Why are the Rockies swinging Dem?

[nclib]

Oldies' post and Antonio's are both very true.

Let's not forget that 2000 was a horrible year for Democrats in the Mountain West. Look, just look at the 1996-2000 trend map:



As much as Democrats might have gained from 2004 on, they aren't even close to their pre-2000 levels there.

I checked Clinton's raw 1996 numbers to see if the issue was Perot and it doesn't appear to be (mainly) that:

Trend in Dem%:

CO   5.26%
MT   -1.33%
ID   -3.05%
AZ   -3.87%
NM   -8.14%
UT   -10.41%
WY   -10.82%

I don't understand how you got these numbers.

Modified trend. I used the raw Dem % in 1996 and 2012 rather than margin for the swing. Then I subtracted 1.8% (Obama 2012 national - Clinton 1996 national) for the trend.

[Californian Tony]

Oldies' post and Antonio's are both very true.

Let's not forget that 2000 was a horrible year for Democrats in the Mountain West. Look, just look at the 1996-2000 trend map:



As much as Democrats might have gained from 2004 on, they aren't even close to their pre-2000 levels there.

I checked Clinton's raw 1996 numbers to see if the issue was Perot and it doesn't appear to be (mainly) that:

Trend in Dem%:

CO   5.26%
MT   -1.33%
ID   -3.05%
AZ   -3.87%
NM   -8.14%
UT   -10.41%
WY   -10.82%

I don't understand how you got these numbers.

Modified trend. I used the raw Dem % in 1996 and 2012 rather than margin for the swing. Then I subtracted 1.8% (Obama 2012 national - Clinton 1996 national) for the trend.

Ah, I see. Good job!

You got NM, wrong though. Fixed it and added a few neighboring States for comparison.

NV +6.63%
CO +5.26%
NM +2.01%
NE +1.28%
KS +0.11%
MT -1.33%
ID -3.05%
ND -3.23%
AZ -3.87%
SD -4.96%
UT -10.41%
WY -10.82%

Translated on a map, with 2.5% increments (ie, the normal trend scale).

[nclib]

I've changed NM on my original post (not really a Rockies state anyways). The Rockies aren't really trending Dem compared to 1996. Esp. keeping in mind that without Perot, Clinton would still have gotten some of those votes (even if most would go GOP). KS trending by only 0.11% is likely due to it being Bob Dole's home state in 1996.

[Californian Tony]

Also, here is the 1988-2008 trend (normal Atlas calculation method).

Considering the West further trended R in 2012, you can see just how much ground has been lost...

[cope1989]

Also, here is the 1988-2008 trend (normal Atlas calculation method).

Considering the West further trended R in 2012, you can see just how much ground has been lost...

Farm crisis in 1988, so Dukakis overperformed

[Californian Tony]

True... here's 1984.

It might make little sense to go that far, but Perot in the 1990s screws everything.