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Author Topic: France 1995: what if Delors vs Balladur in the 2nd round ?  (Read 1552 times)
big bad fab
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« on: May 15, 2009, 08:17:04 am »
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Let's imagine Jacques Delors is a tougher guy... and decides to run in 1995 presidential elections.
He wins big against Henri Emmanuelli in PS primaries.

During the 1st round campaign, with very good polls for Delors in the 2nd round, right voters become aware of the need to have an electable candidate in the 2nd round.

So, Edouard Balladur is ahead of Jacques Chirac and the 2nd round gathers Delors and Balladur.

Who wins ?
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Robb the Survivor
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« Reply #1 on: May 15, 2009, 11:57:03 am »
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Do you want to know what I wish or what I think it would happen ?
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« Reply #2 on: May 16, 2009, 05:17:00 am »
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Do you want to know what I wish or what I think it would happen ?

Both if you want, it's always better to try to analyze beyond our own wish.

I think I can guess your wish.

But the "prediction" is hard in this case.
In reality, Balladur wasn't very good against Chirac. But Chirac was just ahead of Balladur (and election night was quite suspenseful).
In my scenario, Delors would have been a formidable candidate on paper. But during long months of camapigning, I'm not so sure... And the left was still in bad shape.
So, it's not an easy question....
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PASOK Leader Hashemite
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« Reply #3 on: May 16, 2009, 06:53:01 am »
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With Delors, a "modern" social democrat/Christian leftist and a strong supporter of market economy, how would the Socialist Left react? I tend to think that a number of the most leftie of the PS supporters and Jospin voters IRL would have voted for Robert Hue or some other leftie, to reject Delors' reformism and capitalist attitude. I don't know if those voters would have turned out in a runoff between Delors and Balladur.
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Robb the Survivor
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« Reply #4 on: May 16, 2009, 11:12:32 am »
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Do you want to know what I wish or what I think it would happen ?

Both if you want, it's always better to try to analyze beyond our own wish.

I think I can guess your wish.

But the "prediction" is hard in this case.
In reality, Balladur wasn't very good against Chirac. But Chirac was just ahead of Balladur (and election night was quite suspenseful).
In my scenario, Delors would have been a formidable candidate on paper. But during long months of camapigning, I'm not so sure... And the left was still in bad shape.
So, it's not an easy question....

Delors was one of the best socialists at this time, and having him for president would be fantastic.

However ( maybe I will surprise you ), I think nobody from the left could win in 1995. Remember the PS collapse in 1993 : many considered it as the end of a PS as a government party. Even a great campaigner and a well-considered personality as Jacques Delors campaigning against a guy like Balladur could not have changed this reality. In fact, it needed an extraordinary work of the PS in the 1995-1997 time to permit it to win again legislatives. Plus, I agree with Hashemite ( you naturally have the right to think that it's only because it goes in my sense, as you want ) : a Delors candidacy would have demobilized more leftist voters, especially in a campaign dominated by "fracture sociale".
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Robb of the House Stark, First of his Name, Lord of Winterfell and King in the North



Quote from: IRC
22:15   ComradeSibboleth   this is all extremely terrible and in all respects absolutely fycking dire.

"A reformist is someone who realizes that, when you bang your head on a wall, it's the head that breaks rather than the wall."

Peppino, from the movie Baaria
big bad fab
filliatre
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« Reply #5 on: May 16, 2009, 01:34:39 pm »
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You both may be right.

Would that mean that Delors would have been in 3rd position behind Balladur and Chirac in the 1st round ?!?

Remember, this hypothesis was seriously taken into account (even in the PS) after Delors (precisely) said NO to a candidacy in December 1994.

I also think Delors would have been a poor campaigner.
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PASOK Leader Hashemite
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« Reply #6 on: May 16, 2009, 02:48:36 pm »
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Would that mean that Delors would have been in 3rd position behind Balladur and Chirac in the 1st round ?!?

No, I really doubt that. I was looking around the 1994 polls on the Ipsos website (on which I have a subscription), and Delors was placing first in most polls for the first round. Of course, Balladur was a strong second then, with Chirac in limbo.

Delors would have been a good candidate for the PS, despite the fact that his pro-market might turn of the lefties in the PS and that he would have been a poor campaigner. Probably better than Jospin even.
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Robb the Survivor
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« Reply #7 on: May 16, 2009, 04:30:34 pm »
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You both may be right.

Would that mean that Delors would have been in 3rd position behind Balladur and Chirac in the 1st round ?!?

Remember, this hypothesis was seriously taken into account (even in the PS) after Delors (precisely) said NO to a candidacy in December 1994.

I also think Delors would have been a poor campaigner.

If you are talking about Delors running in the 1st round with everything remaining normal, I tend to think that it would happen as in real life : Balladur's campaing is pathetic, Chirac manages to create a momentum around the "mangez des pommes !" slogan, and Delors benefits on their division being finally ahead of 1st round. Something like this :
- Delors : 25%
- Chirac : 22%
- Balladur : 16%
- Le Pen : 14%
- Hue : 11%
- Laguiller : 6%
- Villiers : 4%
- Voynet : 2%
- Cheminade : 0%


Delors would have been a good candidate for the PS, despite the fact that his pro-market might turn of the lefties in the PS and that he would have been a poor campaigner. Probably better than Jospin even.

Managing to get 47,5% of the vote in 1995 was still an unbelievable succes for PS.
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Robb of the House Stark, First of his Name, Lord of Winterfell and King in the North



Quote from: IRC
22:15   ComradeSibboleth   this is all extremely terrible and in all respects absolutely fycking dire.

"A reformist is someone who realizes that, when you bang your head on a wall, it's the head that breaks rather than the wall."

Peppino, from the movie Baaria
big bad fab
filliatre
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 13946
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: 1.42, S: 4.87

P P P

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« Reply #8 on: May 18, 2009, 02:16:26 am »
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As for me, I think Balladur would have won, even greater than Chirac against Jospin, maybe 53-47.

Because:
- Delors would have been an even worse campaigner than Balladur, Delors is too clever for French medias and he hasn't a "fighting spirit"
- many socialists would have supported him in the same way they supported Royal (not the same ones, of course !)
- Delors would have been too moderate for the far left, which was already on the rise at the time (remember Hue led a harsh nand populist campaign: he wasn't a "quiet" communist; and Laguiller did well in the 1st round)
- the right had a structural strength at the time
- Le Pen's voters, anti-European fundies, would have jumped into the Balladur-Pasqua bandwagon just to beat "Delors l'Européen"
- In a 2nd round debate, Balladur would have been better than Delors (this one is just a "feeling", not an analysis).

BUT what you wrote has convinced me that, in fact, had Delors been candidate, Chirac would have done better than in the reality and Balladur (too moderate for right-winger and from whom centrist and moderate voters may well have decided to try Delors) would have beaten from his left and from his right.
And Chirac may have gathered even more leftists than in the reality, because of Delors located too much close to the center.

So my scenario would not have taken into effect, even with Delors being courageous...
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Enjoy the French elections !
Enjoy polling analysis !
Enjoy my tracker !

http://sondages2012.wordpress.com/
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