http://blogs.tampabay.com/buzz/2009/05/bronson-wont-run-for-governor-fears-backlash-at-grassroots-.html#moreAgriculture Commissioner Charles Bronson, under pressure from state Republican Party leaders seeking to avoid an expensive primary battle, said this afternoon he will not run for governor in 2010. But he left open the door to possibly changing his mind.
Bronson's announcement clears the path for fellow Republican and Cabinet member Bill McCollum, Florida's conservative attorney general, to run against Chief Financial Officer Alex Sink, a Democrat who also serves on the Cabinet.
Bronson was, however, careful not to completely rule out a possible run for governor. He noted there are 18 months to go before the 2010 general election, and not until July 2010 will candidates officially qualify. And as a political veteran who has been one of the party's more active members in campaigns over the years, Bronson knows a lot can change in 12 to 18 months.
"At this time, I will not be a Republican candidate for governor," Bronson told reporters. "If something should happen and I change my mind, I can always do that." He stressed it is unlikely he'll change his mind, but when pressed he said he is going to "just do my job and watch how this develops."
http://www.southernpoliticalreport.com/storylink_520_874.aspxBy Hastings Wyman
Southern Political Report
May 20, 2009 — The day after Florida’s Gov. Charlie Crist (R) announced he would run for the US Senate in 2010, leaving the governor’s office an open seat, Chief Financial Officer Alex Sink (D) made it official that she will run for governor. A week later Attorney General Bill McCollum (R) announced that he'll run also. With no serious opposition expected in either party primary, the stage appears to be set for next year’s gubernatorial contest.
Sink, 60, has a long career in business, culminating in serving as the CEO of Bank of America in Florida. She won her current post as Florida’s CFO with 54% in 2006. She is highly popular among state Democrats and has significant appeal in the GOP-leaning business community. Her business background is unusual for a Democrat and combined with her social liberalism and her strong opposition to drilling for oil off Florida’s coast make her candidate to be reckoned with.
In 2002, her husband, Bill McBride, ran for governor against Jeb Bush (R), giving her a taste of statewide campaigning which has served her well in politics. Popular former governor and former US Senator Bob Graham (D) quickly endorsed her, underscoring the Democratic Party’s unity behind her candidacy. If she wins the election, Sink would become the Sunshine State’s first Democratic governor in 12 years.
“Alex is the perfect candidate for a Florida race,” says Frank Sanchez, a long-time Tampa Democrat slated to become Undersecretary of Commerce for International Affairs in the Obama Administration. “She’s been fiscally responsible and very focused on what things cost. She’s not a tax and spend politician… Business Republicans feel very comfortable with her.”
Perhaps Sink’s greatest asset is that she is a fresh face at a time when voters here as elsewhere have shown a penchant for change. This was demonstrated in 2008 when Barack Obama carried the state, helped significantly by an extra-large turnout among African-American voters. If US Rep. Kendrick Meek (D), who is black, wins the US Senate nomination in Florida next year, the voter-turnout pattern from 2008 could be repeated. Moreover, the state’s Democrats are in better shape than they have been for a long time. In addition to Obama’s victory here, the Democrats picked up three congressional seats and some state legislative seats, and the state party is in good financial shape.
Another Democratic asset could be Hispanic resentment over the likely loss of former House Speaker Marco Rubio (R) to Crist, the favorite of GOP leaders, in the US Senate primary. Latino support for the GOP declined sharply in 2008 and could decline even further if Hispanic voters perceive the party has disregarded them importance by defeating Rubio. In any case, 2010 will be a major election year in Florida, with open seats for the US Senate, governor and the three cabinet posts -- attorney general, chief financial officer and agriculture commissioner -- which are likely to create a lot of well-financed campaigns and in the process, boost turnout, to whose benefit is not yet clear.
A Republican insider has a much less favorable view of Sink’s prospects. “Sink is far weaker than the conventional wisdom has her,” he tells SPR. “Her name ID is only 41%... The Republicans will be able to define her.” He adds, “She has a banking background. That’s better than an insurance company, but not much. And her husband lost his 2002 race.” Although she won the low-profile race for CFO in 2006, “She’s never really been tested,” he says.
McCollum has run statewide three times, twice unsuccessfully for the US Senate, in 2000 and 2004, and once successfully, when he was elected Florida’s attorney general in 2006. A relatively colorless man in a gray flannel -- or perhaps seersucker in Florida -- suit, McCollum nevertheless is a tireless worker and tends to surprise observers by his stronger-than-expected showings. Prior to his election as attorney general in 2006, McCollum served 20 years in Congress. Other potential GOP contenders, including former Gov. Jeb Bush and US Rep. Vern Buchanan, have taken themselves out of the governor’s race. State Agriculture Commissioner Charles Bronson (R), who is term-limited and has previously expressed interest in the governorship, has not yet taken removed his name from consideration.
Asked if Bronson is likely to run, one experienced GOP insider says, “No, no! … He doesn’t want to be a spoiler.” And he adds that Bronson “doesn’t have a compelling differential with McCollum, no selling point.” Moreover, state GOP chairman Jim Greer appeared with McCollum at his announcement and stated that he will ask the state Republican Committee to endorse McCollum. Observers expect Bronson to pull his name out of the hat soon.
Another factor which may help McCollum is that Republicans have been in charge of the state for 12 years, holding both the governor’s office and majorities in both houses of the legislature. “People have basically been okay with this,” says the GOP insider. If true, the Democrats’ “change” argument may not sell.
A business-oriented Republican says that “McCollum is definitely a perfect candidate for the business community on the issues.” He adds several caveats, however: “But he’s an uninspiring campaigner, he’s not a back-slapper and he’s run [statewide] twice and lost, and won once.” He also notes that “Sink has done as excellent job as CFO… The business community is excited to have a Democrat like Alex Sink. But we need to know about how she stands on [business] issues.”
A recent Quinnipiac Poll shows McCollum with a 48%/18% approval/disapproval rating for his performance as attorney general, to a 32%/22% rating for Sink’s performance as chief financial officer, suggesting in part that McCollum is better known than Sink. It may also reflect an effort by McCollum to project a less partisan image while serving as attorney general. Recently, for example, he launched a series of public service announcements on television that high-lighted his efforts to fight child predators (the ad campaign was denounced by Democrats as a thinly disguised campaign ploy).
At this point, the polls show a tight race, but that may not hold.
“If the turnout pattern is like Obama’s race, it’s Sink’s to lose,” says University of South Florida political scientist Susan MacManus; “If not, then McCollum has a chance.” She also notes that Sink, because she would be the first woman governor in Florida’s history, “could take advantage of the gender gap.” A Mason Dixon survey taken March 30-April 1 showed McCollum with 36% of the vote to Sink’s 35%, with a very large 29% undecided. MacManus notes, “The role of independents is critical in Florida and they don’t know these candidates. So far, the polls are split along part activist lines.
Look for a hard-fought, highly financed contest with much at stake both for the Sunshine State and for the nation. Holding the governorship could give either party a major advantage in carrying Florida and its post-census 27-plus electoral votes in the 2012 presidential contest.
