How did the Anderson vote break down in 1980?

[CJK]

I've always heard that Anderson took away more from Carter than Reagan in 1980, but I don't know how much. Was there ever any sort of statistical breakdown on how Anderson voters would have voted if he wasn't on the ticket?

[Nym90]

It's impossible to know for sure, and the specific question of who Anderson voters would've voted for if he wasn't on the ballot wasn't asked in the exit polls.

About the best way to extrapolate is from the ideology question. 11 percent of self-identified liberals voted for Anderson, compared to 4 percent of self-identified conservatives. So I think it's safe to say he took at least 1-2 points nationally away from Carter, though probably not more than that. Many voters who vote third party would probably stay home entirely in a 2 way race.

[Nym90]

And BTW, in 1992, Perot got 18 percent of the votes of liberals and 18 percent of the votes of conservatives. For those who argue Perot cost Bush the election and all that nonsense.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

1.  Welcome to the forum

2.  Nym is absolutely correct, but you also have to think about where the votes were.  I think it's pretty sfae to say Anderson cost Carter ME, NY, and MA, and likely in VT, DE, and WI.  In all of those states, Anderson's vote total far exceeded the margin of victory for Reagan, and I think it's likely that enough of Anderson's voters would've turned to Carter for him to win those states.