China’s Recovery Is Stalling, Credit Suisse Says
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 07:14:12 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  General Politics
  Economics (Moderator: Torie)
  China’s Recovery Is Stalling, Credit Suisse Says
« previous next »
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: China’s Recovery Is Stalling, Credit Suisse Says  (Read 2425 times)
Beet
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,805


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: May 22, 2009, 04:01:26 PM »

China = Manufacturing + Export. Look anywhere else in the world, and who has been hit the hardest? Manufacturers and exporters. The Chinese have only been able to stave this off by the government using the country's savings to create a mini-bubble. The limits of this strategy are now being seen:

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

May 20 (Bloomberg) -- China’s economic recovery began to stall in the second half of April and is slowing further this month, raising concern that the rebound won’t be as “strong as many recently have hoped,” Credit Suisse Group AG said.

Retail industries including electronics and department stores have weakened, adding to a slump in power consumption, Dong Tao, a Hong Kong-based economist said in a report.

“The pace has slowed, even reversed in some sectors,” Tao said. “The trend has become more visible in May.”

Credit Suisse, Switzerland’s biggest bank by market value, joins the World Bank and Oppenheimer & Co. this week in raising concern about the strength of the world’s third-biggest economy. The World Bank said today enthusiasm about a recovery may be “premature.” Katherine Lu, Oppenheimer’s China equities director, said the economy is “struggling” and may fall short of the government’s 8 percent growth forecast.

The slowdown may spur declines in the country’s stocks, Credit Suisse said. The Shanghai Composite Index has climbed 46 percent this year on speculation a 4 trillion yuan ($586 billion) stimulus package will revive growth as exports fell after recessions in the U.S., Japan and Europe.

“Renewed concern about China’s growth momentum could trigger a market correction,” Credit Suisse said.

China’s economy expanded 6.1 percent in the first quarter, the slowest pace in almost a decade. Overseas shipments declined 22.6 percent in April from a year earlier, the customs bureau said last week.

Investment ‘Way Down’

Manufacturing may falter in coming months after expanding in March and April, Tao said. The Purchasing Manager’s Index, or PMI, rose to 53.5 in April from 52.4 in March. A reading above 50 indicates an expansion.

“The PMI runs a risk of slipping below 50 over the next few months,” Tao wrote.

David Dollar, the World Bank’s country director for China, said today it was “hard to get too excited about the future” for the economy because private investment is lagging government spending.

Private investment, the main driver of growth, was “way down” in the first quarter, Dollar said at a forum in Beijing, without citing a figure.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601080&sid=aoREqPxXWlYY&refer=asia
Logged
Frodo
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 24,509
United States


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: May 22, 2009, 09:51:13 PM »

Excellent -with India set to further liberalize its economy (with the Congress Party in relatively unambiguous control), and China's growth rate beginning to falter, the stage is now set for India to not only catch up with China but also to surpass it.

Just think of the implications for both countries if this trend holds.... 
Logged
Verily
Cuivienen
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 16,663


Political Matrix
E: 1.81, S: -6.78

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: May 22, 2009, 10:01:21 PM »

India just doesn't have the infrastructure to catch up with China right now. Congress has done well with the economic management aspects (at least as long as it hasn't been held hostage by the Communists, who will not be a factor going forward), but the political willpower (and, in some cases, the money) is not there for the necessary large-scale infrastructure projects, even in the case of a stable Congress government as we will hopefully see for the next five years.
Logged
Sam Spade
SamSpade
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,547


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: May 22, 2009, 10:27:42 PM »

I could never understand how China thought it could increase production and this would cause demand to rebound from the US after the demand collapse.  It's illogical.  I mean, they could do some stimulation among their own populace and encourage them to spend, but it would never make up for what has been lost.  Never.

I'm not saying China couldn't eventually do this, but it takes a while to develop such an economic system and you need some breaks too.  China is nowhere near this.

This is the soon-to-be (or already happening) result of the all the exporter countries (India too) and it will not be pretty.  We'll be better off than they are in the short-term, even though long-term, we're worse off, I suspect.
Logged
Sbane
sbane
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,303


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: May 23, 2009, 02:18:01 AM »
« Edited: May 23, 2009, 02:19:37 AM by sbane »

India just doesn't have the infrastructure to catch up with China right now. Congress has done well with the economic management aspects (at least as long as it hasn't been held hostage by the Communists, who will not be a factor going forward), but the political willpower (and, in some cases, the money) is not there for the necessary large-scale infrastructure projects, even in the case of a stable Congress government as we will hopefully see for the next five years.

I wouldn't say the political willpower doesn't exist, rather there are many competing interests that can, in a democracy, slow things considerably. Progress will happen, but India's infrastructure is already in bad shape.  Compared to ten years ago it is much better, but things like inadequate ports and an irregular electrical supply are still huge problems. Most of the improvements have been in roads, and even there a lot of work need to be done. And these things just can't be fixed overnight, even with the political will and the lack of red tape. If India wants to build a large manufacturing base, these issues need to be solved first.
Logged
phk
phknrocket1k
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,906


Political Matrix
E: 1.42, S: -1.22

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: May 23, 2009, 02:54:28 AM »

Excellent -with India set to further liberalize its economy (with the Congress Party in relatively unambiguous control), and China's growth rate beginning to falter, the stage is now set for India to not only catch up with China but also to surpass it.

Just think of the implications for both countries if this trend holds.... 

India is at least 30 years away from parity with China, minimum and is around 2-3 decades behind in certain measures such as infrastructure and education.
Logged
Sbane
sbane
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,303


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: May 24, 2009, 02:57:28 AM »

Excellent -with India set to further liberalize its economy (with the Congress Party in relatively unambiguous control), and China's growth rate beginning to falter, the stage is now set for India to not only catch up with China but also to surpass it.

Just think of the implications for both countries if this trend holds.... 

India is at least 30 years away from parity with China, minimum and is around 2-3 decades behind in certain measures such as infrastructure and education.

Maybe he meant that India can surpass China's growth rate? In that case he may be right. But you are also right that overall India is at least 2 decades behind China, while in things like education and infrastructure it is at least 3 decades behind. On the other hand in a closed society like China we truly don't know what is going on. What is there in Shanghai and Beijing might not give us the full picture of what is actually occurring in the nation.
Logged
opebo
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 47,010


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: May 24, 2009, 05:52:43 AM »

The supposed educational difference is not very relevant considering the vast majority of workers in either China or India do and will for many decades perform only very simply repetitive mind-numbing tasks for which they will be trained on the job.  India is much closer to parity in terms of the education of the elite class of overseer workers.
Logged
Gustaf
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 29,770


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: May 24, 2009, 12:22:05 PM »

The supposed educational difference is not very relevant considering the vast majority of workers in either China or India do and will for many decades perform only very simply repetitive mind-numbing tasks for which they will be trained on the job.  India is much closer to parity in terms of the education of the elite class of overseer workers.

Lol. Your ignorance continues to amaze. You have no idea what people do in these countries.
Logged
opebo
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 47,010


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: May 24, 2009, 12:42:18 PM »

The supposed educational difference is not very relevant considering the vast majority of workers in either China or India do and will for many decades perform only very simply repetitive mind-numbing tasks for which they will be trained on the job.  India is much closer to parity in terms of the education of the elite class of overseer workers.

Lol. Your ignorance continues to amaze. You have no idea what people do in these countries.

Meathead, the vast majority of people in any country, including the United States or Sweeden perform only very simple repetitive mind-numbing tasks for which they will be trained on the job.
Logged
Gustaf
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 29,770


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: May 24, 2009, 04:50:43 PM »

The supposed educational difference is not very relevant considering the vast majority of workers in either China or India do and will for many decades perform only very simply repetitive mind-numbing tasks for which they will be trained on the job.  India is much closer to parity in terms of the education of the elite class of overseer workers.

Lol. Your ignorance continues to amaze. You have no idea what people do in these countries.

Meathead, the vast majority of people in any country, including the United States or Sweeden perform only very simple repetitive mind-numbing tasks for which they will be trained on the job.

Lol. Your ignorance continues to amaze. You have no idea what people do in these countries. (probably because you haven't worked yourself and want to tell yourself that it requires no skills so as to not feel inferior. I got news - you are inferior)
Logged
opebo
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 47,010


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: May 24, 2009, 05:01:44 PM »

Lol. Your ignorance continues to amaze. You have no idea what people do in these countries. (probably because you haven't worked yourself and want to tell yourself that it requires no skills so as to not feel inferior. I got news - you are inferior)

Your tone seems offensive, but happily I am prodigiously thick skinned.  Think about it, chappy, what do we do?  Well, we live in houses, eat food, and drive round in cars.  So, most people work in these fields - about food, transport and buildings, and selling the various odds and ends and accoutrements associated (such as clothings, furnitures, and air fresheners).  I can assure you that 98% of the jobs associated with any of this require anything beyond the most basic training.

You're living in a dream world if yo uthink everyone's a high teck.
Logged
Gustaf
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 29,770


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: May 24, 2009, 05:22:28 PM »

Lol. Your ignorance continues to amaze. You have no idea what people do in these countries. (probably because you haven't worked yourself and want to tell yourself that it requires no skills so as to not feel inferior. I got news - you are inferior)

Your tone seems offensive, but happily I am prodigiously thick skinned.  Think about it, chappy, what do we do?  Well, we live in houses, eat food, and drive round in cars.  So, most people work in these fields - about food, transport and buildings, and selling the various odds and ends and accoutrements associated (such as clothings, furnitures, and air fresheners).  I can assure you that 98% of the jobs associated with any of this require anything beyond the most basic training.

You're living in a dream world if yo uthink everyone's a high teck.

I realize this is part of the delusions you need so I won't press it further. I guess it must hurt a little bit to realize you can't hold a job even in Thailand so I get the need of telling yourself that working is really easy.

Logged
opebo
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 47,010


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: May 24, 2009, 05:54:03 PM »

I realize this is part of the delusions you need so I won't press it further. I guess it must hurt a little bit to realize you can't hold a job even in Thailand so I get the need of telling yourself that working is really easy.

What?  If only I weren't employed.  I experience the humiliation of toil at least every week, if not every day.

But I never said that 'working is really easy'.  It is incredibly hard, due however to unpleasantness rather than anxiety about any 'skill' needed.

Logged
Gustaf
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 29,770


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: May 24, 2009, 06:12:26 PM »

I realize this is part of the delusions you need so I won't press it further. I guess it must hurt a little bit to realize you can't hold a job even in Thailand so I get the need of telling yourself that working is really easy.

What?  If only I weren't employed.  I experience the humiliation of toil at least every week, if not every day.

But I never said that 'working is really easy'.  It is incredibly hard, due however to unpleasantness rather than anxiety about any 'skill' needed.



Sure, if it helps you sleep I will leave you be.
Logged
opebo
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 47,010


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: May 24, 2009, 06:55:19 PM »

Sure, if it helps you sleep I will leave you be.

You seem to believe it is reasonable or universal to have a psychological need to 'be good at work'.  I can assure you this is not the case.  However if you enjoy being a performing dog, I will leave you be.
Logged
Gustaf
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 29,770


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: May 26, 2009, 03:50:40 AM »

Sure, if it helps you sleep I will leave you be.

You seem to believe it is reasonable or universal to have a psychological need to 'be good at work'.  I can assure you this is not the case.  However if you enjoy being a performing dog, I will leave you be.

It obviously is - if you are not aware of that you know nothing about psychology or biology. But I can't say that surprises me. There seem to be few subjects where you "know" anything beyond what you would like to be true.

Regardless, I was merely basing my observations on your particular behaviour. You seem to have a pathological obsession with deriding work and you seem to be fully incompetent in that field yourself. It doesn't take a psychology major to connect the dots. And since you don't believe in morality I see no reason to save you the embarassement of pointing it out.
Logged
opebo
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 47,010


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: May 27, 2009, 06:38:56 AM »

Gustaf, I have never derided work, I have derided the capitalist system under which work is an apparent sign of violent oppression.  I don't find work in and of itself to be either admirable or discreditable.
Logged
phk
phknrocket1k
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,906


Political Matrix
E: 1.42, S: -1.22

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: June 25, 2009, 02:14:29 AM »

Excellent -with India set to further liberalize its economy (with the Congress Party in relatively unambiguous control), and China's growth rate beginning to falter, the stage is now set for India to not only catch up with China but also to surpass it.

Just think of the implications for both countries if this trend holds.... 

India is at least 30 years away from parity with China, minimum and is around 2-3 decades behind in certain measures such as infrastructure and education.

Maybe he meant that India can surpass China's growth rate? In that case he may be right. But you are also right that overall India is at least 2 decades behind China, while in things like education and infrastructure it is at least 3 decades behind. On the other hand in a closed society like China we truly don't know what is going on. What is there in Shanghai and Beijing might not give us the full picture of what is actually occurring in the nation.

I think a comparison of %'s is irrelevant when the bases are different.
Logged
opebo
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 47,010


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: June 25, 2009, 09:30:55 AM »

Excellent -with India set to further liberalize its economy (with the Congress Party in relatively unambiguous control), and China's growth rate beginning to falter, the stage is now set for India to not only catch up with China but also to surpass it.

Just think of the implications for both countries if this trend holds.... 

The problem with your thesis is that 'liberalization' has proven to be deleterious to growth and economic well being (notice the depression?).
Logged
jokerman
Cosmo Kramer
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,808
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: June 25, 2009, 09:54:48 PM »

Excellent -with India set to further liberalize its economy (with the Congress Party in relatively unambiguous control), and China's growth rate beginning to falter, the stage is now set for India to not only catch up with China but also to surpass it.

Just think of the implications for both countries if this trend holds.... 

The problem with your thesis is that 'liberalization' has proven to be deleterious to growth and economic well being (notice the depression?).
Amusingly China and India were nearly economically equal in 1950.
Logged
Sbane
sbane
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,303


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: June 25, 2009, 10:39:19 PM »

Excellent -with India set to further liberalize its economy (with the Congress Party in relatively unambiguous control), and China's growth rate beginning to falter, the stage is now set for India to not only catch up with China but also to surpass it.

Just think of the implications for both countries if this trend holds.... 

The problem with your thesis is that 'liberalization' has proven to be deleterious to growth and economic well being (notice the depression?).

There's a depression in China and India?
Logged
Sbane
sbane
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,303


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: June 25, 2009, 10:40:19 PM »

Excellent -with India set to further liberalize its economy (with the Congress Party in relatively unambiguous control), and China's growth rate beginning to falter, the stage is now set for India to not only catch up with China but also to surpass it.

Just think of the implications for both countries if this trend holds.... 

India is at least 30 years away from parity with China, minimum and is around 2-3 decades behind in certain measures such as infrastructure and education.

Maybe he meant that India can surpass China's growth rate? In that case he may be right. But you are also right that overall India is at least 2 decades behind China, while in things like education and infrastructure it is at least 3 decades behind. On the other hand in a closed society like China we truly don't know what is going on. What is there in Shanghai and Beijing might not give us the full picture of what is actually occurring in the nation.

I think a comparison of %'s is irrelevant when the bases are different.

That is true to an extent. I think India and China are close enough to compare though. Comparing India to the United States would be a different issue.
Logged
phk
phknrocket1k
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,906


Political Matrix
E: 1.42, S: -1.22

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #23 on: June 26, 2009, 01:09:39 AM »
« Edited: June 26, 2009, 02:34:37 AM by phknrocket1k »

Excellent -with India set to further liberalize its economy (with the Congress Party in relatively unambiguous control), and China's growth rate beginning to falter, the stage is now set for India to not only catch up with China but also to surpass it.

Just think of the implications for both countries if this trend holds.... 

India is at least 30 years away from parity with China, minimum and is around 2-3 decades behind in certain measures such as infrastructure and education.

Maybe he meant that India can surpass China's growth rate? In that case he may be right. But you are also right that overall India is at least 2 decades behind China, while in things like education and infrastructure it is at least 3 decades behind. On the other hand in a closed society like China we truly don't know what is going on. What is there in Shanghai and Beijing might not give us the full picture of what is actually occurring in the nation.

I think a comparison of %'s is irrelevant when the bases are different.

That is true to an extent. I think India and China are close enough to compare though. Comparing India to the United States would be a different issue.

This depends on your definition of close.

For example if we averaged GDP figures from the IMF, World Bank and the CIA we get around $7.6 trillion GDP (PPP) for the PRC. (Slightly unconventional but should yield something close to the truth, there is some greater variance in the Chinese GDP numbers).

Similarly if we do this for India we get $3.2 trillion.

So a quick ratio test with (7.6/3.2) we get 2.375, this means that China's base is 2.375 times greater.

Now what does this mean?

It means for China's and India's growth to be equalized in expenditure amounts, India has to maintain a 2.375 higher % growth rate.

If the Chinese growth rate is 1% for India to match it China's total growth (on a dollar to dollar, yuan to rupee basis) it would need to be 2.375%.
Logged
opebo
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 47,010


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #24 on: June 26, 2009, 03:01:18 AM »



There's a depression in China and India?

Yes, the depression is a condition of human society.  The whole thing.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.061 seconds with 12 queries.