White swing map

[Senator Sbane]

Has anyone made a swing map for whites from 2004 to 2008? I am particularly interested in southern results.......

[Nym90]

It's impossible to find racial results for anything below the state level, since such results are only available from exit polls.

Though some counties are almost exclusively white, and thus the results are pretty obvious there.

[Senator Sbane]

I was actually asking for swing amongst whites by state, not county. That would be pretty hard. I know I can figure this out by looking at exit polls but I was wondering if anyone had made a map already, perhaps on another thread.

[Nym90]

Ah, my bad. To my knowledge this hasn't been done. Obviously exit polls are not necessarily tremendously reliable but I agree that it would be interesting.

[phk]

I think its been done before.

Hawaii had the strongest swing amongst Whites and I think Alabama or Louisanna had the strongest swing away.

[Tender Branson]

Table (according to CNN 2004 & 2008 Exit Polls, sorted by Swing/Trend:

[Senator Sbane]

Thanks!!! I knew this had been done but I couldn't find it.

[JoeyJoeJoe]

Republicans actually did re-redistrict Colorado in 2003.  They split Pueblo County to make the 3rd much more Republican, for one.  A court overturned it before the 2004 elections, since the state constitution explicitly bars redistricting more than once per decade.

For Louisiana, maybe Kerry got some of the white Catholic vote, which could explain the trend away from Obama there.

[Smash255]

Republicans actually did re-redistrict Colorado in 2003.  They split Pueblo County to make the 3rd much more Republican, for one.  A court overturned it before the 2004 elections, since the state constitution explicitly bars redistricting more than once per decade.

For Louisiana, maybe Kerry got some of the white Catholic vote, which could explain the trend away from Obama there.

Kerry didn't exactly do good with the white vote in Louisiana either, quite simply Obama being black had a lot to do with it.

[phk]

Republicans actually did re-redistrict Colorado in 2003.  They split Pueblo County to make the 3rd much more Republican, for one.  A court overturned it before the 2004 elections, since the state constitution explicitly bars redistricting more than once per decade.

For Louisiana, maybe Kerry got some of the white Catholic vote, which could explain the trend away from Obama there.

Kerry didn't exactly do good with the white vote in Louisiana either, quite simply Obama being black had a lot to do with it.

Cajun's who were historically reliably Democrat were in large part responsible for the swing to McCain amongst LA Whites.

The existing Southern White Prot's are already solidly GOP (like 95%).

[Vepres]

New Mexico surprises me given Obama's margin of victory.

By the way, you could estimate what each county's white swing would be with some mathematics and census data. Way too time consuming however.

[Senator Ben]

Nevada and New Mexico are interesting considering Obama's margin of victory.  The Hispanic swing would be interesting to see as well.

[Vasall des Midas]

Nevada and New Mexico are interesting considering Obama's margin of victory. 

Margin of error madness.