State Trends 2000-2012
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Author Topic: State Trends 2000-2012  (Read 5787 times)
Mehmentum
Icefire9
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« on: November 08, 2012, 12:43:45 PM »
« edited: November 08, 2012, 01:36:08 PM by Mehmentum »

The change in the margins of victory relative to popular vote between 2000 and 2012. All data is from this site's archives.

90% shading = 20 point or more gain in margin
70% shading = 10-20 point gain in margin
50% shading = 5-10 point gain in margin
30% shading = 1-5 point gain in margin
Grey = <1 gain in margin

I'm not quite sure why most states are trending Democratic despite adjusting for the popular vote of election year.  The average gain in margin is 1.2% for the democrats.  It may be because some of the largest D-trending states have 3 or 4 EVs (Vermont, Hawaii, Montana, Alaska), scewing the results of this.  Also, keep in mind that the vote is still being counted and Obama's margin is likely to go up, which would shift the relative margins accordingly.

Democrats gained (relative to the popular vote) each election in Vermont, Colorado, Virginia, North Carolina, California, Washington, Texas and Iowa.  Republicans did this in West Virginia, Tennesee, Kentucky and Missouri.

I'm suspicious of Connecticut, the Atlas says Obama won by 3%, which is very different than other websites say and doesn't make any sense given its margins in previous years.

Arizona, Alaska, and Montana really surprised me!
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #1 on: November 08, 2012, 12:58:33 PM »

Well Montana has heavier unionization and very little "right to work" legislation, which explains it's surprising D lean.
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opebo
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« Reply #2 on: November 09, 2012, 01:18:23 PM »

Wow, thanks to the OP for this excellent map - I was just wishing for such a map the other day.  Though it is certainly true that the figures for 2012 are still changing at this point.
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bgwah
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« Reply #3 on: November 09, 2012, 02:40:31 PM »

CT was 16.95 more D than the nation 2000, and 13.05 more D in 2012. Wouldn't that be a 3.9% R swing by your method? And if so shouldn't it be colored the >30% shade?
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morgieb
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« Reply #4 on: November 09, 2012, 03:57:17 PM »

CT was 16.95 more D than the nation 2000, and 13.05 more D in 2012. Wouldn't that be a 3.9% R swing by your method? And if so shouldn't it be colored the >30% shade?
Because Leip screwed up the margins.
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Rainbow_Crown
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« Reply #5 on: November 17, 2012, 11:16:02 AM »

The change in the margins of victory relative to popular vote between 2000 and 2012. All data is from this site's archives.

I'm not quite sure why most states are trending Democratic despite adjusting for the popular vote of election year.  The average gain in margin is 1.2% for the democrats.  It may be because some of the largest D-trending states have 3 or 4 EVs (Vermont, Hawaii, Montana, Alaska), scewing the results of this.  Also, keep in mind that the vote is still being counted and Obama's margin is likely to go up, which would shift the relative margins accordingly.

Democrats gained (relative to the popular vote) each election in Vermont, Colorado, Virginia, North Carolina, California, Washington, Texas and Iowa.  Republicans did this in West Virginia, Tennesee, Kentucky and Missouri.

I'm suspicious of Connecticut, the Atlas says Obama won by 3%, which is very different than other websites say and doesn't make any sense given its margins in previous years.

Arizona, Alaska, and Montana really surprised me!


Texas did not trend Democratic in each election. Obama lost by 11 in 2008 and lost by 16-17? in 2012
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Mehmentum
Icefire9
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« Reply #6 on: November 17, 2012, 09:39:39 PM »

The change in the margins of victory relative to popular vote between 2000 and 2012. All data is from this site's archives.

I'm not quite sure why most states are trending Democratic despite adjusting for the popular vote of election year.  The average gain in margin is 1.2% for the democrats.  It may be because some of the largest D-trending states have 3 or 4 EVs (Vermont, Hawaii, Montana, Alaska), scewing the results of this.  Also, keep in mind that the vote is still being counted and Obama's margin is likely to go up, which would shift the relative margins accordingly.

Democrats gained (relative to the popular vote) each election in Vermont, Colorado, Virginia, North Carolina, California, Washington, Texas and Iowa.  Republicans did this in West Virginia, Tennesee, Kentucky and Missouri.

I'm suspicious of Connecticut, the Atlas says Obama won by 3%, which is very different than other websites say and doesn't make any sense given its margins in previous years.

Arizona, Alaska, and Montana really surprised me!


Texas did not trend Democratic in each election. Obama lost by 11 in 2008 and lost by 16-17? in 2012
By trend, I mean state margin with respect to national margin.  For example, a state is has a margin of 10% for Democrats one election when the national margin is 2% for the Democrats.  In the next election the state goes 9% for the Democrats even though they lose the national PV by 5%.  In the first year, the state was 8% more Democratic than the country.  In the second, it was 14% more Democratic than the country. 

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BaldEagle1991
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« Reply #7 on: November 18, 2012, 02:06:50 PM »

The change in the margins of victory relative to popular vote between 2000 and 2012. All data is from this site's archives.

I'm not quite sure why most states are trending Democratic despite adjusting for the popular vote of election year.  The average gain in margin is 1.2% for the democrats.  It may be because some of the largest D-trending states have 3 or 4 EVs (Vermont, Hawaii, Montana, Alaska), scewing the results of this.  Also, keep in mind that the vote is still being counted and Obama's margin is likely to go up, which would shift the relative margins accordingly.

Democrats gained (relative to the popular vote) each election in Vermont, Colorado, Virginia, North Carolina, California, Washington, Texas and Iowa.  Republicans did this in West Virginia, Tennesee, Kentucky and Missouri.

I'm suspicious of Connecticut, the Atlas says Obama won by 3%, which is very different than other websites say and doesn't make any sense given its margins in previous years.

Arizona, Alaska, and Montana really surprised me!


Texas did not trend Democratic in each election. Obama lost by 11 in 2008 and lost by 16-17? in 2012


It also trended D in 2004 and 2008. So that evens it out.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #8 on: November 19, 2012, 07:52:47 PM »

If someone's interested, here I did a few maps of the long-term trends in past elections till 2008. Will update those for 2012 as soon as we get the final results.
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SUSAN CRUSHBONE
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« Reply #9 on: November 20, 2012, 09:25:03 AM »

Arizona, Alaska, and Montana really surprised me!


For Arizona, could there maybe have been some PUMA-type angry McCain supporters refusing to vote for Bush?
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nclib
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« Reply #10 on: November 25, 2012, 10:19:14 PM »
« Edited: January 04, 2013, 09:36:33 PM by nclib »

Swing/Trend from 2004 to 2012:



Red = Trend Dem
Green = Swing Dem, trend GOP
Blue = Swing GOP
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Knives
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« Reply #11 on: November 25, 2012, 10:31:23 PM »

What's the difference between swing and trend?
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SUSAN CRUSHBONE
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« Reply #12 on: November 26, 2012, 01:32:06 AM »

What's the difference between swing and trend?

Can someone tell me the difference between swing and trend? Probably a stupid question, but it would sure be helpful. Tongue
The swing is the change in absolute margin, the trend is the change in relative margin to the nation as a whole.

Ex. Iowa:
2008 - +9.5 O (national +7.3 O)
2012 - +5.8 O (national +3.1 O)
Swing: +3.7 R
Trend: +0.5 O
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #13 on: November 26, 2012, 01:36:35 AM »

People need to familiarize themselves with Leip's Atlas before they even think of registering here. There is really no excuse for not knowing what swing and trend are. Tongue
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #14 on: November 27, 2012, 10:33:27 PM »

Swing/Trend from 2004 to 2012:



Red = Trend Dem
Green = Swing Dem, trend GOP
Blue = Swing GOP

This one is fascinating.  It suggests that AZ really won't be that interesting anytime soon.  NH is a bit surprising, but they are naturally anti-incumbent.
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Snowstalker Mk. II
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« Reply #15 on: November 28, 2012, 12:53:10 PM »

I'm surprised Obama did as well as he did in New Hampshire.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #16 on: November 29, 2012, 05:51:51 PM »

Yeah, Romney was probably the right candidate for that State.

(well, he was the right candidate for MA too, and yet... Roll Eyes)
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nclib
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« Reply #17 on: January 04, 2013, 09:38:18 PM »

I updated my 2004-2012 map to reflect changes (ME, MI, and FL from Red to Green), and the OP should do the same to the 2000-2012 map.
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hopper
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« Reply #18 on: January 08, 2013, 07:41:58 PM »

Should do a 2008-2012 map.
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hopper
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« Reply #19 on: January 08, 2013, 07:46:10 PM »
« Edited: January 08, 2013, 08:38:05 PM by hopper »

The change in the margins of victory relative to popular vote between 2000 and 2012. All data is from this site's archives.

90% shading = 20 point or more gain in margin
70% shading = 10-20 point gain in margin
50% shading = 5-10 point gain in margin
30% shading = 1-5 point gain in margin
Grey = <1 gain in margin

I'm not quite sure why most states are trending Democratic despite adjusting for the popular vote of election year.  The average gain in margin is 1.2% for the democrats.  It may be because some of the largest D-trending states have 3 or 4 EVs (Vermont, Hawaii, Montana, Alaska), scewing the results of this.  Also, keep in mind that the vote is still being counted and Obama's margin is likely to go up, which would shift the relative margins accordingly.

Democrats gained (relative to the popular vote) each election in Vermont, Colorado, Virginia, North Carolina, California, Washington, Texas and Iowa.  Republicans did this in West Virginia, Tennesee, Kentucky and Missouri.

I'm suspicious of Connecticut, the Atlas says Obama won by 3%, which is very different than other websites say and doesn't make any sense given its margins in previous years.

Arizona, Alaska, and Montana really surprised me!

New York, New Jersey, Michigan and Connecticut didn't move it all. I guess those states are as Dem as they can get in terms of a vote floor. Mississippi swinging Dem is a surprise too. Montana swinging Dem as much as did is a pleasent surprise too but the state has had 2 Dem Star Politicians in Schweitzer and Tester since the mid 2000's come into high office.  Same thing with Alaska but they don't have any Dem politicians on the level of a Schweitzer or even  a Tester.

Whats up with Texas swinging Dem?
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hopper
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« Reply #20 on: January 08, 2013, 08:36:52 PM »
« Edited: January 08, 2013, 08:44:59 PM by hopper »

Swing/Trend from 2004 to 2012:



Red = Trend Dem
Green = Swing Dem, trend GOP
Blue = Swing GOP
Mississippi trending D is a shock. SC must be trending D very lightly if it is trending D. Ditto the same with Idaho.

Maine trending GOP is a shock too.
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nclib
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« Reply #21 on: January 14, 2013, 08:39:22 PM »

MS is due to highest black %, and white Dem support that couldn't get any lower. ME was very close to the average swing, and the French-bashing in 2004 played a role.
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JerryArkansas
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« Reply #22 on: January 18, 2013, 07:30:47 AM »

just bumping this so the latest post isn't that thing
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nclib
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« Reply #23 on: January 18, 2013, 01:40:17 PM »

just bumping this so the latest post isn't that thing

Huh
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