Is Arizona in Play for the Democrats?

[HoopsCubs]

While I think the race will be close in Arizona, it seems unlikely to me that Kerry or Edwards will beat Bush in November.  Still, here is an interesting link/poll from Arizona State University.

http://www.kaet.asu.edu/horizon/poll/2004/2-26-04.htm

Kerry 46
Bush 44
Undecided 10

While taking polls now may make little sense, as a Democrat, it is kind of cool to see an Arizona poll showing a Democrat in the lead.   I don't remember too many instances in my lifetime that a Democratic Presidential candidate led a Republican incumbent in Arizona.

Hoops

[California Dreamer]

of course AZ is in play

Bush only won it by 5.6% and Nader got a couple of percent...might not get tht this time.
Plus they just elected a Dem
Plus they there are more dem leaning lations in 2004

If Kerry won every Gore State plus Arizona he will be President (no need for any Southern states at all...dont even need W. Virgina and N. Hampshire which are Kerry lean anyway)

I think while everyone is obsessing over the old battlegrounds in the midwest...the dems are gonna make a big push in the southwest (at least as a backup plan)

[minionofmidas]

Of course it's in play.
And of course it remains lean Rep for now.

Clinton in 1996 was the first Democrat to carry AZ since Harry Truman.

[HoopsCubs]

Of course it's in play.
And of course it remains lean Rep for now.

Clinton in 1996 was the first Democrat to carry AZ since Harry Truman.

But, would Clinton have won Arizona if Perot had not been in the race?  Probably not, right?  If I remember, Clinton had 46.5, Dole had 44.5, Perot had 8.0 and others had 1.0.  Surely, had Perot not been in the race, 75% of Perot voters would have voted for Dole.

Did anyone ever do a study as to the 2nd choice probabilities for Perot voters?  I seem to recall that 4 out of every 5 Perot voters would have chosen Dole as 2nd choice, but I could be totally off.    


Hoops

[minionofmidas]

In 1992, they'd have split roughly 50-50 (those who would have voted)
In 1996, the vast majority would've preferred Dole. Although I guess there's still some who wouldn't have voted, so Clinton wins narrowly (but not in AZ). Plus, the race would have been close in that case, turnout higher, and Clinton would have been a net beneficiary of that.

[MarkDel]

I have to say that due to the changing status of the electorate in Arizona...yes...this state is in play for the Democrats in 2004. I still think it is extremely likely that Bush will carry the state, but Arizona is definitely no longer safe territory for the Republicans.

[Gustaf]

Arizona is lean-tossup.

[© tweed]

Arizona leans GOP, but leans Kerry if he picks Governor Richardson.

[The Vorlon]

While I think the race will be close in Arizona, it seems unlikely to me that Kerry or Edwards will beat Bush in November.  Still, here is an interesting link/poll from Arizona State University.

http://www.kaet.asu.edu/horizon/poll/2004/2-26-04.htm

Kerry 46
Bush 44
Undecided 10

While taking polls now may make little sense, as a Democrat, it is kind of cool to see an Arizona poll showing a Democrat in the lead.   I don't remember too many instances in my lifetime that a Democratic Presidential candidate led a Republican incumbent in Arizona.

Hoops

There is a surveyUSA poll recently showing Bush up 9.

http://www.surveyusa.com/2004_Elections/AZ040319president.pdf


I am, however, having serious concerns about the results Suvey USA is producing.

Their poll show Kerry +10 in Michigan was was out, the sample was clearly way skewed with too many democrats, similarly the Arizona Poll had way to may republicans.

Arizona was quite close in 2000, and while Bush does do fairly well for a Republican with Hispanics, fairly well means 40% when you are a republican.

This one is still "lean" bush, but would not call it solid by any means.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

If Kerry picks McCain, he will win Arizona.  
If Kerry picks Richardson, he has a chance, but not that much better than with anyone else.  
Otherwise, I think Arizona will probably go to Bush.  And it will probably be the last time Arizona votes for a Republican presidential candidate for a while.

[classical liberal]

04 or maybe 08 will be the last time the country votes for a Republican president.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

04 or maybe 08 will be the last time the country votes for a Republican president.

Wow ur pessimistic.....

[muon2]

I think that AZ is similar to CO. Both lean R, but the right campaign puts them into play. Also, both states voted 51% for Bush in 2000.  Nader was a bigger factor in CO (5%) than in AZ (3%), but Bush has to look at his base as that initial 51% from 2000.

[angus]

Nice map.  Did you get that from the US Census Bureau?  If so, do they have one reflecting today's electoral votes per state?

[ShapeShifter]

If Kerry picks McCain, he will win Arizona.  
If Kerry picks Richardson, he has a chance, but not that much better than with anyone else.  
Otherwise, I think Arizona will probably go to Bush.  And it will probably be the last time Arizona votes for a Republican presidential candidate for a while.

you still dreaming of a Kerry/McCain ticket?

[muon2]

Nice map.  Did you get that from the US Census Bureau?  If so, do they have one reflecting today's electoral votes per state?

Thank you, it's my own design. I started in '76 doing one on graph paper for that election - I have no idea where it is today. I continue to draw them as if they were graph paper pixels, so I can have one pixel per EV.

The map you are looking at in my signature is the current  EV map, but colored based on the 2000 vote.

[MN-Troy]

Arizona leans GOP, but leans Kerry if he picks Governor Richardson.

I'm curious to know why if Kerry picks Richardson for his running mate that his chances of carrying Arizona increases?

[Rococo4]

I would say very marginally if any.......for instance if Kerry took Bayh, that would have 0 impact in Ohio.  I think Richardson just gets NM for Kerry, thats it

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

If Kerry picks McCain, he will win Arizona.  
If Kerry picks Richardson, he has a chance, but not that much better than with anyone else.  
Otherwise, I think Arizona will probably go to Bush.  And it will probably be the last time Arizona votes for a Republican presidential candidate for a while.

you still dreaming of a Kerry/McCain ticket?

I honestly think there's as good a chance it will be McCain as there is for any other specific person.   I'd say there's around a 20% each for McCain and Edwards.  Note that means a 60% chance it won't be one of them...but no one else comes close to 20%.

[opebo]

Arizona is not, realistically, in play for the Democrats.

[classical liberal]

Why do peope think that there is even any positive non-zero chance that McCain would run as a Democrat.  For all of his egotism he's still republican to the core.

[zachman]

Why do peope think that there is even any positive non-zero chance that McCain would run as a Democrat.  For all of his egotism he's still republican to the core.

He's going to go on a press blitz soon with his steroid bill. He's still going for ttention and he's going for more and more every month, although the odds that he'd pull some party switch are still very low.

[Michael Z]

Why do peope think that there is even any positive non-zero chance that McCain would run as a Democrat.  For all of his egotism he's still republican to the core.

I agree. McCain and Kerry may be buddies, and sure as heck McCain can't stand Bush, but I can't see him leaving the GOP and being Kerry's running mate.

Besides, he's useful enough for Dems as a Republican insider.

[agcatter]

very useful.  Dems and the liberal press know how to stroke his ego.  They play to his ego and play him like a fiddle.