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Author Topic: France 1974: what if Mitterrand vs Chaban-Delmas  (Read 1414 times)
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« on: May 12, 2009, 06:02:32 am »
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Let's imagine Chirac didn't betray Chaban inside the Gaullist movement.
Let's imagine Chaban was ahead of Giscard d'Estaing in the 1st round.

Let's imagine Chaban-Delmas, PM between 1969 and 1972, with an image of dynamism and of a social and moderate Gaullist, faced Mitterrand in the 2nd round.

Remember that, in real world, Mitterrand lost narrowly to Giscard d'Estaing (50,8-49,2).

What would have occurred in case of Chaban vs Mitterrand ?
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Scottish Robb Stark
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« Reply #1 on: May 13, 2009, 09:29:39 am »
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The election would also be extremely close, but I tend to think that Mitterrand would win. Before Giscard's surge, he had the momentum, managing to get more than 40% in the first round. A Mitterrand victory was expected by many people, though Chaban was also charismatic.
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22:15   ComradeSibboleth   this is all extremely terrible and in all respects absolutely fycking dire.

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« Reply #2 on: May 13, 2009, 03:46:03 pm »
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The election would also be extremely close, but I tend to think that Mitterrand would win. Before Giscard's surge, he had the momentum, managing to get more than 40% in the first round. A Mitterrand victory was expected by many people, though Chaban was also charismatic.

Mitterrand was above 40% in all but a few polls in the first round, and there's nothing special about that. Remember that his candidacy was supported not only by the PS (roughly 19-21%) but also the PCF (20-22%) and the MRG (1-2%). His 43% was not really momentum or anything, but more like winning the quasi-entirety of the left.
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« Reply #3 on: May 13, 2009, 03:59:56 pm »
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The election would also be extremely close, but I tend to think that Mitterrand would win. Before Giscard's surge, he had the momentum, managing to get more than 40% in the first round. A Mitterrand victory was expected by many people, though Chaban was also charismatic.

Mitterrand was above 40% in all but a few polls in the first round, and there's nothing special about that. Remember that his candidacy was supported not only by the PS (roughly 19-21%) but also the PCF (20-22%) and the MRG (1-2%). His 43% was not really momentum or anything, but more like winning the quasi-entirety of the left.

In 1965 with the same endorsements he got only 36%. The left was highly popular in the beginning of 70's, they even got more votes than the right during 1973 legislative elections ! Any candidate who starts with 43% of votes on hand has great chances of exceeding 50%.
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22:15   ComradeSibboleth   this is all extremely terrible and in all respects absolutely fycking dire.

"A reformist is someone who realizes that, when you bang your head on a wall, it's the head that breaks rather than the wall."

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« Reply #4 on: May 13, 2009, 04:26:20 pm »
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The election would also be extremely close, but I tend to think that Mitterrand would win. Before Giscard's surge, he had the momentum, managing to get more than 40% in the first round. A Mitterrand victory was expected by many people, though Chaban was also charismatic.

Mitterrand was above 40% in all but a few polls in the first round, and there's nothing special about that. Remember that his candidacy was supported not only by the PS (roughly 19-21%) but also the PCF (20-22%) and the MRG (1-2%). His 43% was not really momentum or anything, but more like winning the quasi-entirety of the left.

In 1965 with the same endorsements he got only 36%. The left was highly popular in the beginning of 70's, they even got more votes than the right during 1973 legislative elections ! Any candidate who starts with 43% of votes on hand has great chances of exceeding 50%.

So? I can't begin to describe how different the political landscape was in 1965 compared to 1974. (As a slight correction, the left didn't win more votes than the right in the 1973 election, though it did come close).

Mitterrand 's 43% was no doubt a good result, but outside of that plus the random Trot and early greenie, he needed to appeal to voters who had voted for the right in the first round. Which, judging by his performance in the runoff, he kind of did but not nearly enough.
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« Reply #5 on: May 14, 2009, 04:50:07 am »
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Mitterrand 's 43% was no doubt a good result, but outside of that plus the random Trot and early greenie, he needed to appeal to voters who had voted for the right in the first round. Which, judging by his performance in the runoff, he kind of did but not nearly enough.

Precisely, a lightly weaker mobilization around Chaban would permit Mitterrand to win the few votes he lacked to be elected.
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Robb of the House Stark, First of his Name, Lord of Winterfell and King in the North



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22:15   ComradeSibboleth   this is all extremely terrible and in all respects absolutely fycking dire.

"A reformist is someone who realizes that, when you bang your head on a wall, it's the head that breaks rather than the wall."

Peppino, from the movie Baaria
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« Reply #6 on: May 14, 2009, 10:29:05 am »
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I think Hash is right politically and electorally, but that Antonio would have guessed right the final result.

FM had gathered all he could in the real 1st round and would have gathered the same in my scenario.
It would have been very difficult for him, in the 2nd round against Chaban, to pick 1st round voters from Giscard: sure, Giscard took some old "républicains indépendants" and "Algérie française" voters who were harsh anti-gaullists and wouldn't have voted for Chaban.

But, by 1974, FM was on a hard left path (even if it wasn't entirely sincere and if it was probably cynical, but that's not the point) and those harsh anti-gaullists would have found it difficult to vote for FM.

Nevertheless, I think Chaban would have been defeated with a razor-thin margin due to a bad campaign.
Chaban was a sort of amateur politician (un "dilettante", as we say in French) and wouldn't have been able to lead a tough and organized campaign.

What is more, Chaban and FM knew each other personally quite well: they played billard together in the same culbs in the 50s, for example. Apart from being pressed on some "common" women...., I think Chaban would have found it difficult to attack FM as tough as he should have. FM wouldn't have hesitated, on the contrary.

Maybe some gaullists ("right" or younger gaullists) would have voted FM in secret, but that would have been limited to some apparatchiks.
Giscard wouldn't have helped Chaban whom he hated.

On the other hand, Chaban's regional effect would have cost some votes in the SW, where the left is traditionally strong.

But Mitterrand would have won 50,5 - 49,5.
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« Reply #7 on: May 14, 2009, 01:58:08 pm »
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I think Hash is right politically and electorally, but that Antonio would have guessed right the final result.

FM had gathered all he could in the real 1st round and would have gathered the same in my scenario.
It would have been very difficult for him, in the 2nd round against Chaban, to pick 1st round voters from Giscard: sure, Giscard took some old "républicains indépendants" and "Algérie française" voters who were harsh anti-gaullists and wouldn't have voted for Chaban.

But, by 1974, FM was on a hard left path (even if it wasn't entirely sincere and if it was probably cynical, but that's not the point) and those harsh anti-gaullists would have found it difficult to vote for FM.

Nevertheless, I think Chaban would have been defeated with a razor-thin margin due to a bad campaign.
Chaban was a sort of amateur politician (un "dilettante", as we say in French) and wouldn't have been able to lead a tough and organized campaign.

What is more, Chaban and FM knew each other personally quite well: they played billard together in the same culbs in the 50s, for example. Apart from being pressed on some "common" women...., I think Chaban would have found it difficult to attack FM as tough as he should have. FM wouldn't have hesitated, on the contrary.

Maybe some gaullists ("right" or younger gaullists) would have voted FM in secret, but that would have been limited to some apparatchiks.
Giscard wouldn't have helped Chaban whom he hated.

On the other hand, Chaban's regional effect would have cost some votes in the SW, where the left is traditionally strong.

But Mitterrand would have won 50,5 - 49,5.

For a time, I agree with you.
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Robb of the House Stark, First of his Name, Lord of Winterfell and King in the North



Quote from: IRC
22:15   ComradeSibboleth   this is all extremely terrible and in all respects absolutely fycking dire.

"A reformist is someone who realizes that, when you bang your head on a wall, it's the head that breaks rather than the wall."

Peppino, from the movie Baaria
big bad fab
filliatre
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« Reply #8 on: May 15, 2009, 02:10:36 am »
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I think Hash is right politically and electorally, but that Antonio would have guessed right the final result.

FM had gathered all he could in the real 1st round and would have gathered the same in my scenario.
It would have been very difficult for him, in the 2nd round against Chaban, to pick 1st round voters from Giscard: sure, Giscard took some old "républicains indépendants" and "Algérie française" voters who were harsh anti-gaullists and wouldn't have voted for Chaban.

But, by 1974, FM was on a hard left path (even if it wasn't entirely sincere and if it was probably cynical, but that's not the point) and those harsh anti-gaullists would have found it difficult to vote for FM.

Nevertheless, I think Chaban would have been defeated with a razor-thin margin due to a bad campaign.
Chaban was a sort of amateur politician (un "dilettante", as we say in French) and wouldn't have been able to lead a tough and organized campaign.

What is more, Chaban and FM knew each other personally quite well: they played billard together in the same culbs in the 50s, for example. Apart from being pressed on some "common" women...., I think Chaban would have found it difficult to attack FM as tough as he should have. FM wouldn't have hesitated, on the contrary.

Maybe some gaullists ("right" or younger gaullists) would have voted FM in secret, but that would have been limited to some apparatchiks.
Giscard wouldn't have helped Chaban whom he hated.

On the other hand, Chaban's regional effect would have cost some votes in the SW, where the left is traditionally strong.

But Mitterrand would have won 50,5 - 49,5.

For a time, I agree with you.

Just because, when I analyze or try to predict (many failures...), I'm not a militant...

Many on this forum, when they "predict" or "analyze" simply say what they think, what they wish, what they politically work for.
That's a pity...

Some, like Hash or Mr Morden or Tender Branson, etc, are really honest in their analyses (even if they are also able to say what they believe in, frankly and with wit).
« Last Edit: May 16, 2009, 05:18:46 am by big bad fab »Logged

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Scottish Robb Stark
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« Reply #9 on: May 15, 2009, 11:50:25 am »
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I think Hash is right politically and electorally, but that Antonio would have guessed right the final result.

FM had gathered all he could in the real 1st round and would have gathered the same in my scenario.
It would have been very difficult for him, in the 2nd round against Chaban, to pick 1st round voters from Giscard: sure, Giscard took some old "républicains indépendants" and "Algérie française" voters who were harsh anti-gaullists and wouldn't have voted for Chaban.

But, by 1974, FM was on a hard left path (even if it wasn't entirely sincere and if it was probably cynical, but that's not the point) and those harsh anti-gaullists would have found it difficult to vote for FM.

Nevertheless, I think Chaban would have been defeated with a razor-thin margin due to a bad campaign.
Chaban was a sort of amateur politician (un "dilettante", as we say in French) and wouldn't have been able to lead a tough and organized campaign.

What is more, Chaban and FM knew each other personally quite well: they played billard together in the same culbs in the 50s, for example. Apart from being pressed on some "common" women...., I think Chaban would have found it difficult to attack FM as tough as he should have. FM wouldn't have hesitated, on the contrary.

Maybe some gaullists ("right" or younger gaullists) would have voted FM in secret, but that would have been limited to some apparatchiks.
Giscard wouldn't have helped Chaban whom he hated.

On the other hand, Chaban's regional effect would have cost some votes in the SW, where the left is traditionally strong.

But Mitterrand would have won 50,5 - 49,5.

For a time, I agree with you.

Just because, when I analyze or try to predict (many failures...), I'm not a militant...

Thanks a lot.

Just for information : I don't "wish" a Mitterrand presidency in 1974, because it would be a disaster : economc crisis, rise of unemployment would mean a 1981 Chirac ( or some other conservative ) landslide, followed by a french version of Reaganomics, and a left government would for another decade remain a "parenthesis" in the history of Vth Republic.

Again, thanks for the compliment.
« Last Edit: May 15, 2009, 11:55:11 am by Antonio V »Logged



Robb of the House Stark, First of his Name, Lord of Winterfell and King in the North



Quote from: IRC
22:15   ComradeSibboleth   this is all extremely terrible and in all respects absolutely fycking dire.

"A reformist is someone who realizes that, when you bang your head on a wall, it's the head that breaks rather than the wall."

Peppino, from the movie Baaria
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