While I think the race will be close in Arizona, it seems unlikely to me that Kerry or Edwards will beat Bush in November. Still, here is an interesting link/poll from Arizona State University.
http://www.kaet.asu.edu/horizon/poll/2004/2-26-04.htm
Kerry 46
Bush 44
Undecided 10
While taking polls now may make little sense, as a Democrat, it is kind of cool to see an Arizona poll showing a Democrat in the lead. I don't remember too many instances in my lifetime that a Democratic Presidential candidate led a Republican incumbent in Arizona.
Hoops
There is a surveyUSA poll recently showing Bush up 9.
http://www.surveyusa.com/2004_Elections/AZ040319president.pdf
I am, however, having
serious concerns about the results Suvey USA is producing.
Their poll show Kerry +10 in Michigan was was out, the sample was clearly way skewed with too many democrats, similarly the Arizona Poll had way to may republicans.
Arizona was quite close in 2000, and while Bush does do fairly well for a Republican with Hispanics, fairly well means 40% when you are a republican.
This one is still "lean" bush, but would not call it solid by any means.
