Is Arizona in Play for the Democrats?

[HoopsCubs]

While I think the race will be close in Arizona, it seems unlikely to me that Kerry or Edwards will beat Bush in November.  Still, here is an interesting link/poll from Arizona State University.

http://www.kaet.asu.edu/horizon/poll/2004/2-26-04.htm

Kerry 46
Bush 44
Undecided 10

While taking polls now may make little sense, as a Democrat, it is kind of cool to see an Arizona poll showing a Democrat in the lead.   I don't remember too many instances in my lifetime that a Democratic Presidential candidate led a Republican incumbent in Arizona.

Hoops

[HoopsCubs]

Of course it's in play.
And of course it remains lean Rep for now.

Clinton in 1996 was the first Democrat to carry AZ since Harry Truman.

But, would Clinton have won Arizona if Perot had not been in the race?  Probably not, right?  If I remember, Clinton had 46.5, Dole had 44.5, Perot had 8.0 and others had 1.0.  Surely, had Perot not been in the race, 75% of Perot voters would have voted for Dole.

Did anyone ever do a study as to the 2nd choice probabilities for Perot voters?  I seem to recall that 4 out of every 5 Perot voters would have chosen Dole as 2nd choice, but I could be totally off.    


Hoops