2009/2010 General Election

[afleitch]

It's never too early. I hope to edit and add to this post and add in later all sorts of gadgetry and maps to put together a reference page for all things relating to the next UK General Elections. First thing's first, transcribed from Rallings and Thrasher, the 'notionals'

Below is David Cameron's path to victory - to a majority of 1. Seats are listed in accordance to majority. So a majority of 2% would require a 1% swing to the Tories to win the seat. This assumes that the Tories will be able to make gains from the Lib Dems and the SNP...this is not as easy as it loooks. However for reference:

(Colour indicates which party holds the seat) Seat names have been shortened and simplified.

MAJ   
0.03   Gillingham
0.09   Crawley
0.44   York O.
0.46   Romsey
0.58   Harlow
0.66   Cheltenham
0.72   Croydon C.
0.77   Portsmouth N.
0.81   Battersea
1.00   Hove
1.12   Somerton
1.12   Eastleigh
1.70   Westmorland
1.71   Milton Keynes N.
1.85   Stroud
1.90   Dartford
2.14   Basildon S.
2.16   Ealing C.
2.20   Chester
2.33   Watford
2.39   Hereford
2.51   Colne Valley
2.53   Cardiff N.
2.54   Hastings
2.73   Calder Valley
2.92   Stourbridge LABOUR LOOSE MAJORITY - HUNG PARLIAMENT
2.93   Carshalton
3.04   Milton Keynes S.
3.13   Corby
3.30   Taunton
3.31   Perth
3.37   Vale of Glamorgan
3.50   Swindon S.
3.73   Dorset South
3.78   Northampton S.
3.80   High Peak
3.88   Loughborough
3.93   Aberconwy
4.01   Birmingham Edgbaston
4.01   Stafford
4.20   Angus
4.44   Broxtowe
4.70   Chippenham
4.81   Burton
4.83   Brighton Kempton
5.05   Bury N.
5.20   Rugby
5.30   Pendle
5.30   Redditch
5.31   Wolverhampton S.W.
5.32   Carmarthen W.
5.42   Ribble S.
5.45   Derbyshire S.
5.69   Bristol N.W.
5.74   Dumfries
5.87   Tamworth
6.01   Torbay
6.06   Cleethorpes
6.22   Sutton
6.25   Swindon N.
6.59   Westminster.
6.78   Worcester
6.87   Cornwall N.
6.89   Harrow E.
7.09   Richmond Park
7.41   Cheadle
8.00   Portsmouth S.
8.04   Bedford
8.05   Stevenage
8.06   Hendon
8.25   Chatham
8.29   Brentford
8.34   Bradford W.
8.35   Rossendale
8.44   Hammersmith
8.48   Blackpool N.
8.75   Halifax
8.82   Lancaster
8.88   Dewsbury
8.91   Dudley S.
9.00   Northampton N.
9.17   Warrington S.
9.25   Truro
9.32   Southport
9.47   Lincoln
9.50   Leicestershire N.W
9.63   Gedling
9.66   Halesowen
9.74   Nuneaton
10.18   Brecon
10.25   Cambourne (3rd)
10.35   Warwick
10.40   Dover
10.48   Keighley
10.50   Newton Abbott
10.71   Devon N.
10.84   Poplar
10.91   Stirling
11.11   Plymouth Sutton
11.14   Dudley N.
11.43   Elmet
11.47   Reading W.
11.65   Tynemouth
11.74   Morecambe
11.74   Pudsey
11.77   Cornwall S.E.
11.81   Ipswich
11.95   Bolton W.
11.99   Bolton N.E
12.00   Waveney
12.02   Sefton C.
12.17   Tooting
12.53   Amber Valley
12.54   Barrow in Furness CONSERVATIVE MAJORITY OF 1

[Keystone Phil]

First non-Brit but obsessed with British elections poster here! 

I can't wait.

[minionofmidas]

*perversely rooting for a result where the Tories are the largest party, but have a majority only outside Scotland*

[Harry Hayfield]

Or in the interest of fairness (all % are swing):

Lab maj 150: Hexham (6.02% to Lab)
Lab maj 100: Staffordshire, Moorlands (1.93% to Lab)
Lab maj 50: Sittingbourne and Sheppey (0.03% to Lab)
Lab lose overall majority: Northampton South (1.89% to Con)
Con largest party in hung parliament: Blackpool North and Cleveleys (4.24% to Con)
Conservative majority: Bolton West (5.98% to Con)
Con maj 50: Weaver Vale (7.01% to Con)
Con maj 100: Norwich North (8.30% to Con)

I would do a table in Wikipedia, but since I upgraded to IE8 all text boxes are minute and so is plain text

[afleitch]

Or in the interest of fairness (all % are swing):

Lab maj 150: Hexham (6.02% to Lab)
Lab maj 100: Staffordshire, Moorlands (1.93% to Lab)
Lab maj 50: Sittingbourne and Sheppey (0.03% to Lab)
Lab lose overall majority: Northampton South (1.89% to Con)
Con largest party in hung parliament: Blackpool North and Cleveleys (4.24% to Con)
Conservative majority: Bolton West (5.98% to Con)
Con maj 50: Weaver Vale (7.01% to Con)
Con maj 100: Norwich North (8.30% to Con)

I would do a table in Wikipedia, but since I upgraded to IE8 all text boxes are minute and so is plain text

The R&T figures are somewhat piecemeal - some sources put Waveney as the 'winning post.' I may defer to UKPollingreports figures for sake of consitancy

[Harry Hayfield]

One thing we can all agree on is the starting points:

Labour 35.25% winning 349 seats
Conservatives 32.34% winning 210 seats
Liberal Democrats 22.03% winning 62 seats
Other Parties 10.38% winning 29 seats
Labour lead of 2.91% = Labour majority of 48

[The Man From G.O.P.]

FAN TAS TIC

[afleitch]

"And the swing..."

Using Anthony Wells figures (UKPollingreport) the left hand side shows the % swing TO the Conservatives and how that, if uniformly spread, would affect the seat tallies.

To play about with it, assume the 2005 figures are:

LAB 36%
CON 33%
LIB 23%

The current average (again UKPollingreport numbers) is CON 42, LAB 29, LIB 19. That would be the Conservatives up 9 points and Labour down 7 points which equals a swing of 8% Lab to Con If repeated at the general election, this would give a theoretical Conservative majority of 40-60 seats. But remember...sweats swing differently.


            CON      LAB    MAJ
0          210      348     46
0.5       218      341     32
1          223      335     20
1.5       233      325   
2          244      313   
2.5       250      308   
3          262      297   
3.5       269      290   
4          272      287   
4.5       286      274   
5          295      266   
5.5       301      260   
6          311      250   
6.5       319      244   
7          328      236      6
7.5       335      229      20
8          345      219      40
8.5       355      213      60
9          362      204      74
9.5       367      201      84
10        378      191      106
10.5     388      184      126
11        396      178      142

[Harry Hayfield]

That' a very good point indeed. Any objections if I post a little something on UNS (uniform national swing)?

[afleitch]

That' a very good point indeed. Any objections if I post a little something on UNS (uniform national swing)?

The more the merrier

[Harry Hayfield]

Year of Election   Swing   Seats below national swing   Seats above national swing
1951   1.13%   Ashton under Lyne (1.11%)   Dulwich (1.21%)
1955   1.62%   Reading South (1.40%)   Sowerby (1.67%)
1959   1.32%   Falmouth and Camborne (1.24%)   Holborn and St. Pancras South (1.35%)
1964   3.10%   Bradford North (3.10%)   Epping (3.11%)
1966   2.86%   Croydon South (2.75%)   Glasgow, Cathcart (2.91%)
1970   4.82%   Brighouse and Spenborough (4.82%)   Coventry South (4.87%)
February 1974   0.73%   Sheffield, Heeley (0.60%)   Keighley (0.75%)
October 1974   2.18%   Beeston (2.03%)   Wallasey (2.26%)
1979         
1983         
1987   1.76%   Norwich South (1.75%)   Bristol East (1.83%)
1992   2.06%   Stockton South (1.88%)   Nottingham South (2.10%)
1997   10.24%   Eddisbury (10.24%)   Wansdyke (10.25%)
2001   1.80%   Northavon (1.71%)   Gillingham (1.95%)
2005   3.17%   Devon North (3.03%)   Eastleigh (3.21%)
2010   6.37%   Ipswich (6.37%)   Tooting (6.47%)

I hope that makes sense (as I have the dual problem of now knowing how to make a table on this plus the text box not knowing whether to go up or down)

[Smid]

Excellent work! I'm going to be keeping a close eye on this thread!

[Harry Hayfield]

Although not a general election type scene, the Euros in June will give an indication (as Wales is being one by constiuency).  My reckoning is for the Cons to win an election, they need to win the following seats / areas in the Euros:

Scotland: Edinburgh (Con hung parliament), South Ayrshire (Con majority)
Wales: Cardiff North (Con hung parliament), Delyn (Con majority)
England: Birmingham (Con hung parliament), Tower Hamlets (Con majority)

[Chancellor of the Duchy of Little Lever and Darcy Lever]

Although not a general election type scene, the Euros in June will give an indication (as Wales is being one by constiuency).  My reckoning is for the Cons to win an election, they need to win the following seats / areas in the Euros:

Scotland: Edinburgh (Con hung parliament), South Ayrshire (Con majority)

The South Ayrshire one doesn't look right to me.  The Conservatives topped the poll in the Holyrood Ayr constituency (which covers most of the council area) in both 1999 and 2004 and polled the most first preferences in the district in the 2007 (edit: and 2003) locals.

[Harry Hayfield]

My apologies, I was looking at the 2004 results (and not the notionals based for all the new English unitaries). The correct tallies should read:

Conservative Hung Parliament (4.24% to Con)
Scotland: Orkney
Wales: Cardiff North
Englad: Nottingham

Conservative Overall Majority (5.98% to Con)
Scotland: Clackmannan
Wales: Newport West
England: Middlesborough

[You kip if you want to...]

Labour overtaken by the Liberal Democrats.

31st May
ICM/Sunday Telelgraph

40% - Conservative
25% - Liberal Democrats
22% - Labour

Wow, we really are heading for major disaster.

[Harry Hayfield]

Others 13% (+5% on Election 2005)

Which poses the question how much of that is SNP, Plaid, Green, UKIP and BNP and how much of those will vote for those parties in Europe and then realise that none of them can win a general election and switch to Con, Lab and Lib Dem?

[CJK]

As a non-British person I've always wondered why some lib dems voters don't just switch to labour when the conservatives lead. Aren't they fairly close ideologically?

[Hash]

As a non-British person I've always wondered why some lib dems voters don't just switch to labour when the conservatives lead. Aren't they fairly close ideologically?

I believe polls have shown that a narrow majority of LD voters favour the Conservatives as second choice.

[doktorb]

As a non-British person I've always wondered why some lib dems voters don't just switch to labour when the conservatives lead. Aren't they fairly close ideologically?

If we ever were, it's not the case now. (I am  a LibDem member)

I would not vote for Labour at the moment - on issues such as ID cards, tax, education - we just don't match. I would rather spend my efforts helping my own party than shoring up the failures of another.

[You kip if you want to...]

New poll out from ComRes/The Independant showing how Labour'd do with different leaders.

Alan Johnson
CON 36 LAB 26 LD 19

Jack Straw
CON 36 LAB 25 LD 19

David Miliband
CON 37 LAB 25 LD 19

Ed Balls
CON 37 LAB 23 LD 20

John Cruddas
CON 36 LAB 22 LD 21

Gordon Brown
CON 38 LAB 22 LD 20

Harriet Harman
CON 38 LAB 22 LD 20

James Purnell
CON 38 LAB 21 LD 21

[Meeker]

New poll out from ComRes/The Independant showing how Labour'd do with different leaders.

Alan Johnson
CON 36 LAB 26 LD 19

Jack Straw
CON 36 LAB 25 LD 19

David Miliband
CON 37 LAB 25 LD 19

Ed Balls
CON 37 LAB 23 LD 20

John Cruddas
CON 36 LAB 22 LD 21

Gordon Brown
CON 38 LAB 22 LD 20

Harriet Harman
CON 38 LAB 22 LD 20

James Purnell
CON 38 LAB 21 LD 21

Owie

[Dan the Roman]

New poll out from ComRes/The Independant showing how Labour'd do with different leaders.

Alan Johnson
CON 36 LAB 26 LD 19

Jack Straw
CON 36 LAB 25 LD 19

David Miliband
CON 37 LAB 25 LD 19

Ed Balls
CON 37 LAB 23 LD 20

John Cruddas
CON 36 LAB 22 LD 21

Gordon Brown
CON 38 LAB 22 LD 20

Harriet Harman
CON 38 LAB 22 LD 20

James Purnell
CON 38 LAB 21 LD 21

Owie

To be fair, Ed Balls strong performance is due to a lack of name recognition. I am fully convinced that after a month in the public eye he would be doing far worse than Mr. Brown.

In fact, that could likely be said for most of this list.

[doktorb]

I don't understand how Ed Balls can be liked by anyone beyond his own postcode. Or street, at the most.

[minionofmidas]

I don't understand how Ed Balls can be liked by anyone beyond his own postcode. Or street, at the most.

At least he has balls.