MN-2010/SurveyUSA: Pawlenty (R) likely to win a third term
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  MN-2010/SurveyUSA: Pawlenty (R) likely to win a third term
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Author Topic: MN-2010/SurveyUSA: Pawlenty (R) likely to win a third term  (Read 3760 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: May 20, 2009, 11:55:21 PM »

Tim Pawlenty (R): 51
Matt Entenza (DFL): 37

Tim Pawlenty (R): 52
Tom Bakk (DFL): 34

Tim Pawlenty (R): 51
John Marty (DFL): 34

Tim Pawlenty (R): 50
Susan Gaertner (DFL): 36

Tim Pawlenty (R): 47
Mark Dayton (DFL): 43

Tim Pawlenty (R): 51
Paul Thissen (DFL): 32

Tim Pawlenty (R): 47
R. T. Rybak (DFL): 42

Tim Pawlenty (R): 48
Chris Coleman (DFL): 37

Tim Pawlenty (R): 51
Margaret Kelliher (DFL): 34

Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 600 Minnesota adults 05/18/09 through 05/19/09. Of them, 552 identified themselves as being registered to vote and were asked these questions.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=85f8bdd5-5419-4b4a-bba1-336941049c49
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #1 on: May 20, 2009, 11:56:52 PM »

Impressive considering his not so great approval ratings these days. Then again, the fact that his closest race is with Mark Dayton...eh...
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #2 on: May 21, 2009, 12:50:56 AM »
« Edited: May 21, 2009, 08:16:17 PM by Lief »

Didn't SUSA have a ridiculous Republican lean last election (edit: in MN)? The Democratic bench is pretty weak (for some reason?) in MN though.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #3 on: May 21, 2009, 01:03:00 AM »

Didn't SUSA have a ridiculous Republican lean last election? The Democratic bench is pretty weak (for some reason?) in MN though.

Yes, Obama+3 (result: Obama+10) and Coleman+5 (Franken won).

But in 2006 they were quite good in MN.
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Ronnie
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« Reply #4 on: May 21, 2009, 01:14:45 AM »

These polls are questionable to say the least...
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Saxwsylvania
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« Reply #5 on: May 21, 2009, 02:08:48 AM »

Prediction: No matter what happens in the gubernatorial election, Pawlenty will not be the nominee in 2012.
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Rowan
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« Reply #6 on: May 21, 2009, 03:56:49 PM »

Didn't SUSA have a ridiculous Republican lean last election?

In MN, yes. But among the swing states, they were the best.
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justfollowingtheelections
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« Reply #7 on: May 21, 2009, 04:01:29 PM »

If we run a good candidate (I have no idea who that would be) and he keeps doing a lousy job handling the Franken/Coleman issue, we will beat him, but if that happens, he might not run at all and focus on the 2012 presidential elections
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BRTD
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« Reply #8 on: May 21, 2009, 07:56:30 PM »

Impressive considering his not so great approval ratings these days. Then again, the fact that his closest race is with Mark Dayton...eh...

Gee, could it be that these polls are only showing name recognition now? No that can't be...
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #9 on: May 21, 2009, 08:01:45 PM »

Impressive considering his not so great approval ratings these days. Then again, the fact that his closest race is with Mark Dayton...eh...

Gee, could it be that these polls are only showing name recognition now? No that can't be...

Mark Dayton, a former U.S. Senator who only recently left office, is polling so low because he has low name recognition? Gee, that can't be...
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BRTD
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« Reply #10 on: May 21, 2009, 09:38:34 PM »

Impressive considering his not so great approval ratings these days. Then again, the fact that his closest race is with Mark Dayton...eh...

Gee, could it be that these polls are only showing name recognition now? No that can't be...

Mark Dayton, a former U.S. Senator who only recently left office, is polling so low because he has low name recognition? Gee, that can't be...

I'm explaining why Dayton polls the best. Also shows that the rest of the polls with the other candidates mean little. I mean even I have never heard of two of these people (Marty and Thisser)

Rybak's numbers are pretty impressive considering only about a quarter or so of the state is familiar with him. I hope he does run.
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ilikeverin
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« Reply #11 on: May 22, 2009, 11:16:42 AM »

Impressive considering his not so great approval ratings these days. Then again, the fact that his closest race is with Mark Dayton...eh...

Gee, could it be that these polls are only showing name recognition now? No that can't be...

Mark Dayton, a former U.S. Senator who only recently left office, is polling so low because he has low name recognition? Gee, that can't be...

I'm explaining why Dayton polls the best. Also shows that the rest of the polls with the other candidates mean little. I mean even I have never heard of two of these people (Marty and Thisser)

Rybak's numbers are pretty impressive considering only about a quarter or so of the state is familiar with him. I hope he does run.

Correct on both paragraphs (I think I could get behind Rybak).  And Marty is the DFL Senate Majority Leader, IIRC.

From Wikipedia, Marty's a DFL State Senator who epic failed against Arne Carlson in 1994, Thissen's in the House.  They're both announced candidates, which is why I suspect they were polled.
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BRTD
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« Reply #12 on: May 22, 2009, 11:22:25 AM »

The Senate Majority Leader is my old Senator, Larry Pogemiller.
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sg0508
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« Reply #13 on: May 28, 2009, 01:56:11 PM »

While gov races are much more bipartisan, MN is the one midwestern state that seems to slowly be trickling our way.  Obama actually ended up rather poor in MN compared to the rest of the midwest and the democrats haven't won that seat in years.
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Dan the Roman
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« Reply #14 on: May 28, 2009, 08:45:57 PM »

Given how well Pawlenty was polling this far out in 2006 and how close that ended up, I would not say these are good numbers for him. Especially because he stays static in most of the races with the only difference being his opponents' strength. I would say from these that his absolute cap is around 51-52% and all he has is down from there.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #15 on: May 31, 2009, 09:20:48 PM »

I don't think Pawlenty will run.  I think he's more likely to retire from the guv's office in 2010, and start running for president.  What is to be gained by running for a third term?  If he has any presidential ambitions whatsoever (which I think he does), then there's no point in risking a loss in 2010 by running for a third term as guv.

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