Congressional Quarterly Releases Gubernatorial Forecasts for 2009-2010

[HAnnA MArin County]

Here are Congressional Quarterly (CQ)'s first and very early race forecasts for the upcoming gubernatorial elections in 2009 and 2010, released as of Saturday, April 25, 2009:

Tossups/No Clear Favorites
• Michigan (OPEN SEAT - Jennifer Granholm, D - Term Limited)
• Minnesota (Tim Pawlenty, R - May run for reelection)
• Nevada (Jim Gibbons, R - May run for reelection)
• New Jersey (Jon Corzine, D - Running for reelection) [2009]
• Pennsylvania (OPEN SEAT - Ed Rendell, D - Term Limited)
• Rhode Island (OPEN SEAT - Donald Carcieri, R - Term Limited)
• Virginia (OPEN SEAT - Tim Kaine, D - Term Limited) [2009]
• Wyoming (POSSIBLY OPEN SEAT - Dave Freudenthal, D - May run for reelection)

Leans Republican
• Alabama (OPEN SEAT - Bob Riley, R - Term Limited)
• Arizona (Jan Brewer, R - May run for reelection)
• Oklahoma (OPEN SEAT - C. Brad Henry, D - Term Limited)
• South Carolina (OPEN SEAT - Mark Sanford, R - Term Limited)
• Tennessee (OPEN SEAT - Phil Bredesen, D - Term Limited)
• Texas (Rick Perry, R - Running for reelection)
• Vermont (Jim Douglas, R - May run for reelection)

Leans Democratic
• California (OPEN SEAT - Arnold Schwarzenegger, R - Term Limited)
• Colorado (Bill Ritter, D - May run for reelection)
• Illinois (Pat Quinn, D - Running for reelection)
• Iowa (Chet Culver, D - May run for reelection)
• Maine (OPEN SEAT - John Baldacci, D - Term Limited)
• Massachusetts (Deval Patrick, D - Running for reelection)
• New York (David Paterson, D - Running for reelection)
• Oregon (OPEN SEAT - Ted Kulongoski, D - Term Limited)
• Wisconsin (Jim Doyle, D - May run for reelection)

Republican Favored
• Alaska (Sarah Palin, R - May run for reelection)
• Connecticut (M. Jodi Rell, R - Running for reelection)
• Florida (Charlie Crist, R - May run for reelection)
• Georgia (OPEN SEAT - Sonny Perdue, R - Term Limited)
• Idaho (Butch Otter, R - May run for reelection)
• Kansas (Mark Parkinson, D - Not running for reelection)
• South Dakota (OPEN SEAT - Mike Rounds, R - Term Limited)

Democrat Favored
• Hawaii (OPEN SEAT - Linda Lingle, R - Term Limited)
• New Mexico (OPEN SEAT - Bill Richardson, D - Term Limited)
• Ohio (Ted Strickland, D - May run for reelection)

Safe Republican
• Nebraska (Dave Heineman, R - May run for reelection)

Safe Democrat
• Arkansas (Mike Beebe, D - May run for reelection)
• Maryland (Martin O'Malley, D - May run for reelection)
• New Hampshire (John Lynch, D - May run for reelection)

[Kaine for Senate '18]

I wouldn't call MD or NH safe for the Democrats.

[Lunar]

I'm amused by this thread's title

also, CQ has got to figure out what to do with Independents like Rhode Island

[HAnnA MArin County]

I personally would shift Maryland into the "Democrat Favored" category because I read somewhere that O'Malley's numbers dropped after he raised taxes. Still, the Republicans don't have many options in this very blue state and until they do, I think it will remain safe. Maybe Bob Ehlrich or however you spell his name will run again for a rematch against O'Malley.

As for New Hampshire, I'd keep it safe. John Lynch is extremely popular up there and the state has become increasingly bluer in recent elections.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

If Ehrlich runs again, Maryland is probably a tossup with a slight Dem lean. Otherwise it's Dem favored, because the next best candidate is Anne Arundel County Executive John Leopold (who, oddly enough, used to be a Hawaii state legislature and unsuccessfully ran for Governor of Hawaii in 1978), and after that there's basically nobody of note. State legislature is up, so it will probably be harder to convince any legislators to give up their seats for a shot at O'Malley. Regardless, O'Malley is unpopular enough to where I wouldn't call him safe.

[Joe Biden 2020]

Oklahoma should be moved from Lean Republican to Lean Democrat.

[Padfoot]

Oklahoma should be moved from Lean Republican to Lean Democrat.

Do you have a viable (and declared) Democratic candidate or are we just going to have to trust your knowledge as a self-proclaimed "expert" on Oklahoma as usual?

[Brittain33]

Oklahoma should be moved from Lean Republican to Lean Democrat.

Do you have a viable (and declared) Democratic candidate or are we just going to have to trust your knowledge as a self-proclaimed "expert" on Oklahoma as usual?

I think the Dem Lt. Gov. has declared. Jari something.

[Brittain33]

I wouldn't call MD or NH safe for the Democrats.

NH: look at Lynch's approval numbers.
MD: Republicans have won one gubernatorial race there in 30-odd years, and their only potential candidate is the guy who lost in '06.

[Keystone Phil]

PA is Dem favored if Wagner runs and is nominated. It will be Lean Republican (maybe Republican favored) if Knox is nominated (on the Dem side).

[Joe Biden 2020]

Oklahoma should be moved from Lean Republican to Lean Democrat.

Do you have a viable (and declared) Democratic candidate or are we just going to have to trust your knowledge as a self-proclaimed "expert" on Oklahoma as usual?

I think the Dem Lt. Gov. has declared. Jari something.

Yes, Lt Gov Jari Askins is running and she is immensely popular in the state.  Dem Atty Gen Drew Edmondson is also running and he, too, is immensely popular.

It will definitely be a close primary and a close race, but I don't see the Democrats having a real bloody primary and I forsee the loser graciously backing the winner in the general.  On the other hand, I see a potentially fiery primary on the Republican side with Fmr Lt Gov Mary Fallin possibly facing Fmr Rep. JC Watts, Jr.  Currently Fallin is the only one declared.  Other Democrats could be State Treasurer Scott Meacham and State Sen and 2008 US Senate nominee Andrew Rice.  Other Republicans could be State Sen. Randy Brogden (Owasso) and 2002 Indy Candidate Gary Richardson.

[muon2]

Quinn told an editorial board he will run for reelection, and AG Madigan continues to talk like a candidate for Gov as well. Quinn's positives are still good despite his unpopular tax proposal to fix the budget. That shapes up for a dandy primary on the Dem side.

At this point there is still a lot of jockeying for position on the GOP side. Some depends on Kirk's decision about running for Gov or Senate. Others are looking at the whole list of statewide races to see what looks best.

[DownWithTheLeft]

Finally they acknowledge Corzine sucks

[Hash]

NH safe for the Democrats.

2008 results:

John Lynch (Democratic)  70.15%
Joe Kenney (Republican) 27.61%

Latest approval:

Approve 70%
Disapprove 15%

Yeah, he's definitely not safe.

lol Ben

[HappyWarrior]

I don't think O'Malley is safe but still think he will win reelection unless he faces a strong primary challenge and there are no really strong candidates to steal the spot from him who seem like they would try. I wish someone would because he has had an attrocious term but sadly it does not looks like it is meant to be.  DEMOCRAT FAVORED

[hcallega]

Martin O'Malley is awful, but there is no stopping him (in the Democratic Primary). I for one would vote for Bob Ehrlich in 2010. I've met him, and hes a great guy. While O'Malley's father in law (AG Joe Curran) is one of the best, Martin is a lying, cheating, Bill Clinton rip off.

[HAnnA MArin County]

Oklahoma should be moved from Lean Republican to Lean Democrat.

I think the reason why CQ placed Oklahoma into the Lean Republican category is similar to the situation in Tennessee. You have two relatively popular and very conservative Democratic governors in OK and TN (Henry and Bredesen), two of the few states in the nation that swung Republican in 2008 - meaning, states where McCain performed better than Bush did in 2004. These two states are becoming more Republican for whatever reason and I think that gives the Republican candidates a slight edge in these vacant seats.

[Joe Biden 2020]

Oklahoma should be moved from Lean Republican to Lean Democrat.

I think the reason why CQ placed Oklahoma into the Lean Republican category is similar to the situation in Tennessee. You have two relatively popular and very conservative Democratic governors in OK and TN (Henry and Bredesen), two of the few states in the nation that swung Republican in 2008 - meaning, states where McCain performed better than Bush did in 2004. These two states are becoming more Republican for whatever reason and I think that gives the Republican candidates a slight edge in these vacant seats.

I can see that, and I'm not suprised we're in the lean GOP category, but I just think the odds favor the Democrats next year.  Actually, McCain only scored 16 more votes than Bush did in 2004 in Oklahoma.  The McCain/Obama tally was the same as Bush/Kerry - 66/34.  I don't think you can really call that a trend in either direction, that's more staying put.  I know that most states trended more to the left and that makes staying put look like trending right, but in terms of raw numbers we didn't trend anywhere.  Now, granted, 2010 won't be nearly as lopsided as 2006 was when Henry slaughtered Istook, but it should still be a Democratic win.

[SamInTheSouth]

Oklahoma should be moved from Lean Republican to Lean Democrat.

LOL!  That's ridiculous.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Status change FL to TU, with Sink in she will be hard to beat.  Dems gain HI,CA,RI and FL

[Brittain33]

Status change FL to TU, with Sink in she will be hard to beat. 

Why do you think Sink will be hard to beat? I think she's a strong candidate, but any Republican candidate for governor in that state starts out with a strong tailwind.

[Saxwsylvania]

Oklahoma should be moved from Lean Republican to Lean Democrat.

I think the reason why CQ placed Oklahoma into the Lean Republican category is similar to the situation in Tennessee. You have two relatively popular and very conservative Democratic governors in OK and TN (Henry and Bredesen), two of the few states in the nation that swung Republican in 2008 - meaning, states where McCain performed better than Bush did in 2004. These two states are becoming more Republican for whatever reason and I think that gives the Republican candidates a slight edge in these vacant seats.

I can see that, and I'm not suprised we're in the lean GOP category, but I just think the odds favor the Democrats next year.  Actually, McCain only scored 16 more votes than Bush did in 2004 in Oklahoma.  The McCain/Obama tally was the same as Bush/Kerry - 66/34.  I don't think you can really call that a trend in either direction, that's more staying put.  I know that most states trended more to the left and that makes staying put look like trending right, but in terms of raw numbers we didn't trend anywhere.  Now, granted, 2010 won't be nearly as lopsided as 2006 was when Henry slaughtered Istook, but it should still be a Democratic win.

BushOklahoma, that's exactly what a trend is.  Even if Oklahoma swung to the Democrats by 2%, that would still be a trend because that's less than the national average.  It is very telling about Oklahoma that it is one of the few states that got more Republican.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

She has populist appeal like Betty Castor and Jean Carnahan and Claire McCaskill and Robyn Carnahan. Just like they felt buyers remorse concerning Jim Talent over Carnahan with Clair, I think the same will very well hold true concerning Betty Castor with Mel Martinez concerning Sink. She will defeat any Republican challenger that's not name Bush or Crist.

[Saxwsylvania]

She has populist appeal like Betty Castor and Jean Carnahan and Claire McCaskill and Robyn Carnahan. Just like they felt buyers remorse concerning Jim Talent over Carnahan with Clair, I think the same will very well hold true concerning Betty Castor with Mel Martinez concerning Sink. She will defeat any Republican challenger that's not name Bush or Crist.

Sink is overrated.  And how would buyer's remorse from a Senate seat in 2004 translate to victory in a gubernatorial race in 2010?  It doesn't make sense.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

She has populist appeal like Betty Castor and Jean Carnahan and Claire McCaskill and Robyn Carnahan. Just like they felt buyers remorse concerning Jim Talent over Carnahan with Clair, I think the same will very well hold true concerning Betty Castor with Mel Martinez concerning Sink. She will defeat any Republican challenger that's not name Bush or Crist.

Sink is overrated.  And how would buyer's remorse from a Senate seat in 2004 translate to victory in a gubernatorial race in 2010?  It doesn't make sense.

You tend to forget that Mel Martinez was Bush's HUD secretary.  Bush won Florida in 2004 by 5 pts and he carried Mel Martinez to a small victory. Bush and the GOP is veryunpopular and caused Obama to wiin  FL.  I think that the Dems should do very well in FL just like Bush did in 2004.

And the only two names that were able to win was either Bush or Crist or someone who was backed by Bush. Who are the republicans going to run Bill McCullum who was very unpopular in the impeachment of Bill Clinton and ran statewide in 2000 and lost. He is a joke.