Which Republican Senators will vote for Sotomayor?

[Ogre Mage]

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0709/25252.html

Some interesting bits:

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[Ogre Mage]

Crist is an interesting hypothetical "no" vote, considering the importance of his state's Hispanic population and his Hispanic primary opponent.

Perhaps Crist concluded that Rubio's opposition to Sotomayor will give him cover in the Florida Hispanic Community.  He can say "Marco Rubio opposed her too."  Like Hutchison, he is trying to get through a GOP primary against a more conservative opponent.  Nevertheless, Crist's decision is questionable as he is in a stronger position than Hutchison.  This will likely cost him some Hispanic support.  And he had some cover if he had gone the other way as well, as Mel Martinez is supporting Sotomayor. 

While Crist is still highly likely to win the general election, his announcement is a modest boon for Kendrick Meek.

[Ogre Mage]

I really don't understand why everyone thinks this vote is the kiss of death to Republicans in Latino-heavy states. Presumably the Latinos that vote for Republicans won't be dissuaded by this vote, as they're probably conservative in the first place. Cornyn won re-election by 55-43 while losing Latinos 61-36, so it's not like he's got that much further down to go among that constituency.

It is not a huge problem in the short term, but the GOP is setting itself up poorly in the intermediate to long term.  The party is already in trouble with Latino voters over immigration and other issues.  If there is a solid GOP vote against Sotomayor, particularly from senators in heavy Hispanic states, perceptions of the party will continue to solidify.  Crist, Kyl and Cornyn have all come out against Sotomayor, I suspect Hutchison will as well.  At the rate the Hispanic population is growing, that 61-36 margin will loom much larger in the future.

[Ogre Mage]

I really don't understand why everyone thinks this vote is the kiss of death to Republicans in Latino-heavy states. Presumably the Latinos that vote for Republicans won't be dissuaded by this vote, as they're probably conservative in the first place. Cornyn won re-election by 55-43 while losing Latinos 61-36, so it's not like he's got that much further down to go among that constituency.

It is not a huge problem in the short term, but the GOP is setting itself up poorly in the intermediate to long term.  The party is already in trouble with Latino voters over immigration and other issues.  If there is a solid GOP vote against Sotomayor, particularly from senators in heavy Hispanic states, perceptions of the party will continue to solidify.  Crist, Kyl and Cornyn have all come out against Sotomayor, I suspect Hutchinson will as well.  At the rate the Hispanic population is growing, that 61-36 margin will loom much larger in the future.

Still, Cornyn's seat is basically his as long as he wants it. For a Republican incumbent to lose a senate election in Texas would probably require a scandal of the live boy/dead girl variety. That'll probably be different in 10-15 years, but Cornyn should have retired by then.

Really?  He's only 57.  A large number of senators serve into their late 70s.

[Ogre Mage]

These are the 4 that I think might still vote yes on Sotomayor:

Kit Bond
Judd Gregg
Lisa Murkowski
George Voinovich

Also, keep an eye on John McCain, even though he voted against her in 1998.  McCain said he wanted to see the Judiciary Committee results first.  Given that the Republicans on the committee voted 1-6 against her, that might seem to suggest he will vote no.  But the "yes" vote came from one of his closest allies -- Lindsey Graham.

I assume John Ensign will vote no, but given all his troubles and the demographic makeup of his state (which Obama won), who knows where his head is these days? 

On another note:

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http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0709/25488.html#ixzz0MYg7CRIa

[Ogre Mage]

6 of the 7 GOP senators and major Senate candidates in Hispanic heavy states are "no" votes:  Kyl, McCain, Ensign, Cornyn, Hutchison, Crist.  And they are all white.  The one exception is Mel Martinez, who is both retiring in 2010 and Hispanic. 

This might not be as damaging if the GOP wasn't already in the doghouse with Hispanic voters.  They won't be improving their standing with this vote, especially given how they also failed to send a representative to the national La Raza meeting.  Their actions speak loud and clear.

[Ogre Mage]

(1)  I'm going to vote against Sotomayor because I feel she's unqualified.
(2)  I cannot expect Hispanic Arizonans to be so short-sighted as to vote for me based on my support for a Puerto Rican judicial appointee.

How the hell could anyone say she was unqualified?  For anyone familiar with her resume, that statement makes no sense.

[Ogre Mage]

(1)  I'm going to vote against Sotomayor because I feel she's unqualified.
(2)  I cannot expect Hispanic Arizonans to be so short-sighted as to vote for me based on my support for a Puerto Rican judicial appointee.

How the hell could anyone say she was unqualified?  For anyone familiar with her resume, that statement makes no sense.

Ricci v. DeStefano

Also, her quote "The Appellate Court is where policy is made." 

Honestly, I think I would probably vote to confirm her.  But I'm not going to summarily discredit anyone who voted against her. 

If the above is the basis for claiming that Sotomayor is unqualified (as opposed to admitting they are against her for partisan and ideological reasons) then they deserve to be discredited.  The fact that some disagree with her opinion in Ricci doesn't make her "unqualified."  And Sotomayor is correct -- the Court of Appeals is where policy is made, because it sets precedent for its respective circuit.  Her enemies were simply taking quotes out of context to defame her.