Have your Predictions Lauged at in JUST THREE YEARS! 2012 Predictions

[tmthforu94]

Obama/Biden vs. Romney/Petraeus (Republicans best chance at winning)

[pogo stick]

Barack Obama / Mark Warner *I think Obama will drop Biden*

vs Sarah Palin / Mitt Romney

Very slim Obama win? Maybe Palin win? IDK cuz of the EV count

[Frodo]

Obama/Biden vs. Romney/Daniels

[JerryBrown2010]

Obama/Clinton vs Romney/Collins

Joe Biden dropping out because of health issue

[Mechaman]

The ultra moderate Jive Turkey Party (Howard Stern and Jesus H. Christ) wins an electoral landslide over the Democrats (Barack Obama and Joseph Biden) and the Republicans(Bobby Jindal and Sarah Palin). Everybody wakes up the next day with hangovers and have the munchies. Snack vendors nationwide rejoice.

I like this prediction best, if only for the sheer absurdity of it (as things stand now).   

Well chances are pretty high it won't be laughed at in 3 years, haha.

I did say "as things stand now". 

When I said it won't be laughed at in 3 years, it's true. Everyone is laughing their asses off right now.

When you say "it's true", you're kind of implying you can predict the future.  The reality is that there is a reasonable chance that your prediction there won't happen at all, like all the others. 

You're just a mindless political hack!

If you say so.   

I've had it with you braindead bleedingheart uber liberal ACLU carryun sons of guns! Ya think that just cause your dream candidate won that evurythun is dayses un roses for u? Do ya! Well ya rong boi! This is Muricah! This is Muricah boy! We must secede ONEONEONEONEONEONEONEELVEN!!!!!!!! The Jive Turkey Party shall rise again!

[ChrisJG777]

The ultra moderate Jive Turkey Party (Howard Stern and Jesus H. Christ) wins an electoral landslide over the Democrats (Barack Obama and Joseph Biden) and the Republicans(Bobby Jindal and Sarah Palin). Everybody wakes up the next day with hangovers and have the munchies. Snack vendors nationwide rejoice.

I like this prediction best, if only for the sheer absurdity of it (as things stand now).   

Well chances are pretty high it won't be laughed at in 3 years, haha.

I did say "as things stand now". 

When I said it won't be laughed at in 3 years, it's true. Everyone is laughing their asses off right now.

When you say "it's true", you're kind of implying you can predict the future.  The reality is that there is a reasonable chance that your prediction there won't happen at all, like all the others. 

You're just a mindless political hack!

If you say so.   

I've had it with you braindead bleedingheart uber liberal ACLU carryun sons of guns! Ya think that just cause your dream candidate won that evurythun is dayses un roses for u? Do ya! Well ya rong boi! This is Muricah! This is Muricah boy! We must secede ONEONEONEONEONEONEONEELVEN!!!!!!!! The Jive Turkey Party shall rise again!

You'll find that my economic views are quite incompatible with that of Liberalism, unlike yours. 

[Vepres]

Obama/Clinton vs Romney/Collins

Joe Biden dropping out because of health issue

No way Obama wins Kentucky without winning Indiana, even with Clinton on the ticket.

[ChrisJG777]

Obama/Clinton vs Romney/Collins

Joe Biden dropping out because of health issue

No way Obama wins Kentucky without winning Indiana, even with Clinton on the ticket.

That, and I don't think many of us here see Obama winning Arkansas and Louisiana regardless, or Georgia before Indiana, either.

[pbrower2a]

This is not my prediction, but it is where things start from.

Some blogger who did some poll-watching with an algorithm, someone capable of assessing the bias in polling and did a good job of predicting the 2008 election, uses a system similar to mine. Someone at www.fivethirtyeight.com has combined multiple polls, election results, and the national trend to show how "Election June 2009" would go:   

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(Note well: anything not in any shade of blue gives Obama a positive rating, the lowest of which is 50.0% in Louisiana). Even those in pink look as if Obama would get 55% or more of the vote based on approval ratings alone, which implies that he would win them by double-digit margins. Really, anything in gray or the medium shade of blue, including --

T-E-X-A-S !

should be considered a toss-up for now.

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Key (different from the one you expect from me, but for approval ratings):

Near-black 70% or more
Deep red: 65-69.99%
Medium red: 60-64.9%
Pink 55-59.9%
Gray 50-54.9%
Blue 45-45.9%
Deep blue  44.9% or less

My new projection (I will add orange for states and in which Obama seems to have an approval rating above 52.5) based on Nate Silver (I can't copy his numbers, but I can put them in map form):   

Key:

GOP wins by 10% or more
GOP wins up to 9%

tossup -- Obama wins barely, if at all (under 5%)
Obama wins 5-9.9%
pink, red,  deep red, or near-black Obama wins by more than 10%


The near-black are DC, Hawaii, and Rhode Island, all hard to see. This looks like an electoral landslide similar to that of Eisenhower in 1956.

[DS0816]

Quickly: I figure President Barack Obama will gain in Electoral College votes and win re-election easily. The night of Nov. 6, 2012 will be settled more quickly than the 11 pm ET projection, on Nov. 4, 2008, and Obama will be like Richard Nixon and Ronald Reagan: His Republican challenger will either be a non-threat or an unviable candidate—good news, either way.

Not that I'm figuring [Obama] will end up winning an additional 21 states, to match 1972 Nixon's and 1984 Reagan's 49-state wipeout re-elections; but I've tossed around the notion, in another thread, of Obama retaining all of his 28 states (plus Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District and District of Columbia) in his first election [2008] and expanding numbers of states carried [2012]. If it's a tidal wave, look toward some states you'd think, right now, aren't on the radar. Potential states (those carried by 2008 John McCain under 10 points are in purple) that Obama could put in play and/or flip: Texas, Georgia, Arizona, Tennessee, Missouri, South Carolina, Louisiana, Kentucky, Arkansas, West Virginia, North Dakota, South Dakota, Montana, and the 1st Congressional District in the state of Nebraska.

I believe [Obama's] 2008 margin of 7.25 points in the popular vote will swing a few points north for the Democratic party president—enough to qualify as a landslide. And in the process, he'll take more states. And those he doesn't—which many here would think include half of what I had offered up—will swing such states. If Obama has the same level swing in 2012 that he had in 2008—a 10-point national swing—then what I'm bringing up with the likes of, say, Ark., Ky., La., Tenn., and W.Va. is not so crazy.

[bhouston79]

Obama wins handily in a 64/72/84 style landslide.

Electoral College
Obama/Biden  500 (approx.)
Palin/Cantor     38 (approx.)

Popular Vote
Obama/Biden  58.6 %
Palin/Cantor    39.8 %

[hcallega]

This is my prediction for Obama/Biden vs. Romney/Social Conservative

Obama wins 367-171. You could flip a Dem to GOP depending on the GOP VP. I throw Indiana and NC to the GOP for different reasons. Indiana went to Obama because of big black and college turnout and the economy. It was a perfect storm and I don't think it will happen again. North Carolina could go to Romney because he would do better in the tech triangle. For the most part in NC people voted the way they did in 2004, only less Republicans voted. I flip Montana and Arizona because I believe that those are states that are trending Dem. Montana is a state that looks good for the Dems, and also is a logical state to go to Obama. Arizona would have gone Dem if McCain wasn't the nominee. I flipped WVA because it is a "skeptic" state that wasn't going to vote for a black liberal, but might for his second term if he does well. Also I don't think they'll buy a pro-buisness Mormon Yankee.