O Império Eterno

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Contestation: 1920-1923

Note on the 1920 provincial elections: Held on the same day as the general election, the provincial elections generally followed the pattern set by the general election. In Minas Gerais, the Conservatives led by Raul Soares won a strong majority. The major change came in São Paulo, where the Conservatives under Washington Luís broke 18 years of Liberal oligarchic rule. In Rio de Janeiro, Nilo Peçanha, running with Conservative and Liberal supported, defeated Radical opposition as well as a dissident pro-Bernardes Conservative. The Liberals maintained their hold on Bahia and Rio Grande do Sul.

Bernardes assumed power as Brazil's economy suffered a sharp decline following the coffee boom created by the Allied war demand. Exports fell rapidly, the country went under heavy debt and a tough budgetary deficit. Although he represented a more economically liberal view, Bernardes could not politically afford the costs of undertaking a tough orthodox policy like Campos Sales had attempted to do. He continued to support, officially, the valorization policy but turned over responsibility for the valorization policy to the provinces themselves.

Bernardes' government faced rising military discontent by 1920, military discontent which had been inexistent under the very pro-military Fonseca regime. Bernardes received only lukewarm support from senior officers in the military, though Bernardes was careful not to alienate senior officers. However, younger junior officers, just out of school, were inbred with idealist views of society, and talked in terms of equality, democracy, and national pride. They opposed what they saw as a corrupt, oligarchic and undemocratic system. Though they also opposed what they called an outdated system, they did not speak in the positivist tones of their predecessors in the 1880s: they opposed the parliamentary system, not the Empress.

Dona Isabel I died on November 14, 1921. Having never fully recovered from the death of her younger sons, Prince Antônio Gastão (who had died in a plane accident in 1918) and most recently Prince Luís who had died in 1920. Dom Pedro, Isabel's eldest son, acceded to the Imperial Throne of Brazil in November 1921 as Dom Pedro III.

The year 1922 marked the centenary of Brazilian independence from Portugal, and marked the development of a new intellectual and artistic movement in Brazil, which broke from the old European traditionalism. Led by Graça Aranha, Oswald de Andrade, and Plínio Salgado, this new movement, called Brazilian modernists, rejected old academicism and the pro-Portuguese view of Brazilian history. While they argued that Brazil was historically influenced by Portugal, it  needed to create its own history and art. Led by these modernist thinkers, the Modern Arts Weeks in São Paulo (February 1922) led to unforeseen introspection and ideas, which conflicted with the old Brazilian Academy of Letters.

At the same time, influenced by this intellectual movement, new political movements led by the clergy or radicals took a new interest in working-class politics. While the Catholic Church was becoming more concerned by the plight of the proletariat, a group of radicals founded the Brazilian Communist Party (PCB) in March 1922 in Niterói.

At the same time, the junior officers in the military were growing restless. Isolated within their own ranks by the unwillingness of senior officers to take up the banner of reformism, their hopes for advancement were frustrated by the government. In July 1922, a small group took up arms at Igrejinha Fort on Copacabana Beach. However, lacking support from senior officers and suffering from their lack of organization, their quixotic struggle was quickly crushed.

However, the revolt of the officers in July 1922 was not an isolated incident and there was growing military and political opposition to the political system. Bernardes enforced a state of siege throughout Brazil following the revolt at Igrejinha Fort, but the new Emperor became increasingly worried by the rise of revolutionary activity, although he felt that he was not directly threatened.

Furthermore, Bernardes spearheaded the passage of legislation which banned the new PCB, as well as a law limiting freedom of expression under the state of siege and a law which enabled the government to expel any 'foreigner' found to be fermenting political revolution in Brazil. These moves were widely popular with the old political brokers of São Paulo and Minas Gerais, fearing now more than ever for their enshrined power.

Despite the intellectual, military and political contestation to the political regime, it remained solidly installed and Bernardes' Conservatives were favoured in the upcoming 1923 election. However, other events would soon change the Conservative Party.

In Rio Grande do Sul, ruled by Liberal Governor Borges de Medeiros since 1908, the Conservatives and Radicals were hoping to make important gains in the 1923 election, with their top candidate Joaquim Francisco de Assis Brasil. Assis Brasil, an old Republican from the late days of Dom Pedro II, had originally been out of the political game following the old Republican Party's decline following the failed 1889 coup. However, the Conservatives and Radicals had recruited the elder politician and respected local statesman to run, mostly to oppose Borges de Medeiros's authoritarian and controversial management of the province. Bernardes, whose relations with the leaders of the Riograndense Liberals (Borges de Medeiros, Fonseca and Machado) were terrible, quietly intervened in the province (violating the constitution and the 'federal reform' of the 1890s) in favour of Assis Brasil.

Nationally, however, the situation proved more peaceful, and Bernardes' Conservative government was popular with the Paulista and mineiros power-brokers and the Liberals were divided and leaderless since the 1920 defeat. The Radicals, still led by Müller, created a large alliance including the fledgling Brazilian radical left (including the banned PCB and the old Socialists) and the Brazilian modernist movement. In June, the Conservatives won a slightly larger majority.

Chamber of Deputies

Conservative 90 (+4)
Liberal 54 (-2)
Radical Alliance 21 (-2)

Senate

Conservative 22 (+3)
Liberal 20 (-1)
Radical Alliance 1 (-2)



In provincial elections, the situation in the main provinces remained similar to 1920. Raul Soares and Washington Luís won by landslide margins in their own provinces, and Nilo Peçanha once again narrowly held on. However, the main race was of course in Rio Grande do Sul. The results, tallied by the provincial government, gave Borges 49% of the vote against 47% for Assis Brasil' Conservative-Radical coalition.

With a poor economy and a dishonest election, the province rose in revolt. Supported by the middle class, a good number of German immigrants and most of the national government in Rio, Assis Brasil's partisans lacked organization and the crucial local military and oligarchic support. Meanwhile, in Rio, Bernardes was plotting with Assis Brasil's lieutenants to engineer a plot to assassinate Borges and install a Assis Brasil-led Conservative government in Porto Alegre. However, Bernardes' illegal intervention was noted by the Emperor, who for the first time in a very long time waged his moderating power in August 1923 by dismissing Bernardes and forcing a ceasefire in the Gaúcho province. Dom Pedro, a strict follower of the constitution, had not digested Bernardes' violation of the constitution in his intervention in Rio Grande do Sul and had wanted to flew imperial muscle partly to re-assert imperial control and final veto in a political system where contestation was rising.

In Rio Grande do Sul, a ceasefire was signed in August 1923 and was followed by a deal between the warring factions in September. Under the deal, Borges would remain as Governor until 1926 but would govern in a coalition with Assis Brasil's supporters and Borges' more authoritarian power blocks were removed.

NEXT: A new leader for Brazil... take guesses!

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Premiers:

Zacarias de Góis e Vasconcelos: 1866-1870
José Maria da Silva Paranhos, Visconde do Rio Branco: 1870-1875
Luís Alves de Lima e Silva, Duque de Caxias: 1875-1878
José Antônio Saraiva: 1878-1884
Franklin Américo de Meneses Dória: 1884-1885
João Lustosa da Cunha Paranaguá, Marquês de Paranaguá: 1885
João Maurício Wanderley, Barão de Cotejipe: 1885-1887
João Alfredo Correia de Oliveira: 1887-1888
Afonso Celso de Assis Figueiredo, Visconde de Ouro Preto: 1888-1893
Lafayette Rodrigues Pereira: 1893-1897
Rodrigo Augusto da Silva: 1897-1901
Eduardo Ernesto da Gama Cerqueira:1901
Francisco de Paula Rodrigues Alves: 1901-1906
Afonso Augusto Moreira Pena: 1906-1909
Venceslau Brás Pereira Gomes: 1909-1912
Manuel Ferraz de Campos Sales: 1912-1913
Altino Arantes Marques: 1913-1915
Hermes Rodrigues da Fonseca: 1915-1920
José Joaquim Seabra: 1920
Artur da Silva Bernardes: 1920-1923


Governors of Minas Gerais:

Francisco Silviano de Almeida Brandão: 1896-1901
Afonso Augusto Moreira Pena: 1901-1906
João Pinheiro da Silva: 1906-1908
Venceslau Brás Pereira Gomes: 1908-1909
Júlio Bueno Brandão: 1909-1914
Artur da Silva Bernardes: 1914-1920
Raul Soares de Moura: 1920-

Governors of SP:

Pedro Vicente de Azevedo: 1896-1902
Manuel Ferraz de Campos Sales: 1902-1912
Altino Arantes Marques: 1912-1913
Manuel Joaquim de Albuquerque Lins: 1913-1917
Altino Arantes Marques: 1917-1920
Washington Luís Pereira de Sousa: 1920-

Governors of Rio de Janeiro:

José Bento de Araújo: 1896-1902
Quintino Antônio Ferreira de Sousa Bocaiúva: 1902-1908
Francisco Chaves de Oliveira Botelho: 1908-1911
Nilo Procópio Peçanha: 1911-1920
Nilo Procópio Peçanha: 1920-

Governors of Rio Grande do Sul:

Gaspar da Silveira Martins: 1896-1901
Justo de Azambuja Rangel: 1901-1902
Carlos Barbosa Gonçalves: 1902-1908
Antônio Augusto Borges de Medeiros: 1908-

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A Feeble Regime: 1923-1929

Following Bernardes' dismissal by the Emperor, the Conservative caucus elected the Governor of São Paulo, Washington Luís as President of the Council. Luís was a popular politician, and had good relations with Minas Gerais and other states. His accession to the top spot in government was greeted with optimism, and his first move was to lift the state of siege and declare a general amnesty for political prisoners. Carlos de Campos succeeded him as Governor of São Paulo.

However, Luís was soon faced with renewed troubles. The economic growth was slow, and the close alliance between the states of São Paulo and Minas Gerais alienated other states, notably Rio Grande do Sul and certain Northeastern states such as Bahia and Pernambuco. Furthermore, the military remained skeptic of the Conservatives and offered only lukewarm support to Luís.

On July 5, the city of São Paulo broke out in revolt against the provincial government of Carlos de Campos, who had grown unpopular. Young military officers, led by General Isidoro Dias Lopes, occupied the city and the provincial government was forced to flee the city. However, government troops led by Colonel Fernando Prestes de Albuquerque (Provincial Secretary of Defense in the Campos government) and supported by light artillery and aviation from Minas Gerais, were able to successfully lay siege to the city and weakened the rebel's hold on the city through numerous bombing raids. Without aerial support, the rebels fled the city and marched towards to Três Lagoas on the border with Mato Grosso, where government backup troops were stationed. However, Isidoro's rebels were defeated by the governmental forces in Três Lagoas and forced to retreat, first towards Foz do Iguaçu in Paraná and later towards Rio Grande do Sul, where rebels led by the young Luis Carlos Prestes were leading a small-scale revolt. By August, São Paulo was pacified at the price of thousands of deaths and bombing raids. However, in October, Prestes' rebels in Rio Grande do Sul broke out in revolt, but they were forced to retreat. Prestes' rebels formed the Prestes Column, which marched through the lush jungle of inner Brazil and western Brazil, escaping imperial troops.

The Emperor, fearful for peace in Brazil as well as his own power, forced Carlos de Campos to resign as Governor in favour of a coalition led by Senator Antônio da Silva Prado and supported by Fernando Prestes de Albuquerque. He also forced Washington Luís to lift the state of siege in Rio Grande do Sul, Paraná and São Paulo as quickly as possible to allow for a return to order.

Raul Soares, the Governor of Minas Gerais died in August 1924 and was succeded by Fernando de Melo Viana, a close ally of Washington Luís.

To appease the growing urban working class, the Conservative government in 1925 decreed the right to 15 vacation days per year for industrial, commercial and bank workers in Brazil. Yet, anti-union legislation remained stringent and the number of 'foreigners' expelled from Brazil for alledgedly formenting revolt and workers' movements increased during Washington Luís' term in office.

On the foreign policy front, the Conservatives were far more isolationists than the Liberals had been once in power. It regarded the League and Europe with growing suspicion, and it was less keen on efforts at South American unity. Yet, Brazil attended the Pan-American Santiago Conference in 1923 and supported efforts to arbitrate conflicts and border disputes between American nations. In 1924, Brazil's Foreign Minister, José Félix Alves Pacheco, signed a treaty of cooperation with the United Kingdom. The Conservatives aligned themselves with Europe, especially London.

There was growing discontent with the political and economic system in Brazil, but the Liberal opposition could not take advantage of it. It remained divided, leader-less and its policy was extremely similar to that of the Conservatives in that it did not advocate any reforms of importance. Only the Radicals, led by the aging Lauro Müller, were the only ones able to capitalize on the unpopularity of the political system.

In the 1926 elections, thanks to their unorthodox methods and electoral deals with various states, the Conservatives were returned with a large majority. The Liberals won one of their worst results ever, while the Radicals won their best result ever.

Chamber of Deputies

Conservative 98 (+8)
Liberal 41 (-13)
Radical Alliance 26 (+5)

Senate

Conservative 24 (+2)
Liberal 16 (-4)
Radical Alliance 3 (+2)



In provincial elections, the Conservatives led by Fernando de Melo Viana won in Minas Gerais and Carlos de Campos won a stunning comeback in São Paulo following the retirement of Antônio da Silva Prado. In Rio de Janeiro, Prado's son, Antônio da Silva Prado Júnior finally defeated Peçanha, who failed to win sufficent Liberal and Radical support. In Rio Grande do Sul, Borges' forced retirement (as per the 1923 deal) led to the election of a young Liberal provincial deputy, Getúlio Vargas.

The second term of Washington Luís in government was relatively quiet compared to the first one. Between 1926 and 1929, Brazil's economic growth picked up and coffee exports reached new heights in 1926 and 1927. Industrial growth in the country was also picking up speed, notably with the opening of a General Motors (GM) car plant in the industrial hinterland around São Paulo. As a result of this industrial growth, the Confederação Geral do Trabalho (CGT) trade union was founded in 1927.

In São Paulo, Governor Campos died in 1927 and his death led to a succession crisis within the Paulista Conservative organization. On one side, Fernando Prestes de Albuquerque supported the candidacy of his son, Júlio Prestes agianst that of Antônio da Silva Prado. In the end, the young maverick Júlio Prestes defeated Antônio da Silva Prado. However, this led to an internal split in the party led by Antônio da Silva Prado and his son, the Governor of Rio, Prado Júnior. They became Independent Conservatives.

Yet, Washington Luís resisted calls for political reforms from the Radicals (led by Müller's ally, Antônio Pereira da Silva e Oliveira, following Müller's death in 1926) and some Liberals. The Conservatives insisted that electoral reform should be a provincial issue.

Between 1927 and 1929, Washington Luís' government became noted for its internal development policies, pushing for the construction and paving of a number of important roads between the coastal cities.

In June 1929, the Conservatives went into the electoral campaign as the heavy favourites, pushed by strong economic results and development inland. The Liberals were still weak and divided, and no figure could emerge as a national leader. The Conservatives won another term, their fourth electoral victory since 1920, but the Liberals picked up speed, most notably in Rio Grande do Sul, where Governor Getúlio Vargas proved extremely popular and a good vote machine for the party. Prado's Independent Conservatives allied with the Liberals, and won around 5 seats.

Chamber of Deputies

Conservative 87 (-11)
Liberal 50 (+9)
Radical Alliance 28 (+2)

Senate

Conservative 21 (-3)
Liberal 19 (+3)
Radical Alliance 3 (nc)



In provincial elections, Júlio Prestes won in São Paulo and Fernando de Melo Viana won in Minas Gerais. In Rio de Janeiro, Prado Júnior was re-elected in a landslide with Liberal support and the support of many Conservatives. Getúlio Vargas won over 60% of the votes running for re-election in Rio Grande do Sul, despite Assis Brasil's candidacy.

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Premiers:

Zacarias de Góis e Vasconcelos: 1866-1870
José Maria da Silva Paranhos, Visconde do Rio Branco: 1870-1875
Luís Alves de Lima e Silva, Duque de Caxias: 1875-1878
José Antônio Saraiva: 1878-1884
Franklin Américo de Meneses Dória: 1884-1885
João Lustosa da Cunha Paranaguá, Marquês de Paranaguá: 1885
João Maurício Wanderley, Barão de Cotejipe: 1885-1887
João Alfredo Correia de Oliveira: 1887-1888
Afonso Celso de Assis Figueiredo, Visconde de Ouro Preto: 1888-1893
Lafayette Rodrigues Pereira: 1893-1897
Rodrigo Augusto da Silva: 1897-1901
Eduardo Ernesto da Gama Cerqueira:1901
Francisco de Paula Rodrigues Alves: 1901-1906
Afonso Augusto Moreira Pena: 1906-1909
Venceslau Brás Pereira Gomes: 1909-1912
Manuel Ferraz de Campos Sales: 1912-1913
Altino Arantes Marques: 1913-1915
Hermes Rodrigues da Fonseca: 1915-1920
José Joaquim Seabra: 1920
Artur da Silva Bernardes: 1920-1923
Washington Luís Pereira de Sousa: 1923-


Governors of Minas Gerais:

Francisco Silviano de Almeida Brandão: 1896-1901
Afonso Augusto Moreira Pena: 1901-1906
João Pinheiro da Silva: 1906-1908
Venceslau Brás Pereira Gomes: 1908-1909
Júlio Bueno Brandão: 1909-1914
Artur da Silva Bernardes: 1914-1920
Raul Soares de Moura: 1920-1924
Fernando de Melo Viana: 1924-

Governors of SP:

Pedro Vicente de Azevedo: 1896-1902
Manuel Ferraz de Campos Sales: 1902-1912
Altino Arantes Marques: 1912-1913
Manuel Joaquim de Albuquerque Lins: 1913-1917
Altino Arantes Marques: 1917-1920
Washington Luís Pereira de Sousa: 1920-1923
Carlos de Campos: 1923-1924
Antônio da Silva Prado: 1924-1926
Carlos de Campos: 1924-1927
Júlio Prestes de Albuquerque: 1927-

Governors of Rio de Janeiro:

José Bento de Araújo: 1896-1902
Quintino Antônio Ferreira de Sousa Bocaiúva: 1902-1908
Francisco Chaves de Oliveira Botelho: 1908-1911
Nilo Procópio Peçanha: 1911-1920
Nilo Procópio Peçanha: 1920-1926
Antônio da Silva Prado Júnior: 1926-

Governors of Rio Grande do Sul:

Gaspar da Silveira Martins: 1896-1901
Justo de Azambuja Rangel: 1901-1902
Carlos Barbosa Gonçalves: 1902-1908
Antônio Augusto Borges de Medeiros: 1908-1926
Getúlio Dornelles Vargas: 1926-

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A New Beginning: 1930

In October 1929, Wall Street crashed, sending the economy of the United States and the quasi-entirety down with it. In Brazil, coffee exports in 1929 fell drastically, almost reaching a record low and the government's debt increased. The old policy of coffee valorization could not work and was ruining the government's finances. The major states, Minas Gerais and São Paulo were turning bankrupt.

Washington Luís tried to cut spending, but he was forced by his party to maintain the valorization policy, which won him the continued support of a shaky party but led to a general worsening of the economic situation by December 1929. Protests erupted, and the small states of the Northeast as well as Rio Grande do Sul were threatening violent action if the government did not resign and a new government formed. In late 1929, the Liberal Governor of Paraíba, João Pessoa, was assassinated in a mysterious fashion and led to outbreak of violent clashes in the Northeast between various warring armed factions.

In January 1930, the situation was deteriorating rapidly with an economy still in decline and the country on the brink of civil war. The Emperor called Washington Luís to Rio de Janeiro, where he forced him to resign.

On January 15, 1930; the Emperor nominated the Liberal Governor of Rio Grande do Sul Getúlio Vargas as Prime Minister of the Empire of Brazil. The same day, the Emperor dissolved Parliament and called for snap general elections in February 1930.

The campaign was held under weird circumstances. The Liberals campaigned as the de-facto incumbents, but Vargas himself did little campaigning except for unveiling the program of the Liberal Party in Rio de Janeiro in late January. The Liberal program promised economic reforms, political reforms, and promised increased provincial powers and increased rights for workers and trade unions. The major figures of the tenente movement now supported the Liberals (and not the Radicals) as did many influential provincial figures. The Conservatives did very little campaigning, and their efforts at campaigning were blocked by the strong-arm tactics of certain Liberal leaders.

The Liberals won a landslide victory, while Conservatives and Radicals suffered major loses.

Chamber of Deputies

Liberal 102 (+52)
Conservative 48 (-39)
Radical Alliance 15 (-13)

Senate

Liberal 21 (+5)
Conservative 19 (-2)
Radical Alliance 0 (-3)



Vargas was called to form a permanent cabinet the next day. He formed a cabinet of national unity, one which included Afrânio de Mello Franco, a former Conservative as Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister, Osvaldo Aranha as Justice Minister, Lindolfo Collor at the head of a new Labour Ministry and Mauricio Lacerda, the new leader of the pro-Vargas Radicals as Education and Health Minister.

Vargas' main problem lay with the provinces, and especially São Paulo, the new Conservative power base. Governor Júlio Prestes remained a thorn in Vargas' side throughout 1930 by refusing to comply with national policies on coffee reform. Yet, Vargas was able to buy the support or tolerance of most provincial Conservative leaders by making smart promises and giving them assurances that he would not intervene directly into provincial affairs.

In 1930, the pressing issue was getting out of the economic spiral. Vargas decreed a policy of strict coffee burning by the government to destroy all surplus coffee in an attempt to increase coffee sales on the international market with more advantageous prices for a world hit hard by the Wall Street crash.

The ambitious Vargas saw his political future not in continuing the oligarchic politics of the pre-1929 era, but rather in nurturing the growing working classes as a political base. He knew, however, that such a base must be tightly controlled by the government if it was to be reliable and useful. In late 1930, Vargas passed a law formally recognizing trade unions but linking them to the Labour Ministry, and the office of the Prime Minister himself.

Júlio Prestes lost the confidence of the Conservatives in São Paulo because of his assertive policy against Rio. The Conservatives recognized Vargas' growing popularity and they forced him to resign in favour of Armando de Sales Oliveira. Meanwhile, however, Vargas set up a close ally of his, João Alberto Lins de Barros, as the leader of the Liberal Party in the province. João Alberto Lins de Barros' real job, however, was a game of political intrigues with the intention of setting up a reliable political network in São Paulo for Vargas.

next: 1931-1933

[Хahar 🤔]

We have reached the age of Vargas. Excellent.

Liberal 50 (+52)

Presumably you mean 102?

[Psychic Octopus]

Excellent!

What is going on in Europe, currently? Similar to OTL, or different?

[Хahar 🤔]

Excellent!

What is going on in Europe, currently? Similar to OTL, or different?

I doubt there would be many butterflies, given the insignificance of Brazil.

That said, what happened to the Portuguese branch of the House of Braganza?

[k-onmmunist]

Ahhh. Vargas. Just made this already excellent timeline even better.

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Consolidating Power: 1931-1934

Even after the 1930 elections, few thought that Vargas would be more than a mediocre short-lived Prime Minister. The Conservatives saw him as an inoffensive compromise leader chosen by the Emperor and the voters to weather through what they saw as a short-term bust in the economic cycle. They were confident that a gaúcho Prime Minister would not be able to break the old domination of Minas Gerais and São Paulo, only temporarily broken by contemporary conditions. Most compared him to Hermes da Fonseca, only with less prestige and support.
 
However that was to sorely underestimate Vargas' power and to completely misunderstand the profound impact of the Depression on Brazilian society, economics and politics. Vargas moved to assert his control. In Minas Gerais, Vargas gained support from Olegário Maciel, a Conservative known for his fascist and nationalist tendencies. In other states, he won the support of the old oligarchic machines by promising not to make major reforms endangering their positions.
 
However, Vargas needed to please the other faction which had brought him to power in 1930. The burgeoning middle-classes, made up of largely liberal and democratic elements, had been dissatisfied by the old Liberal-Conservative system and they saw Vargas, a minor player outside the political arena, as their hope for change. Many of these one-time Radical voters switched to support the Liberals in the 1930 electoral confirmation of Vargas' new regime. Many of the old tenentistas, notably Juarez Távora, Eduardo Gomes and Juracy Magalhães also supported Vargas' new regime. To please this demanding but rather weak faction of his 1930 electorate, Vargas decreed (bypassing Parliament) in May 1931 an electoral reform, the first major reform of the kind since the 1888 Dória Law. The major facets of the new law was the secret ballot, women's suffrage, an expansion of the size of the Chamber from 165 (the number had not changed since 1906) to 250 and the Senate from 43 to 60. The illiterates retained the vote, but since most were easily led into voting for the candidates endorsed by the coronels, so it offered little hope for major social reform in the sertão.
 
In June 1931, he decreed a vast reform of the electoral system for the election of deputies. There were to be 130 single-member seats and 120 seats elected through a proportional list system. The electoral reform showed the political skill of Vargas: through single-member districts, locals coronels could 'own' a constituency or build up a local stronghold with a strong link to their voters (or regimented followers, as was often the case) but with the list seats, Vargas sent a clear message to the old Radicals in favour of political reform.
 
But Vargas also knew that he needed to assert his personal control over the country. He took to governing by decrees and developed an excellent working relation with Dom Pedro III, who shared some of Vargas' authoritarian and nationalist feelings. In 1931, as part of his electoral reform, Vargas also arranged for an unofficial transfers of powers from Parliament to the office of Prime Minister. Vargas' reform reduced parliamentary oversight and gave him exclusive authority to intervene in the provinces and removed the Parliament's right to dismiss cabinet ministers by a parliamentary vote. To an extent never seen before, Vargas made the office of Prime Minister the top position in the Brazilian political system. Vargas also built good relations with the clergy, assuring religious education in public schools.
 
Vargas, however, quickly came to the realization that the old tenentes were extremely demanding allies who in the end provided little electoral clientèle. General Isidoro Dias Lopes, the War Minister and famous leader of the 1924 Paulista revolt, fell out with Vargas over Vargas' over-reliance on government-by-decree. He was replaced in the cabinet by a Vargas loyalist, Góis Monteiro, who assured Vargas the full support of the army. Slowly, he freed himself from his old allies.
 
In terms of economic policy, Vargas' government decreed in 1931 a default on Brazil's foreign debt and renegotiated after a 3-years funding loan from abroad. Attempts at fiscal rigour (balanced budget) were cut short due to the government's purchase of coffee stocks and then by a drought in the northeast in 1932.
 
Vargas, in a method to assert his power over the country, was determined to build an electoral clientèle of his own within the divided and marginalized urban working-class. In 1931 and 1932, Parliament passed a number of populist laws which, among other things, prevented abusive bank interest rates or regulated women's labour. Yet, Vargas in 1932 remained a rather conservative leader. He cracked down as early on 1931 on the old trade unions, maintained the ban on the PCB despite decreeing a general amnesty for all other political prisoners, and led a very anti-communist policy overall. He would not tolerate the PCB as a rival for the votes and support of the Brazilian working-class.
 
Vargas faced opposition from factions of the old elite which he had sidelined in 1930. The Conservatives remained strong in a majority of provincial governments, thanks to the results of the 1929 provincial elections. In São Paulo, the Conservatives were still strong under the leadership of Governor Armando de Sales Oliveira, who, although more moderate than his aggressive predecessor Júlio Prestes, remained an opponent of Vargas, criticizing Vargas' authoritarian style of governance and the declining importance of Parliament. In his home state, the old oligarch Borges de Medeiros now opposed Vargas, but the power of General José Antônio Flores da Cunha and his local Riograndense militia prevented Borges from leading an armed revolt. Antônio Carlos de Andrada, who had originally been a Conservative ally of Vargas in 1930, criticized Vargas' style of governance and re-joined the opposition benches ahead of the 1932 provincial and 1933 general elections.
 
The 1932 provincial elections proved a major victory for Vargas' Liberals. The Conservatives, who were convinced that voters would now reject Vargas' new reforms and unusual authoritarian governance, were surprised that the voters continued to put their trust in the Liberals. The Conservatives did hold São Paulo, if only due to the unpopularity of the 'carpetbagger' João Alberto Lins de Barros. In Minas Gerais, however, the incumbent Conservatives, wrecked by deep internal divisions, were swept out of office in a massive landslide by the local Liberal-Conservative Party led by Olegário Maciel. Flores da Cunha established himself in Vargas' home province, while Juracy Magalhães won a landslide in Bahia. In Rio de Janeiro, Antônio da Silva Prado Júnior, now a Liberal ally of Vargas, won re-election. Borges de Medeiros' Gaúcho Front, allied to the Conservatives, did poorly in Rio Grande do Sul.

The Conservatives were convinced that Vargas would lose in 1933. But the strong Liberal victory in 1932, especially the symbolic landslide in Minas Gerais, forced the Conservatives to shed their unbridled optimism about 1933. During the campaign, the Conservatives put up a divided front, with two major figures vying for the spotlight. On one hand, Paulista Governor Armando de Sales Oliveira tried to appeal to the marginalized oligarchs but on the other hand, Antônio Carlos de Andrada tried to appeal to the reformers and democrats who had fallen out with Vargas. Neither worked, and Vargas' Liberals won a landslide victory.
 
Chamber of Deputies
 
Liberal and Liberal-Conservative 54.8% winning 145 seats (+43)
79 DS, 66 PLS
Conservative and Gaúcho Front 37.8% winning 92 seats (+44)
46 DS, 46 PLS
Radical Alliance 6.6% winning 13 seats (-2)
5 DS, 8 PLS
Others 0.8% winning 0 seats (nc)
 
Senate
 
Liberal 33 (+9)
Conservative 27 (+8)
 


Vargas was comfortably confirmed as Prime Minister, and his opposition was even more in disarray. In late 1933, he passed the first nationalist laws, limiting foreign ownership of land and companies. At the same time, he was quickly moving to kill the remnants of the fledgling Radical Alliance, whose support had been eaten up quasi-entirely by Vargas. He had the support of Maurício de Lacerda, Minister of Education and Health and the very pro-Vargas leader of the Radicals. Vargas' ultimate goal was a merger between Liberals and Radicals, and the creation of a new party which would serve as his personal electoral machine.

In late 1933, newly-elected Governor of Minas Gerais Olegário Maciel died. Instead of having the Liberal caucus in the provincial legislature elect his successor, Vargas intervened directly in the provincial politics of Minas Gerais and imposed a little-known deputy and former mayor, Benedito Valladares as Governor. His intervention in Minas Gerais showed that Vargas was intending to do likewise in other provinces if the situation arose.

Vargas' authority as Prime Minister, however, was soon to be threatened by extra-parliamentary organizations. On the right, the Brazilian Integralist Action (AIB), founded in late 1932 by modernist writer Plínio Salgado, was based in the reformist thoughts of the 1920s but Integralisms, influenced by Italian fascism, appealed to nationalist, conservative Christian values, and a respect for established authority and a strong traditional monarchist line. The Integralists were not organized as a political party and did not take part in the 1933 elections, but it organized as a party by 1934. The AIB was finding support from Italian and German Brazilians in the south as well as within the middle-class, showing that Vargas' original support with the middle-class was starting to weaken. On the left, the National Liberation Alliance (ALN), a coalition of communists, socialist, radicals and old tenentes but really a front for the banned PCB and allegedly under orders from Comintern in Moscow, was led clandestinely by Luís Carlos Prestes.

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Premiers:

Zacarias de Góis e Vasconcelos: 1866-1870
José Maria da Silva Paranhos, Visconde do Rio Branco: 1870-1875
Luís Alves de Lima e Silva, Duque de Caxias: 1875-1878
José Antônio Saraiva: 1878-1884
Franklin Américo de Meneses Dória: 1884-1885
João Lustosa da Cunha Paranaguá, Marquês de Paranaguá: 1885
João Maurício Wanderley, Barão de Cotejipe: 1885-1887
João Alfredo Correia de Oliveira: 1887-1888
Afonso Celso de Assis Figueiredo, Visconde de Ouro Preto: 1888-1893
Lafayette Rodrigues Pereira: 1893-1897
Rodrigo Augusto da Silva: 1897-1901
Eduardo Ernesto da Gama Cerqueira:1901
Francisco de Paula Rodrigues Alves: 1901-1906
Afonso Augusto Moreira Pena: 1906-1909
Venceslau Brás Pereira Gomes: 1909-1912
Manuel Ferraz de Campos Sales: 1912-1913
Altino Arantes Marques: 1913-1915
Hermes Rodrigues da Fonseca: 1915-1920
José Joaquim Seabra: 1920
Artur da Silva Bernardes: 1920-1923
Washington Luís Pereira de Sousa: 1923-
Getúlio Dornelles Vargas: 1930-


Governors of Minas Gerais:

Francisco Silviano de Almeida Brandão: 1896-1901
Afonso Augusto Moreira Pena: 1901-1906
João Pinheiro da Silva: 1906-1908
Venceslau Brás Pereira Gomes: 1908-1909
Júlio Bueno Brandão: 1909-1914
Artur da Silva Bernardes: 1914-1920
Raul Soares de Moura: 1920-1924
Fernando de Melo Viana: 1924-1932
Olegário Dias Maciel: 1932-1933
Benedito Valadares Ribeiro: 1933-

Governors of SP:

Pedro Vicente de Azevedo: 1896-1902
Manuel Ferraz de Campos Sales: 1902-1912
Altino Arantes Marques: 1912-1913
Manuel Joaquim de Albuquerque Lins: 1913-1917
Altino Arantes Marques: 1917-1920
Washington Luís Pereira de Sousa: 1920-1923
Carlos de Campos: 1923-1924
Antônio da Silva Prado: 1924-1926
Carlos de Campos: 1924-1927
Júlio Prestes de Albuquerque: 1927-1930
Armando de Sales Oliveira: 1930-

Governors of Rio de Janeiro:

José Bento de Araújo: 1896-1902
Quintino Antônio Ferreira de Sousa Bocaiúva: 1902-1908
Francisco Chaves de Oliveira Botelho: 1908-1911
Nilo Procópio Peçanha: 1911-1920
Nilo Procópio Peçanha: 1920-1926
Antônio da Silva Prado Júnior: 1926-1930
Antônio da Silva Prado Júnior: 1932-

Governors of Rio Grande do Sul:

Gaspar da Silveira Martins: 1896-1901
Justo de Azambuja Rangel: 1901-1902
Carlos Barbosa Gonçalves: 1902-1908
Antônio Augusto Borges de Medeiros: 1908-1926
Getúlio Dornelles Vargas: 1926-1930
José Antônio Flores da Cunha: 1930

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Turbulence and Assertion: 1935-1936

Street fighting broke out in São Paulo between the Integralists and ALN by October 1934, and Vargas' government was seemingly losing its grip over the country. His popularity was sliding, as he was losing middle-class reformist support to both left and right. In July 1935, Vargas moved and outlawed the ALN. He was taking a marked anti-communist path, and the Integralists saw his move against the ALN as a move in their favour. During the summer of 1935, Vargas also decreed a new Public Safety Law, which cracked down on 'subversive groups' and effectively centralized law enforcement in Brazil, removing considerable powers from the provinces.

In the 1935 provincial elections, the Liberals on average sustained only minor loses. Valladares was comforted in his new office of Governor of Minas Gerais with over 68% of the votes. In São Paulo, Sales de Oliveira was also re-elected by a large margin. In Bahia, Conservative candidate Octávio Mangabeira failed to unseat Juracy Magalhães. In Rio, Liberal Protógenes Guimarães was elected. Salgado's AIB made important gains, especially in the south, where it became the second party behind the Liberals. In Paraná, Salgado came within 2% of the Liberal incumbent.

Despite Vargas' moves in the summer, the ALN itself moved in late November 1935 by staging poorly-organized risings in Natal, Recife and Rio. Thanks in part to their poor coordination and organization, the communist revolts in the Northeast and Rio were crushed in a matter of days and their failure played into Vargas' hand to justify a consolidation of his power. On November 26, the Emperor allowed Vargas to decree a state of siege throughout the country, which allowed for a large number of arrests by the police. In December 1935, the government strengthened the Public Safety Law passed during the summer.

In terms of economic policy, Vargas' government felt that it had the necessary support to break from the coffee-driven economy. Brazil's dependence on one crop (which was imported to only a handful of countries, mostly in Europe and the US) had shown its dangers in the 1929 crash, which had led the old governmental coffee valorization schemes to go bankrupt and Brazil to accumulate a growing foreign debt. In early 1935, Vargas formally oriented his government's economic policy in favour of import-substitution industrialization (ISI). As with other Latin American countries, the depression had led to a shortage of materials and goods. Import-substitution industrialization was both for Vargas a pragmatic solution to the economic crisis but also a nationalist move, with the goal of moving Brazil away from reliance on foreign imports and the development of a strong Brazilian industry. In Brazil, the use of ISI was primarily focused on the local exploitation and use of Brazil's mineral resources, such as steel. With the shift towards ISI, Vargas' government clearly took an interventionist route never taken in the past by either Liberal or Conservative governments. Until 1930, the state acted primarily in response to the demands of the export sector. Now, Vargas' government was to lead the industrialization drive.

In early 1935, with a Democratic Congress in Washington D.C. favourable to lower tariffs, a trade agreement was signed between Brazil and the US, thereby reducing tariffs on certain Brazilian goods entering the US and on around 30 American products entering Brazil. While the move could have been seen as an economically liberal move, the trade agreement reduced tariffs on American products vital for industrialization, such as factory equipment or heavy machinery.

In January 1933, Adolf Hitler came to power in Germany, and Nazi and fascist influence was already touching the Southern Cone, notably Argentina, where Uriburu's 1930 coup had been supported by the fascist Liga Patriótica Argentina. In Brazil, Nazi ideas were also finding fertile ground with the lower middle-class in the south of the country, notably in Rio Grande do Sul and Santa Catarina, home to a number of German immigrants. Fascist influence was represented by the AIB, which remained strong in southern Brazil, especially in Salgado's home province of Paraná.

Nazis were finding increasing support high in the power structure, notably within the governing Liberal Party. The Chief of the Police in Rio, Filinto Müller, was the most notable Brazilian Nazi sympathizer in high standing. The Nazis fought with pro-American elements in Vargas' cabinet to decide Brazil's foreign policy. As Hitler's popularity grew in Germany and his power over Europe increased, the Liberal government slowly moved towards Germany for funding and materials. In response to the ANL revolts, Filinto Müller had been able to extradite Prestes' wife, the Jewish German communist Olga Benário, to Nazi Germany. Yet, the pro-American elements in the cabinet urged Vargas to steer clear of Germany, claiming that the United States had been Brazil's natural ally in the past decades. Vargas appreciated some of the authoritarian methods of Berlin, the corporatist methods of Rome but understood that Washington remained Brazil's best bet in terms of funding and support for Brazil's ambitious ISI.

After the crushing of the ALN revolts, Vargas moved further to assert his power. He created a Department of Public Safety, Information and Propaganda attached to the Ministry of the Interior. He continued to privilege government-by-decree and he increasingly ignored Parliament. Within the Liberal Party, he quashed internal opposition and asserted his authority over provincial sections of the party. In early 1936, he renamed the party as the Liberal Party of Brazil (Partido Liberal do Brasil, PLdoB) and moved further to crush the remnants of the Radical Alliance. Lacerda, the leader of the Radicals, himself joined the PLdoB in 1936.

The Conservatives remained divided, and their only figure of importance, Sales de Oliveira, preferred to turn his attention to governing his province. Only Octávio Mangabeira emerged as the leader of a weak and divided party. Vargas, still very popular, soared to one of the largest landslides in Brazilian history. The PLdoB won almost two-thirds of the seats.
 
Chamber of Deputies
 
Liberal Party of Brazil 54.7% winning 165 seats (+20)
98 DS, 67 PLS
Conservative and Gaúcho Front 31.0% winning 69 seats (-23)
31 DS, 38 PLS
Brazilian Integralist Action 10.6% winning 13 seats (+13)
1 DS, 12 PLS
Radical Alliance 3.1% winning 3 seats (-10)
0 DS, 3 PLS
Others 0.6% winning 0 seats (nc)
 
Senate
 
Liberal 35 (+2)
Conservative 23 (-4)
Brazilian Integralist Action 2 (+2)
 

[k-onmmunist]

I love it

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New Patterns in Brazilian Society and Politics: 1936-1939

Strong from winning nearly two-thirds of the seats in the Chamber, Vargas moved his attention by late 1936 to further assert his authority as the undisputed leader of Brazil. One institution lay in his way - the Council of State. Originally created by the 1824 Constitution as an executive body of advisors to a monarch who in 1824 ruled undisputed, but abolished by the liberal reforms of 1834 before being restored by a conservative reaction in 1844, the Council had progressively become an archaic body representing the descendants of the sugar barons of the Northeast and part of the new coffee elite of the Southeast. It had little power, most of it having been progressively unofficially transferred to the legislature. But by 1936, Vargas saw the Council of State as a danger to his authority and his strong relations with the Emperor. The Council of State was increasingly opposed to Vargas' social reforms and his push for an interventionist state in the economy, and the Emperor was giving the Council a larger role. Vargas moved quickly, before the Council could lead a conservative (or classical liberal, some would say) reaction to Vargas' reforms, but most importantly his authority.

In January 1937, Vargas' government proposed a wide-reaching constitutional reform embodied by the Second Additional Act (the first Additional Act had abolished the Council of State and led a wave of decentralization in 1834, but was repealed quasi-entirely in 1844). The Second Additional Act's major reforms included:

• Abolishing the Council of State
• Removing provincial oversight of local commerce, industry and public services
• Transferring authority for inter-provincial commerce and industrial development to the national government from provinces and independent bodies
• Institutionalizing the office of Prime Minister and granting the Prime Minister the authority to appoint ambassadors, diplomats, delegates, emissaries and public servants with the Emperor's consent
• A non-confidence motion in the government would take a three-fifths majority in both chambers to be carried
• Giving the Emperor (following consultation of the government) the authority to appoint caretaker interim governors, local officials or mayors in provinces, districts or towns prone to 'civil disturbances' and 'threats to public safety'
• Creation of a Tribunal of Public Safety with power to arrest and try those suspected or guilty of 'subversive acts' or 'acts against the Empire'

The Second Additional Act passed the Chamber of Deputies in the summer of 1937 with the support of almost all Liberal and Integralist deputies and limited support from Conservatives and one Radical. The Radicals denounced the reform as a move towards authoritarianism, the Conservatives decried the abolition of the Council of State and some Liberals, most notably Vargas' early tenentes allies broke with the government on the issue. Those Liberals who broke ranks with the government included Juracy Magalhães (Governor of Bahia), Juarez Távora (Minister of Transportation) and Eduardo Gomes (Liberal Senator), all prominent tenente leaders of the 1920s active in the Liberal Party. The passage of the Second Additional Act marked a definite break from the idealistic liberal views of the tenentes in favour of a more populist and authoritarian views of Vargas and his closest allies.

The Council of State had been the base of the sugar barons of the Northeast, and their support  remained vital for Vargas, whose coalition included a number of leading Northeasterners. In order to assuage their fears that Vargas would quash their regional and personal interests, Vargas allied with them to quash peasant rebellions and banditry.

While asserting his power, Vargas also moved to cultivate a new Brazilian identity and sense of nationalism. In the past, neither major parties had used much nationalist rhetoric and Brazil's economy was entirely dependent on the sale of one crop to a handful of markets and the importation of goods from abroad. The Modern Arts Week in 1922 had led to the birth of the first nationalist movements, but these were developments in the artistic community rather than in the political class. As in much of Latin America, the Great Depression, which resulted in a lack of foreign goods, led to the growth of local industry and this encouraged a nationalist sentiment. In 1937, Vargas' government pushed through additional laws limiting foreign ownership of land and companies, and Vargas' government intended to nationalize a number of existing Brazilian companies. In late 1938, the Parliament passed a law giving the national government full control of the exploitation, regulation and distribution of petroleum in Brazil. In 1939, oil was discovered in Bahia.

The development of the Brazilian interior (the centre-west, including the vast empty lands of Mato Grosso) was a vital point in Vargas' nationalist governance. His government inaugurated in late 1938 a road linking Bahia with Rio, further expanded to Recife by 1940. Rail links in the south and southeast doubled, and the government encouraged colonization of the interior and of undeveloped regions of the Northeast and Amazon, notably to develop the struggling rubber industry.

The 1938 provincial elections saw another landslide for the Liberals. In São Paulo, Salles de Oliveira's retirement led to the election of Ademar de Barros, a Liberal though originally an opponent of Vargas. In Rio, Vargas' son-in-law, Admiral Ernâni do Amaral Peixoto was elected Governor. The only disappointment was Juracy Magalhães' re-election as a Conservative in Bahia. In Rio Grande do Sul, Flores da Cunha, Vargas' former protege in his home province, had broken with the government in 1937 and was defeated for re-election by Osvaldo Cordeiro de Farias, a military officer close to Vargas.

Following the elections, Vargas proceeded to a cabinet shuffle. Osvaldo Aranha, the former Minister of Justice and incumbent Brazilian Ambassador in Washington, became Minister of Foreign Affairs while Francisco Campos became Minister of Justice. The Chief of the Police in Rio, Filinto Müller, became Interior Minister while General Eurico Gaspar Dutra replaced Góis Monteiro as War Minister.

The nomination of Aranha, a close friend of President Roosevelt and a keen pro-American element, was interpreted by some circles as a clear shift in the government's foreign policy. But Filinto Müller, a known fascist sympathizer and a guest of Heinrich Himmler in Berlin in 1937, received a major promotion as well. Campos also represented a pro-German and fascist-leaning wing of the government, and pro-German factions remained dominant in the military. Vargas continued to play both sides at the same time.

In the regional context, Vargas' government sought to establish Brazil as a regional leader. Brazil attended the 1938 and 1939 Pan-American Conferences. However, Argentina's Foreign Minister, Carlos Saveedra Lamas, had gained widespread notoriety and praise during his tenure (1932-1938) for his efforts to end the Chaco War between Paraguay and Bolivia, and to spearhead efforts at collective security in the continent. Brazil watched Argentina's action with skepticism and an ounce of jealousy.

Vargas sought a fourth term in office in the 1939 election, and he faced a reinvigorated Conservative opposition, now led by Juracy Magalhães and renamed as the Conservative Democratic Union (UDC). The Conservatives hoped that Magalhães would be able to deliver the Northeast to them while doing well with the urban middle-classes and wealthy liberal elements in the southeast. However, Vargas remained popular and benefited from the support of the military as well as anti-communist right-leaning elements. The Liberals won a fourth straight victory, and they ended up with three-fifths of the seats in Parliament,

Chamber of Deputies
 
Liberal Party of Brazil 51.9% winning 150 seats (-15)
87 DS, 63 PLS
Conservative Democratic Union 34.7% winning 84 seats (+15)
42 DS, 42 PLS
Brazilian Integralist Action 10.9% winning 14 seats (+1)
1 DS, 13 PLS
Radical Alliance 1.8% winning 2 seats (-1)
0 DS, 2 PLS
Others 0.7% winning 0 seats (nc)
 
Senate
 
Liberal Party of Brazil 32 (-3)
Conservative Democratic Union 25 (+2)
Brazilian Integralist Action 3 (+1)
 

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World at War: 1939-1942

On September 1, 1939, Nazi Germany invaded Poland, plunging Europe and most of the world into a second world war. Unlike in 1914, when Brazil had quickly entered the war thanks to the strong pro-Allied sentiment in the Imperial Family and political class, there was no desire for Brazil to enter the war in September 1939. By September 3, 1939; when Britain and France declared war on Germany; the Parliament passed a resolution proclaiming Brazil's neutrality in the conflict. The government saw neutrality as the most advantageous position for Brazil, as it would allow Brazil to trade with both the Axis and Allies and reap the benefits of trading with both. Only certain pro-Allied Conservatives wished for a declaration of war on Germany, and the Integralists, secretly funded by Rome, were supportive of declaration of war on the Allied powers.

Almost all other American nations declared their neutrality by 1939 as well. While Argentina's government was close to Great Britain and had an economy largely dependent on British attitudes, its military's pro-German attitude prevented the government from declaring war on the Axis.

In mid-1940, the members of the Pan American Union formed a mutual defense pact during a meeting in Havana. The pact was aimed at guaranteeing collective security in the Americas, and Brazil was represented by Osvaldo Aranha.

At home, the government continued a policy of industrialization and internal development aided by increasing American investment or funding. On May 1, 1940 the government announced the creation of a minimum wage and Parliament passed a law guaranteeing employment stability after ten years of employment. At the same time, the government pushed for the creation of a Brazilian steel industry. However, the growth of Brazilian industry, especially the steel working and mining industry, required foreign investment.

Emperor Dom Pedro III died on January 29, 1940 at the age of 65. The late Emperor was buried in the Imperial crypt of the Cathedral of São Pedro de Alcântara, in a solemn ceremony attended notably by US Secretary of State Cordell Hull. He was succeeded by Prince Imperial Pedro Gastão as Dom Pedro IV, Emperor of Brazil.

Foreign investment pushed Rio closer and closer to Washington over the year 1940 and 1941, thanks largely to the pro-American policies of Osvaldo Aranha, the Foreign Minister. In early 1941, the Washington Accords were signed between Brazil and the United States, giving Brazil over $100 million dollars in loans for the development of Brazilian industry.

The 1941 provincial elections were remarkably stable, although the Liberals made slight gains, mainly at the expense of the AIB, whose positions in the south slowly receded. In Bahia, Magalhães was defeated for re-elected by Renato Onofre Pinto Aleixo, a close ally of Vargas and leader of the provincial Liberals.

On December 7, 1941, Japanese forces bombed Pearl Harbor, leading the United States into the war in Asia and Europe. The United States, enjoying great influence over most smaller South American nations, pushed them to join Washington in declaring war on the Axis. Minor nations including Panama, Costa Rica, the Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Haiti, Honduras, Nicaragua, Guatemala and Cuba declared war on the Axis only a few days after the attack on Pearl Harbor. However, continental South America remained largely neutral.

At the Pan American Conference held in Rio de Janeiro in January 1942, the United States was able to push Brazil and most other South American nations except Argentina and Chile to condemn the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor and push towards a break in diplomatic relations between the Americas and the Axis.

The Vargas government remained opposed to war, even by early 1942, but under the influence of Aranha and Washington's diplomatic and economic pressure, the government acquiesced to a secret pact with Washington which secured American investment in the construction of a major steel mill in Volta Redonda (RJ) in return for Brazilian support of the American war effort and the concession to Washington of strategic military bases in the Northeast. Ahead of the June elections, the government cracked down slowly on internal pro-Axis movements and fascist sympathizers. In April 1942, in a further move to please Washington, the government banned the Integralist Action (AIB).

The 1942 elections were not fought over the issue of Brazilian participation in the war effort, but mostly on internal issues. The Conservatives remained divided, demoralized and unable to attack the incumbent government on any major front. The Liberals won a fifth term in office

Chamber of Deputies
 
Liberal Party of Brazil 53.7% winning 147 seats (-3)
82 DS, 65 PLS
Conservative Democratic Union 37.8% winning 92 seats (+8)
46 DS, 46 PLS
Others and Independents 4.9% winning 6 seats (+6)
1 DS, 5 PLS
Radical Alliance 3.6% winning 5 seats (+3)
1 DS, 4 PLS
 
Senate
 
Liberal Party of Brazil 33 (+1)
Conservative Democratic Union 27 (+2)
 

[k-onmmunist]

Very interesting The World War shall have interesting implications on this TL.

[Lief 🗽]

Are there any socialist/social democratic/labor movements in the Empire?

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Are there any socialist/social democratic/labor movements in the Empire?

Yes, and I've already given a passing mention in the past posts (well, not the most recent ones) to some of them. Basically, trade unions were independent in the 1910-1930 era, and were divided, small, weak and repressed by governments. Vargas and his allies took them over and slowly corporatized them starting in 1930. The working-class is staunchly Liberal, obviously, and actual socialist parties are either banned or tiny.

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Brazil at War: 1942-1945

During the month of August 1942, German and Italian submarine attacks on Brazilian shipping increased drastically, as a result of worsening relations between Rio and Berlin as well as the Rio Declaration in January 1942. Between August 15 and 17, the U-507 sank five Brazilian merchant and passenger vessels in a row. In Rio, anti-German sentiment increased with news of the sinking of the five ships and police needed to be called in to quell rioters who were attacking and looting German-owned shops and homes in downtown Rio.

On August 22, Prime Minister Vargas addressed a joint session of Parliament in Rio.

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Vargas concluded his speech to thunderous acclamation from the government and opposition benches alike, and the joint session of Parliament voted 299 against 9 for a declaration of war against Germany and Italy. Only five Independents and four Radicals voted against the resolution.

Yet, despite the vast popularity of the war in Parliament, Vargas had needed to convince the last reticent figures in his government about the need for a declaration of war. In late July, he had already silently dismissed the two leading fascist sympathizers in his government; Justice Minister Francisco Campos, replaced by Alexandre Marcondes Machado Filho and Interior Minister Filinto Müller, who was not replaced. General Eurico Gaspar Dutra, also a leading pro-German figure, was finally convinced to support the war.

Upon declaration of war, the government set about assembling the fighting force which Vargas had talked about in his August 22 address. Under War Minister Dutra, the government aimed to build a force of 100,000 men to fight in Italy by 1943-1944.

The government also increased cooperation with the United States. Complementing the 1941 Washington Accords, the Brazilian government in December 1942 allowed the United States to build a number of air bases in the Nordeste, a key strategic region for the US air force flying to Europe. In January 1943, Brazil signed the Atlantic Charter and adhered to the Organization of the United Nations and on January 29, Vargas met with US President Roosevelt, going to Casablanca, in Natal. Vargas declared himself absolutely certain of victory, judging that "Germany's military power... was collapsing... slowly but surely, and the combined might of Brazil, the United States and the Allied powers will bring it down".


Prime Minister Vargas with US President Franklin D. Roosevelt, Natal 1943.

The war also led to an outburst of Brazilian nationalism and a boom in the Brazilian economy, pushed by a new rubber boom in the Nordeste and Amazon to feed the Allies with an alternative source of rubber now that rubber plantations in southeast Asia were occupied by Japan. The government also encouraged nationalism, but the new nationalism was different than the old 'European' nationalism of the 1920s in that more and more intellectuals recognized the contributions of Native Americans to the Brazilian culture and psyche. In fact, the government decreed April 19, 1944 as the "Day of the Indian".

At home, the marking event of 1943 was the passage by Parliament of the Consolidação das Leis do Trabalho, a set of laws consolidating all past labour laws passed, including minimum wage increases, unemployment insurance and working hours regulations, into a single law and creating a special tribunal to deal with labour disputes.

In late 1943, the Imperial Brazilian Expeditionary Force (FEIB) was created and placed under the command of Dutra in Rio and Generals Mascarenhas de Moraes and Zenóbio da Costa (in charge of the infantry, or the 1st Imperial Brazilian Division). The force, which ended up compromising of only 41,000 men embarked for Italy for frontline combat on the Gothic Line as part of the 15th Army Group under Field Marshal Harold Alexander, within the U.S. Fifth Army, IV Corps commanded by Major-General Willis D. Crittenberger. In late 1944 and early 1945, the Brazilians won a major victory directly against the Nazis at Monte Castello. Between February and March 1945, the Brazilian Division and the U.S. 10th Mountain Division captured important positions on the Apennines, which deprived the Germans of key artillery positions on the mountains. The Brazilians entered Bologna with other Allied troops on April 21, and marched into Parma on April 25. From there, the FEIB marched into German territory around the Taro River and liberated Fornovo di Taro on April 29. The FEIB reached Turin and the French border as Germany surrendered in early May 1945. The small Imperial Air Force also participated in combat in Italy, while the Imperial Navy engaged in operations in the Atlantic along the Brazilian coast but also in the zone between the south Atlantic and the Straits of Gibraltar.

At home, the government's nationalist movements were unable to contain a genuine democratic and liberal movement which demanded more civil liberties, democratic reforms and an end to the Vargas Liberal regime, judged to be growing more authoritarian and archaic by the day. In the 1944 provincial elections, the Liberals suffered their first real setbacks. In Minas Gerais, Benedito Valadares retired to run in the 1945 elections, and it was a Conservative, Milton Campos, who was elected on a liberal platform supported by former Prime Minister Artur Bernardes, Afonso Arinos de Melo Franco and José de Magalhães Pinto. José Américo de Almeida, a Liberal dissident also running on a liberal platform won in Paraíba. While Adhemar, who built a clientelist network and was distancing himself from Vargas, held on in São Paulo, and Ernesto Dorneles (Governor since 1943, when Cordeiro de Farias left office to fight in Europe) also won a full term outright in Rio Grande do Sul, the Liberals lost control of the provincial base which Vargas had so keenly and smartly built starting in 1930.

The Conservative opposition, energized by the results, pressured the government to proclaim a general amnesty in April 1945, notably freeing Luís Carlos Prestes. In May 1945, the government removed the ban on the Brazilian Communist Party (PCB) and the Brazilian Integralist Action (AIB). The Conservative opposition, still known formally as the Conservative Democratic Union (UDC), fell under the leadership of the generation of the tenentes, notably Eduardo Gomes, who won the party leadership in late 1945. Other members of the UDC included Carlos Lacerda, José de Magalhães Pinto and Milton Campos. In the 1945 campaign, despite the strong Getulist organizations around Hugo Borghi, there was a clear shift in the popular mood. The economy was very strong, the war was won; but Vargas' regime was seen as old, stale, archaic and authoritarian. Gomes' Conservatives campaigned on a platform calling for democratic reforms, a more liberal economic policy (Gomes fell short of calling for the abolition of the minimum wage) and a stringently anti-communist foreign policy. On the far-left, the newly legalized PCB attracted a good share of previously Liberal urban voters, while the newly re-legalized far-right led by Salgado was struggling to regain its pre-war electorate, with voters wary of authoritarianism and fascism discredited by the war (though Salgado insisted he was not fascist). The military (which could not vote), which had supported Vargas beginning in 1930, turned, out of opportunism, against the Liberals in 1945. Dutra resigned from the War Ministry in April 1945 to run for Senate, while Góis Monteiro, Vargas' other main high-ranking military ally, was conspicuously absent and fell short of supporting Vargas. A new Socialist Party (PSB) was founded, close to the Conservatives, and stringently opposed to Vargas' corporatist union structure. It was led by João Mangabeira, the brother of the former Conservative Governor of Bahia. In the end, the Conservatives won extremely narrowly, but fell quite short of the 126 seats needed for a majority.

Chamber of Deputies

Conservative Democratic Union 40.1% winning 112 seats (+20)
62 DS, 50 PLS
Liberal Party of Brazil 38.4% winning 109 seats (-38)
62 DS, 47 PLS
Brazilian Communist Party 10.1% winning 18 seats (+18)
6 DS, 12 PLS
Brazilian Integralist Action 4.8% winning 5 seats (+5)¹
0 DS, 5 PLS
Radical Alliance 4.5% winning 5 seats (nc)
0 DS, 5 PLS
Brazilian Socialist Party 1.2% winning 1 seat (+1)
0 DS, 1 PLS
Others 0.9% winning 0 seats (-6)
0 DS, 0 PLS

Senate
 
Conservative Democratic Union 30 (+3)
Liberal Party of Brazil 29 (-4)
Brazilian Communist Party 1 (+1)
 


¹ Independents, mostly banned Integralists, had won 6 seats in 1942, so the correct figure would be a net loss of one seat for the Integralists

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Great update!

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

A bit odd that no butterflies affected the U-507, but a great update nonetheless.

[k-onmmunist]

This TL gets better and better with every update

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Interlude: 1945-1948

Eduardo Gomes took office on July 1, 1945; marking the end of fifteen years of Liberal Getulist dominance over Brazilian politics and the election of a conservative alternative, one based around the old liberal reformist values of the tenentes. Gomes' Conservative government was a minority cabinet, though it received official supports from the Radicals and the PSB in addition to the unofficial support of Salgado's Integralists and a few Liberals.

Gomes' cabinet expanded to include left-wingers and former Liberals. Former Liberal Governor of Rio Grande do Sul, Osvaldo Cordeiro de Farias, became War Minister. Octávio Mangabeira, the Bahian Conservative, became Foreign Minister. Juarez Távora became Minister of Infrastructure and Development, Virgílio de Melo Franco became Minister of Justice, José Eduardo do Prado Kelly was given the Finance portfolio while Pedro Aleixo got Health and Education and Juracy Magalhães became Minister of Labour. João Mangabeira, the brother of the new Foreign Minister and the leader of the PSB, refused any cabinet position but vowed to support the government.

The Liberals were not in disarray. They remained under the leadership of Vargas, who installed himself as Leader of the Opposition in Rio. It was the first time that Vargas sat in the opposition.

Gomes announced to the new Parliament that his goal was to "undo the wrongs done to democracy by Vargas' fascistic government in the past fifteen years." The top wrong was, of course, the 1937 Second Additional Act. As in 1844, the new government pushed through a Clarification Act in January 1946. The Clarification Act returned some powers to provinces, such as the right to local policing and oversight over local commerce and public services, but most notably removed the so-called 'three-fifths clause' which prevented a non-confidence motion from passing unless it received three-fifths support in both chambers. The Tribunal of Public Safety was finally abolished, though Vargas had progressively sidelined it after 1942, and the Emperor's power to appoint caretaker administrators in provinces, communities or districts was removed. The Clarification Act passed with unanimous Conservative, Communist, Radical, Integralist and Socialist support in the Chamber of Deputies.

In terms of foreign policy, the United States and Brazil continued to enjoy close relations. With the emerging Cold War, the military and the government took a conservative turn in favour of Washington DC, rejecting communism. Rio de Janeiro did not break diplomatic relations with Moscow, however, nor did it ban the PCB like a number of American Senators had been lobbying for it to do. Local political considerations played into Gomes' decision to keep the PCB legal.

The post-war era had given Brazil a large stock of foreign cash reserves, and the government's policy had been to make use of them. In order to fund development projects, such as the construction of new roads, the government dove into the reserves, which resulted in the rapid depletion of the country's rich foreign assets. Inflation started to rise, as the government printed money to cover the high budget cuts. Some neoliberal thinkers within the Conservative Party attacked the government over its failure to follow through with its promise to make cuts in spending. However, the new goal of the Conservative government was in fact to kill Vargas' working-class base. Gomes wished to harvest the votes of workers by not repealing the social legislation passed by the Liberals, but at the same time he slowly picked away at the corporatist trade union structure, which remained closely linked to the Liberals. In addition, Gomes resisted calls by some Liberals and Conservatives to ban the PCB outright, as Gomes saw the PCB as a major up-and-coming rival for the traditionally Liberal working-class.


Prime Minister Eduardo Gomes

Gomes' attempts to court the working-class were quite short-lived. In a by-election for a working-class district in the industrial hinterland around São Paulo, the Conservative candidate polled extremely poorly - 19% against 26% for the Communist and 48% for the winning Liberal candidate. At the same time, Vargas was moving to re-organize the Liberal Party. An analysis of the 1945 results showed that the working-class voters which had delivered a landslide to Getulio starting in 1933 had either not voted or gone over to the PCB. Vargas' new strategy was to directly court the working-class. At an extraordinary party congress in late 1946 ahead of the 1947 provincial ballot, the Liberal Party renamed itself the Brazilian Labour Party (PTB). From the opposition benches, Vargas attacked the Conservative government on a markedly left-wing nationalist tone. Yet, behind the left-wing PTB, an internal division appeared within the party between Vargas' more conservative supporters and his left-wing urban union supporters.

The 1947 provincial elections were to be a major test for the Conservatives as well as Vargas' new left-wing nationalist rhetoric, and his new PTB. In Minas Gerais, a PTB rising star, Juscelino Kubitschek, won in the country's most watched contest against incumbent Conservative Governor Milton Campos. In Rio de Janeiro, Ernani do Amaral Peixoto held on for another term, facing tough PCB and Conservative opposition. In São Paulo, Adhemar de Barros, who had broken with the Liberals by 1946, was re-elected as an Independent through an alliance with the PCB against Hugo Borghi (PTB). Adhemar's victory showed the strength of his clientelistic network and his appeal to working-class voters. In Rio Grande do Sul, Ernesto Dorneles won a second outright term.

The 1948 general election was to be key. The Conservatives promised more reforms, a tough fight against inflation (which neoliberal thinkers derided in the absence of commitments to cut spending) and a close alliance with the United States. The PTB, led by Vargas and running on his personal popularity and image, attacked the government's economic policies as overtly pro-rich and 'unfair', and also called on Brazil to take ownership of its rich mineral and economic wealth instead of "living in dependency, as in 1920, on the good wills of foreign investors and states". The PTB's campaign was stringently nationalistic, and was axed towards working-class voters and unions. The PTB and Conservatives both attacked the PCB as being the root of political instability and accused of it of being the pawns of Moscow. However, the PCB was helped by Luís Carlos Prestes' candidacy to the Senate.

Chamber of Deputies

Brazilian Labour Party 39.8% winning 114 seats (+5)
65 DS, 49 PLS
Conservative Democratic Union 38.0% winning 102 seats (-10)
56 DS, 46 PLS
Brazilian Communist Party 11.8% winning 22 seats (+4)
8 DS, 14 PLS
Brazilian Integralist Action 5.8% winning 8 seats (+3)
1 DS, 7 PLS
Radical Alliance 3.1% winning 3 seats (-2)
0 DS, 3 PLS
Brazilian Socialist Party 0.9% winning 1 seat (nc)
0 DS, 1 PLS
Others 0.6% winning 0 seats (nc)
0 DS, 0 PLS

Senate
 
Brazilian Labour Party 31 seats (+2)
Conservative Democratic Union 27 (-3)
Brazilian Communist Party 2 (+1)
 


next: Vargista return...

[Хahar 🤔]

It should be "Varguista" and not "Vargista", no?

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It should be "Varguista" and not "Vargista", no?

Both terms are correct, as is Getulist (which is used by most historians).