    Swing to D                 
CO       4.67 R           8.95 D          13.62
FL        5.01 R           2.81 D           7.82
IA        0.67 R           9.53 D          10.20
MO      7.20 R           0.13 R            7.06
NV       2.59 R          12.49 D         15.08
NH       1.37 D          9.61 D            8.24
NM       0.79 R         15.13 D         15.92
OH       2.11 R          4.59 D            6.69
PA        2.50 R         10.32 D          7.82
WI        0.38 D        13.90 D         13.52

Nevada also stands out on this list.  With such strong showings for Obama in 2008 it seems highly unlikely to me that two multi-term incumbents would be at higher risk than an appointee in Colorado who has never run for statewide office.  Granted, Feingold and Reid are high profile Senators on the national stage which puts them at a higher risk than most other incumbents but Bennett is completely untested and Colorado and Congressional Republicans are "enjoying" some extremely low approval ratings at the moment.  I just can't see how Feingold and Reid are anything less than "favored" as opposed to "leans"