Unemployment Rate

[Frodo]

The recession may end towards the end of this year, but we all know that unemployment is a lagging indicator and will get worse before it gets better, reaching its peak sometime next year. 

I am asking what do you think that peak will be.

Personally, I would not be surprised if it hits between 12 to 13% before it will all be finally over. 

[Tender Branson]

Mid-tens by August, then starts to recede ...

[CARLHAYDEN]

Psychologically, the key number if 10.8%.

If the unemployment rate exceeds that, all the "happy talk" in the world won't work.

[??????????]

Probably 20-25% by 2011. This country has a negligible amount of manufacturing. Where are all these jobs going to be created?? And what kind of jobs will they be?

[dead0man]

Probably 20-25% by 2011. This country has a negligible amount of manufacturing. Where are all these jobs going to be created?? And what kind of jobs will they be?

We need to start offing the Baby Boomers now before it is too late!

[opebo]

Probably 20-25% by 2011. This country has a negligible amount of manufacturing. Where are all these jobs going to be created?? And what kind of jobs will they be?

Well, they'll be very poorly paid whatever kind of job they are - that is the nature of economic 'globalization'.

[k-onmmunist]

It wont go over 10%.

[Nhoj]

It wont go over 10%.

why do you say that?

[k-onmmunist]

It wont go over 10%.

why do you say that?

Not enough scope for it to get much worse.

[Rowan]

Probably 12%. Things are still getting worse.

[Vepres]

Probably 20-25% by 2011. This country has a negligible amount of manufacturing. Where are all these jobs going to be created?? And what kind of jobs will they be?

Management, finance, government, medical services, salesmen, engineers, IT jobs like programming, Marketing, just to name a few.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Probably 20-25% by 2011. This country has a negligible amount of manufacturing. Where are all these jobs going to be created?? And what kind of jobs will they be?

Management, finance, government, medical services, salesmen, engineers, IT jobs like programming, Marketing, just to name a few.

Just the same Job creators we have seen over the past 10 years. Though finance will probably be a the bottom of the pack. I agree about management being on there though(full Disclosure: I plan to major in Business Management). With medical services you might as well put pharmacuticals and Health Insurers, b/c if they are on board with Obama's Health Care reform you can bet they are going to get something out of it. Also the Energy Sector(especially renewables but also conventional domestic sources).


I say the max peak is 12.5%, and the minimum peak is about 10.7%.

[??????????]

Probably 20-25% by 2011. This country has a negligible amount of manufacturing. Where are all these jobs going to be created?? And what kind of jobs will they be?

Management, finance, government, medical services, salesmen, engineers, IT jobs like programming, Marketing, just to name a few.

Such a narrow scope of jobs won't be enough to put all the unemployed back to work. And for a management job you have to have people to manage, obviously.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

No higher than 11%.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

I doubt that official unemployment will surge much further than 10%.

Meanwhile, I expect increasing divergence between official and unofficial unemployment, with official worsening mildly and unofficial worsening significantly.

[Frodo]

More jobs lost in June than expected; official unemployment rate rises to 9.5%, highest since 1983.

I can't say jmfcst's forecast of a recovery in the third quarter (or the early part of the fourth) is looking too good... 

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

More jobs lost in June than expected; official unemployment rate rises to 9.5%, highest since 1983.

I can't say jmfcst's forecast of a recovery in the third quarter (or the early part of the fourth) is looking too good... 

because history shows that the tail wags the dog?

[Sam Spade]

To say this employment report was bad is an understatement.

B/D model "created 185K" of jobs.  About 330K dropped off the numbers entirely (which is why the employment percentage didn't jump as much).  Looking at the Rust Belt, it's pretty obvious that the eventual mass auto layoffs ain't here yet.

To those who think otherwise, when your economy is (or was) 70% consumer spending and wages keeping declining along with bank's cutting consumer credit, what do you think will happen?

[Beet]

Wage and salary declines are also accelerating, according to an examination of income tax deposits. One wonders how long labor conditions can remain in free-fall given that consumer spending has stabilized now for 6 full months. At some point, one imagines, there must be finally enough slack in the labor market that it begins to stabilize.

[CARLHAYDEN]

Wage and salary declines are also accelerating, according to an examination of income tax deposits. One wonders how long labor conditions can remain in free-fall given that consumer spending has stabilized now for 6 full months. At some point, one imagines, there must be finally enough slack in the labor market that it begins to stabilize.

When the July numbers come out in another month, there will be another shoe dropping in the unemployment numbers, i.e. non-federal government employees.  Most state and local governments operate on a fiscal year starting on July 1st, and most require a balanced budget.  Additionally, taxpayers have made it pretty clear that they don't want increased taxes, so, there will be layoffs in the local/state goverments around the country.

[phk]

13%

[CARLHAYDEN]

If the national official unemployment rate hits 10.9%, that will be higher than at any time since world war 2!

Something else to consider.

If consumers decide to be frugal in the upcoming Christmas season (which I expect), then many retailers, suppliers and some manufacturers will be going bankrupt in January of next year.

[JerryBrown2010]

11% then it will start heading down.

[Coburn In 2012]

probably 18 to 20 percent by the end of obamas term

[JerryBrown2010]

probably 18 to 20 percent by the end of obamas term

LOL, you make me laugh.