Which Republican Senators will vote for Sotomayor?
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  Which Republican Senators will vote for Sotomayor?
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Author Topic: Which Republican Senators will vote for Sotomayor?  (Read 15224 times)
JohnnyLongtorso
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« on: May 27, 2009, 07:30:24 AM »

My guess: Collins, Gregg, Hatch, Lugar, Snowe, Voinovich. That would be five of the seven who voted for her in the 90s plus Voinovich, who has supported nearly all of Obama's appointments so far (I think Kagan was his only no vote). As to the other two from the gang of seven, I'm sure Cochran will switch, and Bennett will probably do so as well, more because of his primary challenge than anything.
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Nym90
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« Reply #1 on: May 27, 2009, 08:53:04 AM »

Yeah, sounds about right. Probably a few more too, though there's not that many moderate Republicans left of course.

I found it interesting that Cochran voted for her last time, as well as Santorum.
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Coburn In 2012
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« Reply #2 on: May 27, 2009, 09:30:32 AM »

RINOS only like SNowe and Collins.  Maybe Voinovich because he's on the way out anyway and he can be pretty pc.
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Zarn
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« Reply #3 on: May 27, 2009, 10:05:36 AM »

Why would a moderate Republican vote for her, other than out of fear of being labeled anti-Hispanic?
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #4 on: May 27, 2009, 10:08:22 AM »

Snowe already put out a statement where he anounced her support for Sotomayor.
It's hard to imagine that Collins won't follow her.
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Nym90
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« Reply #5 on: May 27, 2009, 10:50:05 AM »

Why would a moderate Republican vote for her, other than out of fear of being labeled anti-Hispanic?

Well there is the traditional belief that Supreme Court nominees shouldn't be opposed for ideological reasons. To the victor goes the spoils.
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Smash255
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« Reply #6 on: May 27, 2009, 12:30:28 PM »

Why would a moderate Republican vote for her, other than out of fear of being labeled anti-Hispanic?

Well there is the traditional belief that Supreme Court nominees shouldn't be opposed for ideological reasons. To the victor goes the spoils.

Agreed, also the fact her nomination doesn't do anything to change the balance of the court since she is replacing another liberal in Souter.  If she was replacing Scalia it might be a different story, but even in that case I don't think Snowe or Collins would be against the nomination.
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Zarn
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« Reply #7 on: May 27, 2009, 12:55:23 PM »

Constitutional not ideological.
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Wiz in Wis
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« Reply #8 on: May 27, 2009, 01:13:18 PM »

I expect quite a few supporters actually.

Martinez
Gregg
Snowe
Collins
Voinovich
Bond
Murkowski
Hutchison

and possibly, but not expected:
McCain
Kyl
Cornyn
Hatch
Bennett
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Kaine for Senate '18
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« Reply #9 on: May 27, 2009, 02:56:30 PM »

Snowe
Collins
Gregg
Voinovich
Lugar
McCain
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Stranger in a strange land
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« Reply #10 on: May 28, 2009, 08:59:18 AM »

Will vote to confirm:
Snowe
Collins

Will probably vote to confirm:
Voinovich
Lugar
Gregg
McCain
Martinez
Murkowski

Possible votes for confirmation, and will probably vote against a filibuster:
Hutchison
Hatch
Bennett
Graham

The only Democrats I can see voting against confirmation are Nelson and Landreiu, and even they'll probably vote against a filibuster.
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riceowl
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« Reply #11 on: May 28, 2009, 09:23:04 AM »

i think hutchison will be interesting, if only for the primary battle she's in for in a few months.
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Nym90
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« Reply #12 on: May 28, 2009, 09:59:22 AM »

Hutchison is definitely in a tough spot. A yes vote hurts her in the primary, while a no vote hurts her in the general.

Ensign and McCain have similar political calculations.
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Verily
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« Reply #13 on: May 28, 2009, 11:44:50 AM »

Hutchison is definitely in a tough spot. A yes vote hurts her in the primary, while a no vote hurts her in the general.

Ensign and McCain have similar political calculations.

Not too bad. The best move for her is to vote no on cloture but yes on the confirmation. She can tell the conservative Republican primary electorate that she tried to stop the nomination at the only juncture where it could be stopped, and she can tell the Hispanic GE electorate that she voted for Sotomayor.
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Kaine for Senate '18
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« Reply #14 on: May 28, 2009, 02:31:01 PM »

The only Democrats I can see voting against confirmation are Nelson and Landreiu, and even they'll probably vote against a filibuster.

I think they'll both vote to confirm.  Nelson is extremely safe, and Landrieu has 6 years before she needs to run again.  There's no point in voting no.
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Verily
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« Reply #15 on: May 28, 2009, 02:36:57 PM »

The only Democrats I can see voting against confirmation are Nelson and Landreiu, and even they'll probably vote against a filibuster.

I think they'll both vote to confirm.  Nelson is extremely safe, and Landrieu has 6 years before she needs to run again.  There's no point in voting no.

Nelson has already done everything short of saying he will vote no. He's going to vote no. Landrieu has been silent, but she will probably vote yes. (She can justify it on gender rather than racial grounds if she wants/needs to.)
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #16 on: May 28, 2009, 05:43:43 PM »
« Edited: May 28, 2009, 05:48:27 PM by JohnnyLongtorso »

I figured KBH would vote "no" because it would help her win the primary. She'd be a lock to win the general anyway.

Edit: Nelson put out a statement that looks a lot more positive than his previous comments:

"President Obama is to be commended for selecting a nominee with a significant breadth and depth of legal experience to replace retiring Justice David Souter," Nelson says, "I look forward to learning more about Judge Sonia Sotomayor's background, record and qualifications -- and to meeting with her to discuss her judicial philosophy -- as this important United States Supreme Court nomination moves forward."

I suspect he'll vote yes. I don't see problems with any other Democrats. Landrieu did vote yes in 1998.
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Lunar
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« Reply #17 on: May 29, 2009, 05:41:49 AM »
« Edited: May 29, 2009, 01:51:41 PM by Lunar »

We have to see how things develop, but on a random but bold guess, these guys will vote against the filibuster or at least not vote for it:


Lugar,
Snowe,
Collins,
Cornyn,
hmm
Burr,
Murkowsk,
Gregg,
Corker,
Alexander
Graham
Hatch
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pogo stick
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« Reply #18 on: June 06, 2009, 07:29:59 PM »

Lugar ( <---- i'm with retard)
Snowe
Collins
Ensign (<--- I'm with unelectable-for-prez)
Voinich (<--- With "hard to spell name" guy)
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #19 on: July 12, 2009, 02:11:30 PM »
« Edited: July 14, 2009, 05:34:04 PM by JohnnyLongtorso »

Bump since the hearings are starting tomorrow. Schumer apparently thinks it'll be 80+ "aye". I'm skeptical.

Confirmed "nay"s:

Sam Brownback
James Inhofe
Pat Roberts

Leaving us with 37 (I'm assuming unanimity among Democrats/Bernie/CfL). This is what I'd break them down to [edited]:

"Aye"s:

Susan Collins
Lindsey Graham
Judd Gregg
Dick Lugar
Olympia Snowe
George Voinovich

Swing voters:

Lamar Alexander
Kit Bond
Orrin Hatch
Mel Martinez
Lisa Murkowski

"Nay"s:

John Barrasso
Bob Bennett
Jim Bunning
Richard Burr
Saxby Chambliss
Tom Coburn
Thad Cochran
Bob Corker
John Cornyn
Mike Crapo
Jim DeMint
John Ensign
Mike Enzi
Chuck Grassley
Kay Bailey Hutchison
Johnny Isakson
Mike Johanns
Jon Kyl
John McCain
Mitch McConnell
Jim Risch
Jeff Sessions
Dick Shelby
John Thune
David Vitter
Roger Wicker
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Purple State
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« Reply #20 on: July 13, 2009, 11:18:46 PM »

I would say that, unless Sotomayor says some really stupid things, you can move Hatch to Aye.
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JohnnyLongtorso
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« Reply #21 on: July 14, 2009, 07:28:33 AM »

I would say that, unless Sotomayor says some really stupid things, you can move Hatch to Aye.

Ultimately he will probably vote aye, but his opening remarks sounded pretty pessimistic (although I guess that was more in a general sense).
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Grumpier Than Uncle Joe
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« Reply #22 on: July 14, 2009, 07:41:51 AM »

Question - Will anyone running for President vote against Sotomayor?    I highly doubt it.
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Zarn
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« Reply #23 on: July 14, 2009, 10:09:28 AM »

Question - Will anyone running for President vote against Sotomayor?    I highly doubt it.

It may cost a GOP potential the nomination, if they do vote for her.

People are becoming upset about the abuse of the Constitution (lately), and that trend is generally among Republicans (although not exclusively).

Sotomayor is associated with severe bias in judgment (and rightly so). She doesn't see different ethnicities as equals in judgment.
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pogo stick
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« Reply #24 on: July 14, 2009, 10:17:20 AM »

Definitely :

Collins
Snowe
Voinovich


Most Likely Sad

Graham
Lugar
Murkowski
Hatch

Small tilt to voting yes Sad

McCain
Gregg
Hutchinson
Martinez
Bond
Alexander
Sessions

100% Hell no Sad

DeMint
Coburn
Brownback
Inhofe
Shelby
Thune
Cornyn
Chambliss
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