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Author Topic: Comprehensive Pennsylvania Results by Precinct, 1992-2008  (Read 10577 times)
DavidNYC
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« on: May 25, 2009, 10:21:38 pm »
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Because I've received more than one request for the data, I've uploaded the PA file to a hosting service. It's a 40 MB ZIP file which contains precinct-level results for the following PA races from 1992 through 2008, including both primaries and generals:

  • President of the United States
  • United States Senator
  • Governor
  • Lieutenant Governor
  • Attorney General
  • Auditor General
  • State Treasurer
  • Justice of the Supreme Court
  • Judge of the Superior Court
  • Judge of the Commonwealth Court
  • Representative in Congress
  • Senator in the General Assembly
  • Representative in the General Assembly

The archive also contains voter registration data. I obtained it on a CD from the PA Dept. of State for $10 a few months ago. (The CD isn't mentioned on their website, but someone told me about it... and it turned out to be legit.) There's no reason to order the CD yourself, since its entire contents are available in the ZIP file.

One word of warning: I can tell you that there are occasional errors and missing data in these files. What those problems are, of course, remains to be discovered. But the data is still extremely useful.

Anyhow, without further ado, here is the link:

http://www.mediafire.com/?kngm1mgntmw

Let me know if you have any problems downloading it. Enjoy!
« Last Edit: May 25, 2009, 10:37:15 pm by DavidNYC »Logged
Nordstrand
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« Reply #1 on: May 26, 2009, 09:56:35 pm »
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Thanks so much for this information! I should have the spreadsheet and full state map finished pretty soon.

I'm surprised (okay maybe I'm not) that McCain won so many precincts in Philly. He even won ward 26 (52.51%-46.43%) and came close in 63 (51.84%-47.03% Obama).
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Linus Van Pelt
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« Reply #2 on: May 26, 2009, 10:07:49 pm »
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I'm surprised (okay maybe I'm not) that McCain won so many precincts in Philly. He even won ward 26 (52.51%-46.43%) and came close in 63 (51.84%-47.03% Obama).

26, but none in the Northeast - is this historically normal? I guess having Black neighbourhoods right next door has a certain effect on the Italians...
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #3 on: May 27, 2009, 10:48:28 am »
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I'm surprised (okay maybe I'm not) that McCain won so many precincts in Philly. He even won ward 26 (52.51%-46.43%) and came close in 63 (51.84%-47.03% Obama).

26, but none in the Northeast - is this historically normal? I guess having Black neighbourhoods right next door has a certain effect on the Italians...

Yeah, we expected McCain to win maybe one or two in the NE even after the economic crisis. I don't know if it's historical but it might be.

The 26th has always been a more conservative Republican ward. Yeah, the racial tensions help. Like you said, it's an old, Italian, Catholic ward. Republicans do fairly well there (especially compared to the surrounding areas...and not just black areas) in basically every race. I believe that the 26th is the best Republican ward in the city because even though they have pretty favorable demographics within the ward, they still have to compete with the South Philly Dems and there are some black areas of the 26th. They have a great organization down there.

For the record, Bush barely lost the 26th in 2004. It was his best ward in the city.

The 63rd is probably our third best GOP ward but I won't go into my usual analysis.  Tongue

I haven't seen the results/a map of the precinct breakdown but I can visualize the areas where McCain won. I won't be shocked that he won a lot. He would have won a lot more if the economy didn't tank. I think my division (our word for "precinct"), for example, would have been decided by just a few votes if we didn't have the economic crisis. My division is almost the perfect bellwether - Obama won with 52% toi McCain's 46%. You should see the results in other races, too - the margins are almost identical to the statewide or districtwide totals.

I'd be interested in seeing results (especially for my ward and division) but I don't feel like downloading all of that.  Tongue  Feel free to check to see just how much of a bellwether it has been over time. I'm in the 65th ward/10th division.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #4 on: May 27, 2009, 10:59:27 am »
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Ok, I couldn't resist - I downloaded it...only to later realize that the results are a jumbled mess.  Tongue
« Last Edit: May 27, 2009, 11:01:12 am by Keystone Phil »Logged


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« Reply #5 on: May 27, 2009, 09:04:52 pm »
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I'm surprised (okay maybe I'm not) that McCain won so many precincts in Philly. He even won ward 26 (52.51%-46.43%) and came close in 63 (51.84%-47.03% Obama).

26, but none in the Northeast - is this historically normal? I guess having Black neighbourhoods right next door has a certain effect on the Italians...

Yeah, we expected McCain to win maybe one or two in the NE even after the economic crisis. I don't know if it's historical but it might be.

The 26th has always been a more conservative Republican ward. Yeah, the racial tensions help. Like you said, it's an old, Italian, Catholic ward. Republicans do fairly well there (especially compared to the surrounding areas...and not just black areas) in basically every race. I believe that the 26th is the best Republican ward in the city because even though they have pretty favorable demographics within the ward, they still have to compete with the South Philly Dems and there are some black areas of the 26th. They have a great organization down there.

For the record, Bush barely lost the 26th in 2004. It was his best ward in the city.

The 63rd is probably our third best GOP ward but I won't go into my usual analysis.  Tongue

I haven't seen the results/a map of the precinct breakdown but I can visualize the areas where McCain won. I won't be shocked that he won a lot. He would have won a lot more if the economy didn't tank. I think my division (our word for "precinct"), for example, would have been decided by just a few votes if we didn't have the economic crisis. My division is almost the perfect bellwether - Obama won with 52% toi McCain's 46%. You should see the results in other races, too - the margins are almost identical to the statewide or districtwide totals.

I'd be interested in seeing results (especially for my ward and division) but I don't feel like downloading all of that.  Tongue  Feel free to check to see just how much of a bellwether it has been over time. I'm in the 65th ward/10th division.

I do think Hillary Clinton would have won the 26th by about 5-10 and sailed to much higher margins in the Northeast.  Interestingly, it is still a Democratic Ward on paper and union membership amongst whites is pretty strong there.  Bob Brady even won handily a lot of precincts McCain won.  I looked at some of the more whiter (not always Italians, yeah I know some Irish live there too ya know) divisions and none of them were a McCain blowout either.  IIRC, the best one was in the low 60s.  I think McCain's best precinct was in Fox Chase where he got in the mid 60s.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #6 on: May 27, 2009, 10:57:15 pm »
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I'm surprised (okay maybe I'm not) that McCain won so many precincts in Philly. He even won ward 26 (52.51%-46.43%) and came close in 63 (51.84%-47.03% Obama).

26, but none in the Northeast - is this historically normal? I guess having Black neighbourhoods right next door has a certain effect on the Italians...

Yeah, we expected McCain to win maybe one or two in the NE even after the economic crisis. I don't know if it's historical but it might be.

The 26th has always been a more conservative Republican ward. Yeah, the racial tensions help. Like you said, it's an old, Italian, Catholic ward. Republicans do fairly well there (especially compared to the surrounding areas...and not just black areas) in basically every race. I believe that the 26th is the best Republican ward in the city because even though they have pretty favorable demographics within the ward, they still have to compete with the South Philly Dems and there are some black areas of the 26th. They have a great organization down there.

For the record, Bush barely lost the 26th in 2004. It was his best ward in the city.

The 63rd is probably our third best GOP ward but I won't go into my usual analysis.  Tongue

I haven't seen the results/a map of the precinct breakdown but I can visualize the areas where McCain won. I won't be shocked that he won a lot. He would have won a lot more if the economy didn't tank. I think my division (our word for "precinct"), for example, would have been decided by just a few votes if we didn't have the economic crisis. My division is almost the perfect bellwether - Obama won with 52% toi McCain's 46%. You should see the results in other races, too - the margins are almost identical to the statewide or districtwide totals.

I'd be interested in seeing results (especially for my ward and division) but I don't feel like downloading all of that.  Tongue  Feel free to check to see just how much of a bellwether it has been over time. I'm in the 65th ward/10th division.

I do think Hillary Clinton would have won the 26th by about 5-10 and sailed to much higher margins in the Northeast.  Interestingly, it is still a Democratic Ward on paper and union membership amongst whites is pretty strong there.  Bob Brady even won handily a lot of precincts McCain won.  I looked at some of the more whiter (not always Italians, yeah I know some Irish live there too ya know) divisions and none of them were a McCain blowout either.  IIRC, the best one was in the low 60s.  I think McCain's best precinct was in Fox Chase where he got in the mid 60s.

Yeah, I acknowledged it's still Dem "on paper" and there are tons of union members. Brady winning handily in McCain precincts means nothing. We ran a complete joke candidate (as we always do). He was a black Republican, too, by the way.

I totally believe that McCain's best precinct was in Fox Chase.
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Nordstrand
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« Reply #7 on: May 28, 2009, 12:07:44 am »
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Yeah, I acknowledged it's still Dem "on paper" and there are tons of union members. Brady winning handily in McCain precincts means nothing. We ran a complete joke candidate (as we always do). He was a black Republican, too, by the way.

I totally believe that McCain's best precinct was in Fox Chase.

McCain's best was Ward 39 Division 14 in South Philly: 71.89%-24.56%.

McCain won 87 precincts and tied in 2, compared to Bush 46 and 1 in 2004.

13 Wards swung to the Republicans this time (1, 24, 25, 26, 39, 45, 56, 57, 58, 63, 64, 65, and 66), the largest of which was an 11.37% swing (Ward 26 - the only one McCain won). The biggest swing to Obama was Ward 35 (19.62%) (Crescentville area)

Here's my Excel spreadsheet with Philadelphia data by division and ward for both 2004 and 2008, as well as swing by ward:

http://www.sendspace.com/file/r83a3j

Note: There was data missing from 3 precincts in Ward 5 from 2004.

I'll likely upload the spreadsheet for the entire state tomorrow (2008 only).

EDIT: It looks like the colors don't show up right if you open it on a mac... but all the data is there.
« Last Edit: May 28, 2009, 01:19:36 am by Nordstrand »Logged
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« Reply #8 on: May 28, 2009, 02:12:05 am »
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Yeah, I acknowledged it's still Dem "on paper" and there are tons of union members. Brady winning handily in McCain precincts means nothing. We ran a complete joke candidate (as we always do). He was a black Republican, too, by the way.

I totally believe that McCain's best precinct was in Fox Chase.

McCain's best was Ward 39 Division 14 in South Philly: 71.89%-24.56%.

McCain won 87 precincts and tied in 2, compared to Bush 46 and 1 in 2004.

13 Wards swung to the Republicans this time (1, 24, 25, 26, 39, 45, 56, 57, 58, 63, 64, 65, and 66), the largest of which was an 11.37% swing (Ward 26 - the only one McCain won). The biggest swing to Obama was Ward 35 (19.62%) (Crescentville area)

Here's my Excel spreadsheet with Philadelphia data by division and ward for both 2004 and 2008, as well as swing by ward:

http://www.sendspace.com/file/r83a3j

Note: There was data missing from 3 precincts in Ward 5 from 2004.

I'll likely upload the spreadsheet for the entire state tomorrow (2008 only).

EDIT: It looks like the colors don't show up right if you open it on a mac... but all the data is there.

I never thought to look at the 39th for McCain's best precinct.  I looked at the Committee of 70 website and thought it would be in either the 26th or 63rd.  Guess I was wrong.

My explanations for both swings are simple.  26th- whites aren't leaving, black on top of ticket, figure out the rest.  35th- heavy white flight since both 2000 and 2004.  IIRC, the 35th voted for Ronald Reagan pretty heavily I might add.
« Last Edit: May 28, 2009, 02:15:35 am by ICE HOCKEY »Logged


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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #9 on: May 28, 2009, 12:03:10 pm »
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I didn't expect McCain's best division to come from the 39th but it makes sense - a lot of old Italians there, too (and many conservative Irish Dems in some areas).

My maternal Grandparents live in the 39th. I remember my Grandmother telling me that she has never seen so much visible support for a Presidential candidate (and a Republican at that) in her life down there. This is especially surprising for a Republican because while this is still a socially conservative leaning area, the Dem machine controls everything.

Go figure that the 14th was his best division. For those that now the area, this is the stadium area/Packer Park. My Grandparents are right by there in the 31st division.
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DavidNYC
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« Reply #10 on: May 28, 2009, 07:55:05 pm »
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Ok, I couldn't resist - I downloaded it...only to later realize that the results are a jumbled mess.  Tongue

How so? There are definitely some errors, but the files are certainly usable.
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Rowan
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« Reply #11 on: May 28, 2009, 08:46:48 pm »
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Just curious, are you the same DavidNYC from Swing State Project?
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #12 on: May 28, 2009, 09:29:13 pm »
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Ok, I couldn't resist - I downloaded it...only to later realize that the results are a jumbled mess.  Tongue

How so? There are definitely some errors, but the files are certainly usable.

I think it's my computer or I didn't open it in the right program. The document came up really messed up. Everything was all crammed together.
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DavidNYC
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« Reply #13 on: May 28, 2009, 09:56:51 pm »
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Rowan: Yep, one and the same.

Phil: Even though they are .txt files, you'll need to open them with Excel to make any sense of them. They are comma separated, which means Excel will try to put every data item between commas in its own cell. Also, due to their large size, Excel 2003 will probably truncate the files. Excel 2007 can handle them without a problem.
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« Reply #14 on: May 29, 2009, 12:45:54 am »
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If these files are as much of a goldmine for non-Presidential results as i'm thinking.. then the only way David could have hit more of a home run would involve stacks of Mississippi Official & Statistical Registers.

Pennsylvania is another state with lots of potential for interesting primaries. Idk if it'd be as sectional as New Jersey, but still.
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DavidNYC
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« Reply #15 on: May 29, 2009, 07:15:34 pm »
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Hahah, you're too kind, RBH. I do think that these PA files are pretty amazing, though. You just slap an Excel PivotTable on `em and all the work is done for you automagically.
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RBH
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« Reply #16 on: May 29, 2009, 10:14:27 pm »
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yeah, my first shot at primary results was 1994.

And line 64000 was around the 4th county.. because county 2 is Alleghany county, along with giant primaries for Governor, Lt. Governor, and Congress.. and Alleghany didn't even have precinct results there either. Bah
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« Reply #17 on: May 31, 2009, 11:00:06 pm »
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Go figure that the 14th was his best division. For those that now the area, this is the stadium area/Packer Park. My Grandparents are right by there in the 31st division.

I messed up on this a bit.

The 14th includes the stadiums but isn't the area I had in mind otherwise. The Packer Park area borders the 14th and I have little to no doubt that those areas were for McCain as well (and are probably pretty Republican or very close overall).

The 14th being McCain's strongest division makes even more sense now - it's not heavily populated (we have some divisions - and I'm sure this is one of them - with not even 100 registered voters). In fact, most of the populated area in this precinct is the Navy Yard. How appropriate, eh?
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« Reply #18 on: June 22, 2012, 10:04:52 pm »
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Would anyone still by chance have this file?
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jocallag
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« Reply #19 on: July 02, 2012, 04:26:14 pm »
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Yes it would be great if we can get access to that file I maybe an updated version.  Who can be contact to get it from the PA Secretary of State?
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« Reply #20 on: July 06, 2012, 07:40:38 pm »
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I suggest e-mailing davidnyc. If he hasn't changed e-mail adresses, he'll probably get it.
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5dg3!g#r
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« Reply #21 on: October 15, 2012, 09:39:39 am »
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Hello,

Could someone please send a new link that contains the voting results for PA by precinct?

Thanks,
SG
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