Mexican data say migration to U.S. has plummeted

[Linus Van Pelt]

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/05/15/us/15immig.html?hp

MEXICALI, Mexico — Census data from the Mexican government indicate an extraordinary decline in the number of Mexican immigrants going to the United States.

The recently released data show that about 226,000 fewer people emigrated from Mexico to other countries during the year that ended in August 2008 than during the previous year, a decline of 25 percent. All but a very small fraction of emigration, both legal and illegal, from Mexico is to the United States.

Because of surging immigration, the Mexican-born population in the United States has grown steeply year after year since the early 1990s, dipping briefly only after the attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, census data in both countries show.

Mexican and American researchers say that the current decline, which has also been manifested in a decrease in arrests along the border, is largely a result of Mexicans’ deciding to delay illegal crossings because of the lack of jobs in the ailing American economy.

The trend emerged clearly with the onset of the recession and, demographers say, provides new evidence that illegal immigrants from Mexico, by far the biggest source of unauthorized migration to the United States, are drawn by jobs and respond to a sinking labor market by staying away.

“If jobs are available, people come,” said Jeffrey S. Passel, senior demographer at the Pew Hispanic Center, a nonpartisan research group in Washington. “If jobs are not available, people don’t come.”

The net outflow of migrants from Mexico — those who left minus those who returned — fell by about half in the year that ended in August 2008 from the preceding year. The figures are based on detailed household interviews conducted quarterly by the census agency in Mexico, the National Institute of Statistics and Geography.

[Various anecdotes follow about immigrants, not cut and pasted to save you a full cut-and-paste job, but you can read the rest of the article at the link].

To be expected, but interesting to see it confirmed nonetheless.

[Sam Spade]

Yep.  Not terribly surprising.

I expect it to continue.

[Marokai Backbeat]

Somewhere in the world, Lou Dobbs just came.

[MaxQue]

Somewhere in the world, Lou Dobbs just came.

I learned than he is not a far right person! He is quite liberal on certain things. He is pro-choice and was against DOMA.

[Ban my account ffs!]

Immigration from Mexico will probably fall a lot, then recover a bit during the next economic expansion, but ultimately it will taper off and largely stop within the next 20 years or so.

[Torie]

Immigration from Mexico will probably fall a lot, then recover a bit during the next economic expansion, but ultimately it will taper off and largely stop within the next 20 years or so.

It won't stop, but I think it will get increasingly middle class. With the fall in fertility rates, and not that great an additional increase in median per capita income in Mexico, the higher wages for working class folks in the US will cease to be so attractive. Folks in general love living in Mexico, as long as they can achieve a reasonable albeit modest standard of living. I learned a lot about Mexico when I went there a couple of times in the past year with my gardener.

[Linus Van Pelt]

Immigration from Mexico will probably fall a lot, then recover a bit during the next economic expansion, but ultimately it will taper off and largely stop within the next 20 years or so.

It won't stop, but I think it will get increasingly middle class. With the fall in fertility rates, and not that great an additional increase in median per capita income in Mexico, the higher wages for working class folks in the US will cease to be so attractive. Folks in general love living in Mexico, as long as they can achieve a reasonable albeit modest standard of living. I learned a lot about Mexico when I went there a couple of times in the past year with my gardener.

The long-term trends are hard to predict because they depend heavily on policies that could change with the political situation. The particular combination of free trade plus massive US corn subsidies is very hard on maize-growing areas in Mexico, since they get the disadvantages of free trade without the advantages. Then there's the question of whether Mexico gets more of a social safety net. And lastly there's whether the US moves towards a more skills-based immigation policy. (None of which of course is to disagree with your post - in particular the point about people mostly liking to live in Mexico I think is underappreciated here).

[Torie]

Immigration from Mexico will probably fall a lot, then recover a bit during the next economic expansion, but ultimately it will taper off and largely stop within the next 20 years or so.

It won't stop, but I think it will get increasingly middle class. With the fall in fertility rates, and not that great an additional increase in median per capita income in Mexico, the higher wages for working class folks in the US will cease to be so attractive. Folks in general love living in Mexico, as long as they can achieve a reasonable albeit modest standard of living. I learned a lot about Mexico when I went there a couple of times in the past year with my gardener.

The long-term trends are hard to predict because they depend heavily on policies that could change with the political situation. The particular combination of free trade plus massive US corn subsidies is very hard on maize-growing areas in Mexico, since they get the disadvantages of free trade without the advantages. Then there's the question of whether Mexico gets more of a social safety net. And lastly there's whether the US moves towards a more skills-based immigation policy. (None of which of course is to disagree with your post - in particular the point about people mostly liking to live in Mexico I think is underappreciated here).

One thing I saw driving from Guadalajara (sp) to Talpa (half way sort of to Puerta Vajarta (sp) sort of via secondary highways was large plots of flat land growing corn and in particular sugar. It looked like those farms were highly efficient, with very fertile volcanic soil and a superb climate, and competitive on a global basis. I expected to see smaller plots of land that were more labor intensive, but they did not exist in this part of Mexico.

[War on Want]

Immigration from Mexico will probably fall a lot, then recover a bit during the next economic expansion, but ultimately it will taper off and largely stop within the next 20 years or so.

It won't stop, but I think it will get increasingly middle class. With the fall in fertility rates, and not that great an additional increase in median per capita income in Mexico, the higher wages for working class folks in the US will cease to be so attractive. Folks in general love living in Mexico, as long as they can achieve a reasonable albeit modest standard of living. I learned a lot about Mexico when I went there a couple of times in the past year with my gardener.

Exactly, my family is middle class in Mexico and they would never think about moving to America because they have a decent living standard. Mexico is changing fast and it really stands out to you if you go to Monterrey or a few cities similar to Monterrey, especially in the more upper class areas. I even doubt there will be much middle class immigration to Mexico to America, if anything I could see more Americans moving to Mexico in the future for business oppurtunities, retirement etc.

[opebo]

Life in the USA is unpleasant, and most immigrants intend only to go there to make money as quickly as possible and return home.  So now that there is no money to be made, why go to such an unpleasant place?