The Unholy Trinity

[Rob]

Only three counties outside the old Confederacy voted for JFK in 1960 and Goldwater in 1964: Custer, ID; Emmons, ND; and Dorchester, MD. Their results from 1960-72:

Custer, Idaho

1960: Kennedy 56%, Nixon 44%
1964: Goldwater 50.2%, Johnson 49.8%
1968: Nixon 50%, Humphrey 27%, Wallace 23%
1972: Nixon 69%, McGovern 19%, Schmitz 12%

Emmons, North Dakota

1960: Kennedy 54%, Nixon 46%
1964: Goldwater 53%, Johnson 47%
1968: Nixon 65%, Humphrey 25%, Wallace 10%
1972: Nixon 64%, McGovern 33%, Schmitz 3% [note McGovern's *big* improvement and Nixon's decline...]

Dorchester, Maryland

1960: Kennedy 52%, Nixon 48%
1964: Goldwater 54%, Johnson 46%
1968: Nixon 41%, Wallace 32%, Humphrey 27%
1972: Nixon 75%, McGovern 23%, Schmitz 2%

Dorchester is the most easily explained. A racist Eastern Shore area with Dixiefied politics, George Wallace campaigned there while seeking the Democratic nomination in 1964 and his visit ignited a race riot in Cambridge. Voters rewarded him with his best showing in the state, 82 percent (!), then gave Goldwater his best Maryland percentage. Wallace's 32 percent on the American Independent line in 1968 was, o/c, his best in the state as well. (Dorchester is also the only member of the Trinity to vote for a Democrat since JFK, giving Clinton a plurality in 1996).

So, anyone know anything about Custer and/or Emmons?

[bgwah]

Emmons is a conservative German Catholic county that made an exception with JFK for obvious reasons. Also voted for Al Smith.

No clue for Custer...

[Boris]

how did Custer vote before 1960?

[RI]

how did Custer vote before 1960?

1892: Populist
1896-1900: Democratic
1904: Republican
1908-1916: Democratic
1920-1928: Republican
1932-1948: Democratic
1952-1956: Republican

[RI]

Emmons is a conservative German Catholic county that made an exception with JFK for obvious reasons. Also voted for Al Smith.

And Jimmy Carter...

[Antonio the Sixth]

Two conservative counties in two of the most conservative states. Usefull to remember that there are ultraconservatives outside the South.

[Linus Van Pelt]

A surprising number of counties in Idaho swung Republican in 1964, even though only Custer went from a Dem victory to a Rep victory. I think I've read somewhere that some parts of Idaho had significant southern settlement after the civil war; I've no real idea if this is connected, but 23% for Wallace suggests it might be.

[Nym90]

Kennedy also did fairly well with Mormons in 1960 for some reason.

[Rob]

Kennedy also did fairly well with Mormons in 1960 for some reason.

Some would say that was a result of "anti-anti-Catholic" voting among a religious minority; and one with precedent, as Utah was Al Smith's best state beyond the old Confederacy and the Catholic Triangle (New York/Massachusetts/Rhode Island). I would disagree, though- Kennedy didn't do all that great among this bloc that almost certainly retained a Democratic registration advantage in 1960. In fact, he did pretty miserably among Mormons when compared with, say, Truman's results.

[Husker]

Emmons County ND went from well over 3,000 votes in 1960 to just over 1,500 in 2008. These are conservative counties for certain, but this conservatism comes mostly from the sparsely populated nature of this land.